Boston College vs. Michigan State: NCAAF Week 4 Predictions and Picks

NCAAF – Michigan State Spartans at Boston College Eagles
Where: Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
When: Saturday, September 21st at 8:00 PM EST
Watch: ACC Network

Betting Odds

Spread: Boston College -6.5
Total: Over/Under 45.0

Bill O’Brien’s Boston College Eagles will play host to the undefeated Michigan State Spartans under the lights on Saturday night. This Big 10/ACC matchup will be a battle of hard-nosed, gritty programs that have already exceeded the expectations set for them at the season’s start. The Spartans and the Eagles stack up pretty evenly on paper, but some slight differences may prove to be critical components leading one to victory over the other. With the Big 10 favoring the pro-style, run-heavy offense philosophy, and the ACC showcasing speed and firepower, this game will have a little bit of everything and be an exciting watch from start to finish. Which playstyle will reign supreme? Let’s take a look at how things will shake out on the gridiron in Boston.

Michigan State Betting Preview

There weren’t many people that believed all that strongly in the Michigan State Spartans coming into the 2024 season. But after a 3-0 start to the season, the Spartans are turning some heads nationwide. Their schedule had two seemingly easy wins against Florida Atlantic and Prairie View A&M, but the Spartan’s resilient victory on the road at Maryland was by far their most impressive to date. Michigan State was able to grind out a win as 7.5-point underdogs.

Statistically, the Spartans are actually more efficient through the air than they are on the ground. Quarterback Aidan Chiles has averaged 216.7 passing yards per game and notched four touchdowns. His completion percentage is a bit lower than the Spartans would like at 56.8% and his four interceptions on the year demonstrate a need to improve ball control. Michigan State spreads the ball around to their receivers well, and Montorie Foster (13 – 113) and Nick Marsh (11 – 232) have been the top targets through week 3. Foster has been the go-to in short-yardage situations, and Marsh can stretch the field and keep opposing safeties honest in their coverage.

The running game showcases running back duo Nate Carter and Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams, who are both averaging over 5 yards per carry. Aidan Chiles has also attempted 18 rushes on the season, but is used mainly to punch the ball into the endzone as he leads the team with two rushing TDs. Defensively, the Spartans can get to the quarterback in the backfield. They have eight players who have recorded a sack, and the disruption created by their front seven cannot be understated. The defense ranks 37th nationally in total yards allowed and 66th in points allowed per game.

Boston College Betting Preview

Boston College was rolling through their first two weeks, highlighted by a season-opening win against Florida State as 16.5-point underdogs. Last week, they battled right-to-end against #6 Missouri but ultimately fell 27-21. From a betting standpoint, BC has covered the spread in all three of their games. Behind a strong offensive line, the Eagles have averaged 204.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks them 43rd in all of college football. Dual threat QB Thomas Castellanos has been a problem for opponents as he can escape pressure and get outside the pocket to extend plays or scramble for additional yardage on broken plays.

The BC backfield features four players, including Castellanos, who have 20+ rushing attempts this season and can use this playstyle to control the clock and wear down their opponents. Castellanos has only thrown for 196.3 yards per game, but his 9-2 touchdown to interception ratio demonstrates his proficiency and accuracy. Wide receiver Lewis Bond has been the primary beneficiary of the passing game, but the Eagles will incorporate their tight ends and running backs into the passing game as well. Six different Eagles have caught TDs on the year, so the Spartans will have their hands full and will be unable to focus in on a specific pass catcher.

The defensive unit has been strong against the run, only allowing 85.7 yards per game to opponents (ranked 37th). The secondary has been a bit leaky, but as a unit, they only concede 13.3 points per game, meaning they can stand strong in the red zone. The key to success for Boston College will be to control the game and keep Michigan State’s offense on the sideline.

MSU/BC Point Spread Pick

 
My Pick: Boston College -6.5 (-110)
Boston College will be wearing their iconic “Red Bandana” uniforms in this matchup, paying tribute to Eagle’s alumni Welles Crowther, whose heroic actions on 9/11 saved countless lives. There will be an extra level of hype at Alumni Stadium on Saturday as the Spartans head into town. While Michigan State has a better overall defensive unit, they struggled on the road in their game against Maryland, which also features a semi-mobile QB. Thomas Castellanos is the best running QB the Spartans have faced and his ability to extend plays, coupled with his passing accuracy will be troublesome. I don’t trust that Aidan Chiles will keep the football out of the hands of the BC defense, giving the Eagles short fields and the ability to win the time of possession. If the Spartans are forced to play catch-up, this game will get away from them quickly. The weather shows that the field will be wet leading up to kickoff, so I give the advantage to the BC rushing attack. The Eagles are the play here.