Boise State vs. UNLV: Picks and Predictions for this Friday Night Matchup

Boise State Broncos (5-1 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) vs. UNLV Rebels (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 9

Date/Time: Friday, October 25, 2024 at 10:30PM EDT

Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada

TV: CBS Sports Network

The Boise State Broncos come to Allegiant Stadium for a big Mountain West Conference matchup with the UNLV Rebels on Friday night. Each team has only one loss on the season and is unbeaten in conference play, making this a win that would go a long way for the victor this week. After winning twice on the road as the Rebels try to atone for their only loss of the season, they now return home seeking a truly huge win against a strong-looking Boise squad whose only loss on the season was a squeaker to Oregon in Eugene. They had last week off, as they await this tough road-test, winning their previous game in Hawaii, 28-7. UNLV, meanwhile, is coming off a Saturday game where they beat Oregon State 33-25.

Can UNLV Make the Jump?

Having served notice under head coach Barry Odom last season that the Rebels were a new team, we saw it kick up a notch this season, with UNLV briefly flirting with a national ranking for the first time in the program’s history. A loss at home where they melted a bit late at home, falling to a good Syracuse team, was a bad setback. But still, these are upon the grounds where they will be judged—big-time Mountain West games. And UNLV still has to go back to 1976 to recall the last time they got the better of Boise State. They’ve done amazing this season, especially with how they rebounded with their starting QB flying the coup. They’ve averaged 46 points in their last four games. That’s all good and well. They still have this mountain to climb in the form of Boise State.

While one would stop short of attributing any particular weakness to the UNLV run defense, they’ve still shown enough cracks to give rise to the possibility of a game-defining performance from Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty, who by October 12 (Boise’s last game) has racked up 1248 yards and 18 touchdowns. The idea of him coming into this spot with fresh legs in a high-stakes spot has to give even the most-optimistic UNLV backer cause for concern.

However, this is not one of the better Boise defenses you will see. Even at points when winning, there have been bumpy passages with a defense that has given up 45 to Georgia Southern, 37 to Oregon, and 30 to Utah State. The UNLV offense is not without options in a battle of firepower. Since coming into action after Matthew Sluka departed, QB Hajj-Malik Williams has been excellent, already the team’s leading rusher and making gains aerially, too. He is connecting well with a really good receiver in Ricky White, III., who has nine touchdowns. Other than Williams’ legs, they have a deep cast of backs who contribute, sprinkling in big plays here and there, as the same can be said for their aerial crew. The UNLV offense has a lot more guys in contributing roles than the Boise State offense, but sometimes it’s better to be on the side that has the equalizing nuke that the Broncos have in the form of Jeanty.

Good Spot for Boise?

While being on the road in their last game, the Broncos were off last week. Granted, UNLV’s win over Oregon State on paper might appear to be more of a struggle than it actually was. Nevertheless, they are coming off two straight road games on a short week. Boise could have used the rest after a demanding start to the season, along with Jeanty getting a breather after a heavy workload. But this would have also been a good time for UNLV to catch a breather and instead they get a short week with Boise State on the menu. How this all resonates in totality for the purposes of this game is questionable, but at the very least the timing of it seems to shake out a bit in Boise’s favor.

Is This the Year for UNLV?

They put the overtime out-of-conference loss to Syracuse behind them, came back strong, and now get a home-game that might represent UNLV’s biggest-ever regular season game. You’d think that has to resonate with these players. And while in any way forecasting UNLV to beat a ranked team they haven’t beaten in almost 50 years seems crazy, it makes sense on some levels just from a football standpoint. I do not want to characterize Boise as a one-trick ponies who rely on their superstar, but there are aspects of their team that aren’t that wonderful. QB Maddux Madsen is pretty good, but he still hasn’t really stood out yet. Wide receiver Cameron Camper has stepped up nicely this season, but they don’t really have that true difference-maker aerially to balance off with Jeanty. And their defense, while deep in the pass-rush category, hasn’t been terribly stout, and strangely, they only have one pick on the whole season thus far. UNLV’s meanwhile, has 13 interceptions on the season.

Take the Points

Granted, there’s a leap of faith required to go with UNLV in this spot. It’s been so long since they won. Jeanty could just go off as the Broncos run away with it. When betting on big MWC games like this, there’s just a greater comfort that comes with Boise, the longtime kingpin of this conference. Something just tells me that Williams can make some magic happen in this spot, with the Rebels having enough to throw at Boise State and a vulnerable defense to hang in there with a shot to win at the end. I’ll take the points.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the UNLV Rebels plus 3 points.

Have you seen our new hire RBD’s articles? He’s a former sportsbook director that knows how to beat the books! Check out his articles in our sports betting section!