Boise State vs. UNLV: Betting Preview & Point Spread Insights

Backing Boise

Pick and analysis for the Mountain West Championship Game

It’s “Good news, Bad news” time.
(Always get the bad news out of the way first.)
Bad news – I have five different handicapping methods for choosing college football games to bet on, three for totals, two for sides, plus a bunch of subcategories within each unique system. But I only have ONE game that qualifies for a play this week in the conference title games.
Slim pickings, no choices.

But . . .

Good news – WF2 says UNLV should be the Fav against Boise.
WF1 says, “I don’t think so.”
And the point differential between the two is greater than 7.
And you KNOW what that means.
It’s * time.

The Stupid Asterisk Play rewarded Faders with a perfect 4-0 record last weekend.
I used Missouri for a winner in my weekly college football article and I used the Phoenix Suns in the PredictEm NBA forum.
I didn’t use ‘Bama or the Chargers and both covered the spread (and no, I haven’t stopped kicking myself in the ass for not buying them, too.)
So, new rule – take the thinking out of it and just buy every one from now until the end of the season!
Starting with the boys from Boise.

These two teams met earlier this season with the visiting Broncos coming out on top 29-24. Now they get to take on the Rebels at home on the Smurf Turf. And they’re only laying four points or fewer.

On the offensive side of the ball, Boise owns every category: points scored, passing yards, rushing yards, and TOP (time of possession.) At home, they’re 3-3 ATS while UNLV is 4-2 on the road.
The Rebels have slight edges in the defensive categories but consider this little nugget of handicapping gold: Boise is 8-0 their last eight games against the Rebels.

Want more?
They won every one of the games by more than the spread on this game.

Want more?
They won seven of the eight by double digits.

Want more still?
Their average margin of victory is 22 points.

All that, and an Asterisk play too.

When to Buy Recommendation The line opened Boise -5.
It’s down to -4 at most houses.
No way it reaches -3 but -3′ is possible since it’s heading in that direction. The game’s not till Friday, might as well wait a day or two and monitor the line. I’ll post the number I get in the PredictEm forum.

Recap: 1-0
Record: 19-8 (including USC Under)

Review: Banked a W with Mizoo -3.
With four minutes left in the 4th quarter Arkansas scored a TD to go up 21-20. Tigers only needed a field goal on the closing drive. I was in trouble laying three points. But then QB Brady Cook dropped back to pass. No receiver was open but the middle of the field was and he ran straight down the center of it, untouched, for a 30-yard TD. I had to sweat the final two minutes watching Arkansas drive down to the Mizoo 32, but the defense held on for the seven-point victory.

And that is where the regular season ends. In my very first article here I gave my goals for every sport, every year:
1 – Don’t lose money
2 – Finish with a profit, ANY profit
3 – Reach for the Holy Grail, 67%
4 – Have fun
Mission accomplished, all four goals set and met. At 19-8 on picks from my articles I not only reached the Grail, but surpassed it, coming in at 70%.
I “Battled the Books” and beat their ass, like Sitting Bull beat Custer, like Sonny beat Carlos, like Ike beat… well, let’s pretend I was going to say Stevenson and not you know who.

One of the reasons I was able to finish the regular season with a profit is The Stupid Asterisk Play, 19-9, 67% on college football games.
Another reason I had a good season, NP Unders.
In my college football article dated September 5th, 2024, I described my best play:

“2020: 28-4, 87% (23-4 shared on the web, dated and time stamped for non-believers.)
2021: 34-21, 63%
2022: 34-32, 51%
2023: 21-17, 55%
And now, the really big question – what’s going to happen in 2024?”

2024 is in the books and I now have the answer: NP Unders 23-13, 63%.
All plays, recommended buys or not, were shared here at PredictEm.
Year number five with this play was a success.
Five year total: 140-87, 61%.
Can’t wait till next year.
But next year is a long way off, we still have the bowl season ahead of us.
What works during the regular season doesn’t necessarily work during the postseason. This is true in all sports. No worries though cuz I have a different set of handicapping methods I use for bowl season, some with as many as 20 years of data charted.
I’ll still track the methods I used during the regular season, but I’ve got additional ammo in my bowl arsenal. Take a minute to go back and read my column dated August 30, 2024 and you’ll see what I mean.

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