Boise State vs. San Jose State Prediction: Expert Pick Based on a 70% System

Sports Betting Prediction for Boise State at San Jose State

I have a play on the Broncos/Spartans game on Saturday that’s hitting at 70% this season. But first, before I get to the details of my pick, a few words on a career path I did not take.

How do you get a job as an announcer on football games if you don’t know the basics of the game?
Syracuse at BC last Saturday, BC up by 2 points, seven minutes left in the game.
The Eagles are on the Syracuse 25-yard line. The announcer says, “If they score a touchdown here they’ll go for the two point conversion so they can be up by 10 points.”

No, knucklehead. They kick the extra point to go up by nine points, making it a two-score game with time running down.
BC did score a touchdown, and…
they kicked the extra point.
Like they should have.
This is why the late great Howard Cosell didn’t like ex-jocks in the booth.

I wouldn’t last one day in the broadcast booth. If I’m announcing a game, I’m damn sure going to have money on it. Which means as soon as a player or coach does something stupid, hurting my chances of winning my bet, I wouldn’t be able to refrain from yelling a few curses.
I’d try using the “I have Tourette’s” excuse, but I’m pretty sure I’d get canned anyway.

But I digress.
On to this week’s pick.

I’m spoiled.
I don’t have any of my NP Unders (21-11) for college football this weekend (there’s an outside chance that Washington St/New Mexico may qualify based on late line moves, check the forum for updates.)
I also don’t have any of The Stupid Asterisk Plays to Fade in college (5-11) or pros (2-8.)
(The Stupid Asterisk Play is now 2-5 in college basketball, so remember to check the forum for plays.)

I have other systems with decent records to play ON or Fade, but I don’t want to use them. As we head down the road towards the end of the season, I want to have my top performers working for me.

As I updated my charts this morning I see that one of my systems for betting on totals, T1, is 12-5 on Unders. This week, Boise State vs San Jose State qualifies as a play.
That 12-5 record is actually a higher W percentage then the NP Under, but I prefer the NP spot because it has five years of winning history, it’s a proven commodity.
I just started doing T1 this year, it has no history.

So I’ve got a 12-5 stat from my unique handicapping systems, let’s look at the standard stats, with a hopeful eye towards the Under.

The Broncos are 6-3 to the Over.
No help there.
The Spartans are 3-6 to the Under.
That’s more to my liking.

Boise St is 2-2 Ov/Un when they’re on the Rd. That’s an improvement from their overall number.
San Jose St is 1-3 to the Under at home. I like that.

Just three of the Broncos nine games stayed Under the number on this game (62) but more recently three of their last four stayed Under, so I’ve got that going for me.

On the Spartan side, six of their nine games stayed Under the number on this one, including four straight.

Last year when these two met they combined for 62 points. I’m looking for one point less in this year’s contest.

When to Buy Recommendation

The books opened the game at 61′. Right now, the board is split between 61′ and 62. (You can get the 62 at our sponsors Bookmaker and Bovada.)
I don’t have a real good feel for where this one goes so I’m buying it today, thinking there’s a better chance of it dropping than rising.

Boise St/San Jose St Un 62.

Recap: 0-1
Record: 15-6
(I was going to count the USC Regular Season Wins money in my current record but since it won’t be paid until the season ends I’ll wait until it’s in my bank account before adding it to my record.)

Review: I lost with the Geo/Miss game. I got the 28 points I needed from the Rebels, but Georgia, the number three team in the country at that time, only managed to put up a measly and embarrassing 10 points.

Belated October Accounting:
I’ll update the forum record in the forumWebpage picks finished at 12-7, 63%.
(It’s actually 12-5 on sports that I handicap, but some genius had the idea of throwing out a few units for fun on the Orioles because they used to be his favorite team. And the bastards couldn’t score a single run at home. I surrendered two units on a sport that I don’t handicap or even watch because it bores me. There’s a lesson in there – stick to what you know!)

The 12-7 brings my five month total here at PredictEm to 66-45.5.
That’s 59% with over 110 picks given.

And the winning continues, as I’ve already got a few units banked in November.

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