No. 5 Boise State Broncos (6-0) 3-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U at Hawaii Warriors (2-4) 2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U Saturday October 24, 2009 Honolulu, Hawaii 11:05 p.m. EST
By Wilson of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Boise State -24/Hawaii +24
Over/Under: 58.5
The Boise State Broncos managed to escape Tulsa last week with a 28-21 win to remain 6-0 and in the BCS hunt. Although the Broncos probably failed to impress the BCS committee a win is a win. A solid win commented Broncos head coach Chris Petersen.
Boise State trailed in this game twice but Kellen Moore responded with two consecutive drives that resulted in touchdown passes as the Broncos regained the lead for good. Moore was 22 of 32 for 187 yards and 3 touchdowns. Austin Pettis pulled in 4 catches for 63 yards and a touchdown. Running back Doug Martin carried the pigskin 23 times for 112 yards to help the Broncos rushing attack.
Hawaii is searching for a win after losing at Idaho last weekend in Moscow 35-23. The Warriors QB Bryan Moniz was 30 of 42 for 360 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Moniz got his second start behind center after the season ending injury to Greg Alexander.
Boise State is 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U on the road. Hawaii comes into this game averaging 25 points per game but they are allowing 27.2 to their opponents. The Broncos are averaging 38.2 points per game and giving up 15.5 to the opposition. Boise States defense allows 200 yards less per game than the Warriors who give up over 400 yards ppg.
Hawaii is usually tough at home but it will be an extra special effort if they expect to knock off the No. 5 team in the country. The line on this game has opened at Hawaii +24. Boise State knows better than look past any opponent, and to be favored by three touchdowns plus a kick is a statement in itself.
The Broncos and Warriors have split this series the last two years. Then No. 15 Boise State won 27-7 last year on the blue turf in Boise. Hawaii beat the Broncos in Honolulu 39-27 in 2007 when both teams were ranked in the top 25; Boise State was No. 17 and Hawaii was No.14 at the time.
Boise State is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The under is 11-4 in Hawaii last 15 conference games.
The QB matchup will go to Kellen Moore as he has a 69.1 completion percentage to the Warriors backup, Bryan Monizs 56.6 completion percentage. Moore has 16 touchdowns and 2 INTs while Moniz has 3 TDs and 3 picks.
Hawaii enters this game as losers of their last 4 in a row and 6 of their last 8. Boise State has won 6 in a row and 9 of their last 10.
The Broncos have the edge in most of the major categories including points per game, yards allowed, penalties, punting, and fumbles caused. But, are the Broncos capable of losing this weekend despite the -24? They just might fall into that possibility.
Boise State has not been the polished, almost error free team they have been in the past. The Broncos have been sloppy especially in their last two games which should have been huge blowouts based on their opponents UC Davis (34-16) and Tulsa (28-21). The fumbled snaps, dropped handoffs, botched punts and field goals have left the Broncos open to criticism and doubt as to wether or not they deserve to be mentioned with the other elite programs who are in the hunt for a BCS Championship Game.
I think the Broncos revise their argument and clean up the errors this weekend in Hawaii.
Wilsons Prediction: Boise State 42, Hawaii 10. Luck to ya.