Boca Raton Bowl: WKU Hilltoppers vs. JMU Dukes ATS Pick

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs. James Madison Dukes (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Boca Raton Bowl

Date/Time: Wednesday, December 18, 2024 at 5:30PM EST

Where: FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida

TV: ESPN

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers take on the James Madison Dukes in the Boca Raton Bowl on the 18th at FAU Stadium. This bowl actually pulled a couple decent teams for this game, with the 8-win Hilltoppers coming off a second-place finish in Conference USA, winning 6 of 8 games in conference. The Dukes, meanwhile, also won 8 games this season out the Sun Belt Conference and look to add a nice little nugget to their season with a bowl-win. The season didn’t end well for the Dukes, however, with two straight defeats, including a wild 35-33 overtime loss to Marshall in their regular season finale. The Hilltoppers, meanwhile, also had their issues down the stretch, losing 3 of their last four, including an unsightly 52-12 loss to Jacksonville State in the Conference USA Title game on December 6. Let’s break this one down!

Implications for Both Teams

For James Madison, this is all a bit new coming out of the FCS, with this being their third season as a member of the Sun Belt Conference. Head coach Bob Chesney took over this season and had the Dukes rolling well with an 8-2 start to the season. The lull at the end had them entering this spot a bit of a question mark while still having shown enough fire this season to warrant them being a decent-sized favorite in this bowl game. I’d look for the Dukes to be pumped-up to notch their first-ever bowl win as a program.

In many ways, this was a typical Hilltoppers season under head coach Tyson Helton, who has gone either 8-5 or 9-5 for four straight seasons. It’s hard to not notice how coach Helton seems to do well in having his teams ready for these spots, with three straight bowl wins, including a win in this very bowl game in 2021. After getting crushed by Alabama in their opener, they won 7 of 8 games. They then dropped two bad ones, losing to Louisiana Tech and Liberty. Some order appeared to be restored with a win over Jacksonville State in their regular-season finale, but that same team came back the very next week to hammer the Hilltoppers by 40 points in the conference title tilt. It makes WKU seem like a dicey proposition at season’s end.

Good Spot for James Madison?

All things considered, things went pretty well for James Madison after their head coach fled to Indiana with a large group of players departing, as well. There was supposed to be a pretty big dip from last season’s 11-win team, and while they did falter down the stretch some, it was an overachieving season in some ways for the Dukes and Chesney, who seems now to have been a really good hire. I’d look for the Dukes to bring some serious rushing upside into this game against a WKU defense that is hardly bankable.

Dukes’ quarterback Alonza Barnett, III. was a handful for opposing offenses, having thrown 26 TDs against just four picks, adding a lot with his feet with 7 TD runs. However, on the last play of the game against Marshall, he suffered an injury and will not be available for this game. Neither will Washington transfer Dylan Morris. That leaves Billy Atkins, a veteran in this program, but also one who hasn’t gotten a ton of work. He will lean on a good back in George Pettaway for support while dishing it out to talented pass-catchers where their depth is their strength. The same can also be said for their backfield, where they can employ a multi-pronged approach that could have a Western Kentucky run-defense scrambling for answers. There have been times in recent weeks when this aspect of the WKU profile has been abysmal. Maybe losing Barnett can be mitigated by James Madison just running a ton in a spot where that looks like a good option.

Food for Thought

With there still being some time heading into this game with the more-complex landscape of college football player-movement, a proactive stance on either team would be accompanied by little to no personnel news. As of now, it looks like an all-hands-on-deck scenario for both teams, with no news on the player-movement front. That, of course, doesn’t count James Madison being without their starting QB for this game, a pretty bad personnel hit coming into a bowl game.

Western Kentucky is in a spot where they have some betting appeal, getting points against a good team but one that also puttered down the stretch in spots. When the Hilltoppers started taking off this season and they were cast in the role of large-sized favorites, they hit a wall in a big way. This role as underdogs does have some appeal for a dangerous team that still has some upside with QB Caden Veltcamp, RB Elijah Young, and wide receivers Kisean Johnson and Easton Messer. And let’s face it, this James Madison defense doesn’t look as good away from home and ebbed overall as the season progressed, so who knows?

Take the Points

The idea of James Madison running it down the throats of a Western Kentucky defense that might struggle to find answers is a cause of massive consternation for any prospective Hilltoppers backer. You could easily tune in and find out that this was really what this whole game was about. But between JMU’s own issues late this season, including losing their QB, WKU’s record in bowl games under Helton, and a spread getting near double-digits, a tickle on Western Kentucky can be justified. I’ll take the Hilltoppers and the points.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers plus 9 points.

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