Big Ten Picks: Nebraska at Indiana Predictions

NCAAF – Nebraska Cornhuskers at #16 Indiana Hoosiers

Where: Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)

When: Saturday, October 19th at 12:00 PM EST

Watch: FOX

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Neb +6.5/Ind -6.5

Over/Under: 50.5

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One of the best games in the entire Saturday slate of college football is set to kick off the noon hour as the #16 Indiana Hoosiers will play host to the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Both teams have six games under their belt coming into this matchup and as is typically the case with the upper echelon programs in the Big 10, this one is going to be epic. For those of you who like the mean and gritty play style, you are looking at a must-watch game. The contrast in styles and implications of a loss has turned this game into one that may change the landscape of the 2024 season. These are two programs who know one another well but have not played since October of 2022. Both the Cornhuskers and the Hoosiers will take the field Saturday, having had a lot of early success, but only one can walk away victorious. Will it be the hard-hitting, smashmouth Nebraska, or will it be an Indiana team that has proven to be one of the most prolific offenses in the nation? Take a look below as I break down both squads and give insight into who I trust more with my money on the field this weekend.

Nebraska Cornhuskers Breakdown

The Nebraska Cornhuskers seem to have something going for them in terms of getting their program back in the spotlight. Former Carolina Panthers head coach Matt Rhule, now manning the sideline for Nebraska, has rebuilt this football team in his likeness. The Cornhuskers enter the weekend with a 5-1 record and currently sit in sixth place in the Big 10. Their lone loss on the year came in Week 4 against a strong Illinois team. With Ohio State looming next week, Nebraska needs to handle business against the Hoosiers and enforce their will. Nebraska’s offense is quite well-rounded but slightly favors the pass over the run. As a unit, they average 28 points per game and nearly 400 yards of total offense. Behind 5-star freshman Dylan Raiola, the Cornhuskers average 242.5 passing yards per game and are converting 3rd down opportunities at a 43.6% rate. Raiola has thrown for 1,345 yards so far this season and boasts a 3-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has spread the ball around efficiently but favors Jahmal Banks and Isaiah Neyor as his two top targets. Both aforementioned receivers are just shy of 300 receiving yards this year and have caught 6 of Raiola’s nine touchdowns. Surprisingly, no Cornhusker pass catcher is averaging more than 50 yards per game. On the ground, Dante Dowdell is the clear lead back for the red and white. His five rushing TDs lead the team, and he has accumulated 334 yards on just 74 carries. Nebraska will also rely on Rahmir and Emmett Johnson to carry the ball and move the chains, allowing them to control the clock and keep their opposition’s offense on the sideline. That is very much their recipe for success. Relying on a defensive unit that ranks 31st in the nation in total yardage allowed is a tremendous strategy. Nebraska, on average, holds opponents to just 84.2 rushing yards per game and only 11.3 points. They have been slightly less effective when defending the pass but still keep opponents under 200 yards per game. The Cornhuskers have generated seven interceptions, 19.5 sacks, and three forced fumbles, highlighting Rhule’s emphasis on defensive strength.

Indiana Hoosiers Breakdown

The Indiana Hoosiers present the biggest challenge that this Nebraska team has seen all season. Coming into this matchup at 6-0 and ranked 16th in the country, Indiana has dismantled every opponent they have faced. One caveat to the Hoosiers’ success may be that no opponent they have played so far possesses a record above .500. Indiana is led on the field by QB Kurtis Rourke, who has been one of the more accurate passers in all of college football. His 73.8% completion rate has allowed him to rack up 292 yards per game and 14 touchdowns against only two interceptions. Rourke can get the ball out quickly but can also buy enough time to hit the big play downfield. His number-one receiver is Elijah Sarratt, who has caught 29 balls for 513 yards and two touchdowns. There are four other receivers on this Indiana roster who have caught double-digit passes from Rourke and are all averaging over 10 yards per reception. The rushing attack is led by the two-headed monster of Ty Son Lawton and Justice Ellison. Between the two, they have accounted for 13 touchdowns and over 700 yards on the season. The Hoosiers are the number 2 scoring offense in the nation, averaging 47.5 points per game, and can collect yardage at alarming rates, as evidenced by their 521.5 yards per game of total offense. They are tough to contain for even the strongest defensive units. Defensively, a weak schedule has allowed the Hoosiers to feast, and they are currently in the top 20 in total yards allowed, as well as rushing yards allowed per game. As a group, they have accounted for 19 sacks in 2024 while adding four picks and four forced fumbles.

My Pick: Indiana Hoosiers -6.5 (-110)

As I mentioned, this game is going to be a highly contested affair from start to finish. I do think Nebraska can hang around, but after a dismal offensive performance against Rutgers, I think the firepower that the Hoosiers possess offensively will be too much to keep up with. Dylan Raiola has struggled when he has faced pressure this year, and Indiana has the ability to get into the backfield and disrupt plays early. The pace is going to be slow, but Indiana has shown an ability to connect on big plays and flip the game in a matter of seconds. I’m riding with Indiana at home.

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