Big Ten Pick: Indiana Hoosiers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

Indiana Hoosiers (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS)
When: Saturday, November 16th, 2019 – 12:00 PM ET
Where: Beaver Stadium – State College, PA
TV: B1G Network

Point Spread: IU +14.5 / PSU -14.5
Total: 51

Poll Rankings: Penn State -20

Takeaways From Week Eleven

The boys from the Sycamore State, the Indiana Hoosiers come into this contest on a four-game winning streak complemented by an impressive 5-1 ATS record in their previous six outings. IU was last in action on November 2nd when it hosted the Northwestern Wildcats for a conference match-up. The Hoosiers covered with ease defeated Northwestern 34-3 in light of closing as an eight-point favorite.

The Nittany Lions suffered their first loss as Saturday when they traveled to the Twin Cities to face off with the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Closing as a 6.5-point favorite, Penn State fell to Minnie by a final tally of 31-26. The resultant loss sent Penn State out of the Top 10 in the Coaches Poll.

How the Public is Betting the Indiana-Penn State Game

At the moment, the consensus seems more or less down the middle in this one as 52% like the Hoosiers here with the two converted touchdowns plus the hook. The Nittany Lions opened as a 14-point favorite, but the line has since moved upward by half of a point to its present state of PSU -14.5.

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The Historicals

Just last year, Penn State traveled to Bloomington, Indiana to face off with the Hoosiers on their turf. Closing as a 14-point road favorite, Penn State failed to produce a cover in a narrow 33-28 win over the Hoosiers. PSU has won its last five fixtures against Indiana.

Betting Trends

There are several trends that will steer action toward Penn State and put Indiana in a position to be undervalued. To begin, the Home Team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. This narrative will excite Penn State takers. Moreover, Indiana is 1-3-1 ATS in the previous five contests between these two sides. For Over/Under players, the Under has cashed in four of the last five matches in Happy Valley.

Injury Concerns

Heading into this B1G clash, Indiana Quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. has been ruled out for the remainder of the season due to a broken collarbone sustained in IU’s last match-up. Penix has served as a spell to incumbent starter Peyton Ramsey who will now operate the IU offense entirely under his administration.

Why We Like Indiana To Cover

With all the hype that surrounded Michigan in the pre-season along with the emergence of Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State, and now Minnesota in the national spotlight over the course of the 2019-2020 season, the Hoosiers have very quietly put together an impressive campaign that no one has recognized. This match-up against a vulnerable Penn State team that could be flat after seeing its College Football Playoff hopes perhaps go up in smoke is the perfect stage for the Hoosiers to take advantage. The differences in morale will likely be instrumental in determining the outcome of this match-up. From the perspective of X’s and O’s, I also can’t help but think that Penn State was exposed on both sides of the football. From an offensive perspective, Penn State Quarterback Sean Clifford tossed three interceptions against a solid Minnesota defensive despite throwing three picks all season-long heading into the match. Clifford could find another an equitable amount of trouble against this ninth-ranked Indiana passing defense that gives up just 176.3 yards per game through the air. On the defensive side of the ball, Penn State was exposed as it gave up over 30 points to Minnesota despite coming into the season as the second-ranked scoring defense in America giving up single digits to the opposition. With the Hoosiers scoring 34 points per match (34th in the FBS), this Indiana team in many facets is a carbon copy of the animal that Penn State faced last week in Minnesota, which could spell big trouble for the Nittany Lions.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Indiana +14.5

Some other sports betting sites may suggest that it is indeed the Nittany Lions who are undervalued. However, I disagree adamantly. The upset potential is significant in this contest, but be that as it may, we have plenty of points to work with here taking back two-converted scores plus the critical half-point. Indiana will come in under the number in a game that will likely be decided by seven or fewer.