Big Ten Championship: Penn State vs. Oregon Betting Insights & Pick

Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. Oregon Ducks (12-0 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Big Ten Conference Championship Game
Date/Time: Saturday, December 7, 2024 at 8PM EST
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
TV: CBS

The Penn State Nittany Lions take on the Oregon Ducks at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Saturday in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game. For the Ducks, they are entering this as the top-ranked team in the nation, owners of a pristine 13-0 record with a clear path to the College Football Playoff. Penn State, at 11-1, looks to keep it going, winning their fourth in a row on Saturday since suffering their only loss to the Buckeyes with an easy-breezy 44-7 win at home over Maryland. Oregon, meanwhile, capped things off with a 49-21 win over Washington on Saturday. Who should we get behind in this title game out of Indy on Saturday?

Stakes

It’s difficult to explain what’s truly at stake this week. With the expanded CFP format, what is really the motivation for two teams who are already locked into the CFP to win a conference title? That can be parsed out all day, but I think a normal game-breakdown is what is called for. Oregon will be looking to cap off what has been a phenomenal debuting season in a new conference, a tidbit that makes their ascent this season even more impressive. And while Penn State has earned their standing this season, there is this feeling that they more or less cruised into this spot while really losing the only game of the year that mattered against Ohio State. This gives them a chance to enhance their standing and go into the CFP with the knowledge that they belong with the best. In addition, as longtime conference members, maybe the title of Big Ten Conference Champions means more to them.

Angles for Both

Through no fault of their own, the Nittany Lions had it easy this season, favored in all their games but one and mostly by lopsided amounts. And along the way, there will still some close calls—a one-score win over Bowling Green as five-touchdown favorites, an OT win over a so-so USC team, and the one-point win at Minnesota a few weeks ago. Those sandwich the loss to Ohio State, making Penn State a team that just doesn’t seem that exciting heading into these elevated contexts. That’s why it’s important to go from that to a position where they’d have the best win in college football this season should they win this. And the aggression that James Franklin is showing with his approach and with how strongly they finished with the wipeout of Maryland, I think the free-swinging Nittany Lions have a shot this week with QB Drew Allar, his deep run-game with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, along with a decent one-two punch at receiver with Tyler Warren and Harrison Wallace, III.

Oregon is 12-0 and the top team in the country, so there isn’t much you can say. Still, when it comes to betting, a 6-6 record against the spread shows they’re vulnerable in this sense at least. The only real sweats they’ve gotten from won-loss perspective was the early-season squeaker against Boise State, then the one-point win over Ohio State in October. Other than that, it’s been mostly easy, even if the Ducks fell short on some big-sized point spreads. Still, after struggling against a pair of the better teams they played and failing to create any separation, why can’t an 11-1 Penn State team do similar?

Edges for Oregon

The Ducks have a thorough and complete offense that can achieve levels of electricity not as readily available for the Nittany Lions. With Dillion Gabriel good with his arm and legs, he has gotten a lot out of this Oregon offense this season. Jordan James and Noah Whittington add a lot of juice out of the backfield, with Gabriel slinging it to a slew of different pass-catchers where their strength is their variety and depth. And not every offense that got things done against Penn State this season has been half this good.

We see the Ducks this season really shining on the defensive side of the ball. Between guys like Jordan Burch, Matayo Uiagalelei, and others, the pass-rush can be immense—among the best in the nation. It’s an extremely disruptive defense, and that is matched by their stoutness, with opponents eclipsing 21 points of scoring this season just once with opponents held to 14 or fewer points seven times. They’re going to be on the fast track at Lucas Oil Stadium, and I’m not sure that this Penn State offense has the speed, explosiveness, or game-changing talent at receiver to thrive in this setting. It’s really a matchup quirk, where in this stadium against this defense, you’d prefer to see a different opponent if you were looking to take a side against Oregon. I don’t think the Oregon defense is a good matchup for Allar and his weapons, with their own defense likely to struggle to find answers at some point in this one.

Lay the Number

I can imagine a Penn State team where this might mean a little more to them overall, pulling out all the stops and being a really dangerous opponent for the Ducks this week. I think a special effort is required for them to buck all the matchup snafus that appear to be in their midst this week. I just picture the Nittany Lions hitting a bit of a wall in the form of this Oregon defense, while the Ducks’ offense pecks away, creating a bit of separation, and crossing the wire with the win and cover. I’ll take the Ducks.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Oregon Ducks minus 3.5 points.

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