Big 12 Title Odds & Predictions for 2022

With only ten teams in the Big 12 (for now), there isn’t any guesswork when it comes to the schedule. Everyone plays everyone, so there aren’t any advantages or disadvantages to work out when figuring out who the champion might be.
Of course, there hasn’t been a lot of guesswork in this league lately because this has been Oklahoma’s title to lose for most of the past ten years. The Sooners won every title from 2015 to 2020, and last year marked the first time since 2009 that the league title game didn’t feature the Sooners. Even without the Sooners, last year’s matchup featured a team from Oklahoma against a team from Texas, which has been the matchup in four of the past five Big 12 title games. Over the past 20 years, only Kansas State (2003 and 2012) has managed to crack the string of schools from Oklahoma and Texas winning the league’s title.

And this year doesn’t look likely to change that streak. With Kansas State and Iowa State breaking in new quarterbacks, it looks like Oklahoma’s biggest competition will come from Baylor and Oklahoma State, the two participants in last year’s league title game. But the Sooners are also breaking in a new quarterback, which could change the equation in this league. Here are the best bets on the board in the Big 12.

Best Bet: Oklahoma, +175

If Dillon Gabriel can become the latest quarterback to go to Norman and resurrect his career, the Sooners will become the team to beat in the Big 12 by a pretty wide margin. Oklahoma couldn’t really figure out what it wanted to do at the quarterback position last year, as both Spencer Rattler and Caleb Williams were disappointing last year and cost the Sooners in losses to both Baylor and Oklahoma State. Both are gone now, but Gabriel has left UCF for Oklahoma and is reunited with his old offensive coordinator in, Jeff Lebby.

That should help, as should having some experienced pass catchers in Theo Wease and Drake Stoops at the receiver positions. If Marvin Mims can build off the freshman year he had with a quarterback mess, Oklahoma will boast one of the most feared wide receiving corps in the Big 12. Throw in an offensive line that returns three starters and an experienced defensive mind in Brent Venables as the new coach, and there’s a lot to like here. The Sooners get Baylor and Oklahoma State at home this year, and their toughest true road game is likely at Iowa State. The Cyclones are always a thorn in the Sooners’ sides, but if Oklahoma gets through that trip to Ames, they’re likely to reach the Big 12 title game, where they always seem to play their best.

Best Value Play: Baylor, +700

Based on talent and coaching, Baylor should not have the fourth-best odds to win the Big 12. The Bears should be second, but everyone wants to believe that this is the year for Texas, which pushed the Longhorns to a mere +230. But the Bears are the defending Big 12 champions and return quarterback Blake Shapen to take control of the offense, which should put Baylor a step ahead of much of its competition.

As long as the defense can produce a solid effort again, the Bears will be in the thick of things for the league title. That said, the schedule maker certainly did Baylor no favors: the Bears have to go to both Oklahoma and Texas on the road and get Oklahoma State with the Cowboys coming off a bye week. But the Bears have now been there before and boast one of the toughest defensive lines in the country, and that’s absolutely worth taking a shot at +700. Note: If you’re going to bet futures, you need to place those wagers at an online sportsbook that you trust to be in business at season’s end. The answer to this question is Everygame Sportsbook, as they’ve been in business since the 1980’s! Tjhey offer some pretty sweet incentive bonuses too!

Best Longshot Play: Kansas State, +1500

If Adrian Martinez can avoid the turnovers that plagued him in Lincoln, Kansas State absolutely has a chance at the league title. The Wildcats have a top running back in Deuce Vaughn and a pair of experienced tackles to open holes in the line, and all they need is a solid quarterback under center to make the most of this situation. Martinez could be the guy in Manhattan, but Will Howard is also going to get a chance if Martinez struggles or goes down. That’s not a bad thing because Kansas State has two solid options under center to complement what should be an excellent running game. The Wildcats return their entire defensive line as well, so they will be one of the more experienced teams in the conference this season. If they can avoid an early stumble against the likes of Oklahoma, the Wildcats have the talent to contend for the league crown.

Team to Avoid: Texas, +230

With the Longhorns, I’m in full believe it when I see it, or in the case of Texas, if I see it. The Longhorns keep claiming they’re back after winning one random Big 12 game they shouldn’t have, and it never works out for them. Texas should be competitive with its skill players returning, but with a redshirt freshman in Quinn Ewers under center, the Longhorns will likely see this unit struggle to get on the same page at first. With a trickier-than-it-should-be test at Texas Tech and the Alabama hangover looking to affect this team, don’t try it.

Overall Pick: Baylor, +700

For everything that Oklahoma has going for it (good coach, quality quarterback, returning skill players, solid defense), Baylor seems to have it, too, and more of it. The Bears have been there before, and I would rather place my money on a quarterback who just won the Big 12 title game over one who’s a reclamation project from a G5 power. The Bears have an abundance of talent and a stiff defense that held Oklahoma State to 16 points in winning the Big 12 title last year. They might very well lose to Oklahoma in Norman this year, but I don’t think they’re going to lose to Oklahoma again in Arlington. The Bears make sense as the pick. Bet your college football futures for FREE by taking advantage of a 125% real cash bonus up to $500 in free bets when you use bonus promo code PREDICTEM at GTBets!