Big 12: Texas Longhorns vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Pick

Texas Longhorns (6-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS)

When: Saturday, November 10th, 2018 – 7:30 ET
Where: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX
TV: FOX

Point Spread: TEX +1 / TT -1
Total: OFF
Poll Rankings: Texas (15) / Texas Tech (NR)

Takeaways From Week 10

The Longhorns come in off a gut-shattering loss at home against the now No. 8 West Virginia Mountaineers. The game was a shootout that was decided in the last 20 seconds of regulation when Country Roads elected to go for two and converted proving to be the decider in the 42-41 barnburner. The Longhorns have now lost their previous two outings by a combined four points and as a result, have tumbled out of the Top 10 while also placing their Big 12 aspirations in severe jeopardy.

The Red Raiders showed that they are not a team to take lightly as they closed as a 14-point underdog at home against the No. 7 Oklahoma Sooners and OU, needless to say, had their hands full until they got away with a 51-46 win. In fact, the Sooners were the benefactors of good fortune when Tech had found the end zone with 6:54 remaining in the game with a chance to draw level with a converted two-point attempt. Instead of landing the two, Oklahoma would run back the attempt creating a four-point swing which ultimately shaped the final result after OU would score on their ensuing possession to drive away. Sadly, a similar set of circumstances transpired for Tech in the week previous at Iowa State.

How the Public is Betting the Texas-Texas Tech Game

Initially, we have seen a lean come in on the Horns here with 57% of the public liking the Burnt Orange as the slight road dog. We have yet to see any line movements take place in response to this but nevertheless, there is an excellent chance this market can close at a pick-em or Texas being favored if such a trend continues.

The Historical

The Chancellor’s Spur rivalry has been an even series as of late, as both teams have won two of the last four meetings. Though both squads enjoy home field advantage, the away team has won the last four contests between these two Lone Star State foes. Last year, Texas Tech defeated Texas 27-23 in Austin.

Injury Concerns

Texas Tech Quarterback Alan Bowman is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game due to lung problems. This is significant as Bowman spearheads the Red Raiders air attack, throwing for 2,638 yards, 17 touchdowns and just seven interceptions on the year while completing 69% of his passes. The Red Raiders were not afraid to dabble in their depth at the quarterback position as they have had three different signal callers take snaps this year. However, Bowman has been their best option at QB and is essential to a TT win this Saturday.

When Texas Tech Has the Ball

When Texas Tech has the ball, everyone and their mother knows what comes next…they start tossing bombs. The Red Raiders are an aerial specialist as they own the second-best passing attack in America accumulating 375.6 yards through the sky. This is a team that also averages 42.7 points per game (9th nationally). They get a favorable matchup here against a Texas defense that was exposed by West Virginia quarterback Will Grier last Saturday and presently gives up a 103rd ranked 256.4 passing yards per game to opponents.

When Texas Has the Ball

The Longhorns offense is loaded with talent across the board, most notably their gunslinger quarterback Sam Ehlinger who is also known as a fullback with an arm. Ehlinger, as mentioned previously, leads the team with nine rushing touchdowns but has also thrown for 2,171 yards through the air while hurling 16 touchdowns and just two picks. Slammin’ Sam has a lot of choices on the outside when it comes to receiving, including Colin Johnson, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, and Devin Duvernay. Johnson and Humphrey are both 6’5 creating a lot of mismatches against opposing defensive backs.

Betting Trends

The fact that the Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in the last four contests between these two teams will attract bettors toward the Horns here this week as a marginal underdog. For those players that like to play totals, the Under is also 4-0 ATS in the previous four collisions.

Weather Report

The weather calls for a mild afternoon in Lubbock with mostly sunny skies and temperatures hovering somewhere between 43 and 63 degrees. There is almost no chance of precipitation and winds will be virtually non-existent.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Texas Tech -1

With a loss like the one that Texas suffered last week, one must wonder how their psyche will be heading into this contest in their follow-up. The Longhorns had their hearts stabbed with a dagger, and in many instances, a let-down can follow this kind of defeat as it was a very bitter pill to swallow. On the contrary, Tech will be fired up for this outing as they get this one at home with a rabid fan base hungry to earn a second consecutive win in this rivalry series. For a long time, Texas has been the big dog in the state when it comes to football supremacy followed closely by TCU. However, if Tech gets a win here, they will have victories over both outfits and can crown themselves as the king of the state for 2018. After letting the game slip through their hands against OU last week at home, this team will be hungry, and we have to like their prospects in terms of value in a virtual toss-up market. Spot the point.