BIG 12 Championship: Iowa State vs. Arizona State Pick

NCAAF BIG 12 Championship Game – Iowa State Cyclones vs Arizona State Sun Devils
Where: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)
When: Saturday, December 7th at 12:00 PM EST
Watch: ABC

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Arizona State -2.0
Over/Under: 49.5

Conference championship week is upon us, which is bittersweet from the perspective that the college football season is winding down but is always one of, if not the most, exciting weekends of the year. In the BIG 12 conference championship, we will see two squads ranked back-to-back in the season’s final rankings. The Iowa State Cyclones and the Arizona State Sun Devils will head to the home of the Dallas Cowboys for an early afternoon matchup to determine who is the best in the conference. Playoff implications are at an all-time high, with the winner gaining a berth in the expanded format. Both of these teams have had very successful 2024 campaigns and would be deserving of a spot in the playoff, but it will all come down to how they perform on the field this Saturday. There are many similarities between them, but also some glaring differences that may have a major impact on determining the outcome. I have broken down the regular season performances of both Iowa State and Arizona State and have identified the team I trust most to get the job done. Keep reading below to find out who you should back and why.

Iowa State Preview

The Iowa State Cyclones entered the conference championship game at 10-2 on the year and finished second in the BIG 12. They have been a very well-rounded group on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball and can create problems for any opponent they face. Led by quarterback Rocco Becht, the Cyclones offense has generated 429.0 yards of total offense per game and 258.0 yards through the air. Becht has accounted for 20 passing touchdowns against eight interceptions and thrown for over 3000 yards on the season. His number one receiver, Jayden Higgins, has been a major contributor in the passing game and leads the way for Iowa State with 80 receptions, 1068 yards, and 9 receiving touchdowns. The receiving corps is truly a two-headed monster as Jaylin Noel has also eclipsed 1000 yards on the year. While the Cyclones slightly favor the pass over the run, they have been quite efficient in the ground game as well.

They rank 65th in the nation while averaging 164.6 rushing yards per contest. Carson Hansen and Abu Sama lead the way on the ground and have each been awarded more than 100 carries this season. Hansen is the primary goal-line back and has found the endzone a whopping 11 times. On defense, the Cyclones are one of the best in the country at defending the pass. They rank 3rd nationally and have only allowed an average of 156.9 passing yards per game. Some of this is due to the opponents they have faced on their schedule, who are much more run-dominant, but it is impressive, nonetheless. Iowa State holds their opposition to an average of just 19.6 points per game, which is good for 18th in all of college football.

Arizona State Preview

On the other side of the field, the Arizona State Sun Devils have had similar success. They also found themselves 10-2 on the season and wound up in 1st place in the conference. Coming into this game on a 5-game winning streak, Arizona State has a ton of momentum. This squad is also extremely balanced, but unlike the Cyclones, they tend to lean a bit more run-heavy offensively. Quarterback Sam Leavitt has been highly efficient, completing nearly 63% of his pass attempts. Leavitt has thrown 21 passing touchdowns against just five interceptions, once again highlighting his ability to limit mistakes. The offense as a whole averaged 224.8 through the air and 430.5 total yards per game on average.

Where ASU can separate themselves is on the ground. They are top 25 in the nation in rushing yards per game and account for nearly 200 yards per game in that phase. Leavitt can mix in some rushing attempts, but the true force to be reckoned with is running back Cam Skattebo. Skattebo has had one of the best rushing seasons in the nation after accounting for 1398 rushing yards and 17 total touchdowns. Skattebo has also been the second leading receiver on this Sun Devils team and is a true focal point of the offense. Arizona State is nearly impossible to get off the field when they have the ball and convert third down opportunities at a 47% rate. Defensively, the Sun Devils are stronger against the run than the pass and have only allowed 116.8 rushing yards per game on average. ASU allows opponents to score 21.5 points per game.

My Pick: Arizona State Sun Devils -2.0 (-110)

Anything can happen in a neutral site conference championship game, but I am riding with the Arizona State Sun Devils in this matchup. Skattebo is going to be a tall task to contain, especially since no opponent has been up for the task yet this year. He can hurt the Cyclones on the ground and through the air and will help ASU chew clock and sustain drives. Iowa State has been weaker against the run and I believe his presence, along with the ability for timely quarterback runs, will be the key differentiator in this game. Both of these teams can score at will and average over 30 points per game, but I trust the Sun Devils to control things and enforce their play style. 

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