Bet the Total: Crimson Tide vs. Volunteers Pick

No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 8
Date/Time: Saturday, October 19th, 2024, 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Neyland Stadium Knoxville, TN
TV: ABC

Betting Odds

Point Spread: ALA -3/TENN +3
Moneyline: ALA -135/TENN +115
Total: 55.5

SEC playoff hopefuls will collide inside Neyland Stadium this Saturday as the no. 11 Tennessee Vols look to defend Rocky Top against the no. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide. Ironically, both the Crimson Tide and the Vols find themselves in very similar situations going into this Saturday’s big showdown. The Volunteers have been hyped up with expectations of a college football playoff appearance. However, the Vol’s undefeated season was shattered by an upset at the hands of Arkansas. The Vols attempted to get back on track, but perhaps more questions were raised following an ugly 23-17 overtime victory against the Florida Gators. Needless to say, Tennessee needs a confidence boosting style effort to get things headed back in the right direction.

Speaking of needing a confidence boosting effort, the same can be said for the Alabama Crimson Tide who just narrowly escaped back to back losses in similar fashion to Tennessee. After getting upset by Vanderbilt in perhaps the biggest surprise loss of the season, Alabama barely pulled out a home victory against the South Carolina Gamecocks in a 27-25 victory. The Alabama offense and QB Jalen Milroe struggled heavily against the South Carolina pass-rush. The Alabama defense was able to force a few big turnovers, and the Crimson Tide offense hit a few big plays late to pull out the win while avoiding back-to-back losses to unranked teams since year 1 of the Nick Saban era. Needless to say, Alabama fans are also in shaky territory as their once dominant program has failed to meet the eye test!

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Tennessee Volunteers Betting Analysis

While I was a bit surprised to see Alabama struggle with South Carolina, I was the least bit surprised to see Florida go toe to toe with the Vols. In fact, I urged bettors to back the Gators in last week’s betting preview because I have serious concerns surrounding this Tennessee offense. Following a performance where the Vols forced three turnovers and could only produce 312 yards of total offense, those concerns have not changed. Simply put, the quarterback play behind Nico Iamaleava has been subpar, and the success of this Vols offense has hinged on the running ability of Dylan Sampson, who has produced 699 yards and an outstanding 15 touchdowns through the opening six games. Sampson’s touchdown mark currently ranks 2nd behind Heisman Trophy frontrunner Ashton Jeanty.

The problem that I foresee for Tennessee is that Alabama still has a very tough and physical defense that is designed to defend the run. Alabama QB Jalen Milroe is very good and can make the big plays needed in a game like this to produce a victory. The problem for Alabama is that Milroe is essentially having to do everything with the exception of WR Ryan Williams. The Vols defense has been exceptional against the run, allowing just 79.7 yards per game, which is the 5th best rushing defense in college football. If Tennessee can take away Milroe’s running ability and get pressure in the backfield, Alabama’s offense could face struggles again.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Tennessee Volunteers Betting Trends

• Alabama is 16-2 SU in the last 18 games.
• Alabama has hit the “over” in 6 of the last seven games.
• Alabama is 16-1 SU in the last 17 games against Tennessee.
• Alabama is 6-2 ATS in the last eight games against Tennessee.
• Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games..
• Tennessee is 7-1 SU in the last eight games.
• Tennessee is 18-1 SU in the last 19 games at home.
• Tennessee has hit the “over” in 9 of the last 12 games against Alabama.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Tennessee Volunteers Betting Prediction

I believe the total for this game is much higher than it should be, given the match-up and defensive advantage that both teams have in this contest. While I lean towards the Crimson Tide, which has the best chance to break this game open, I believe the “under” is the best play!

Jay’s Pick: Take the under 55.5

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