Bet Ten Value Bet: Northwestern vs Purdue 11/19/22

Northwestern Wildcats (1-9 SU, ATS 3-6-0) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (6-4 SU, ATS 3-5-0)

Date: Saturday, November 19th

Location: Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN

TV: FS1

Point Spread: Wildcats +18/Boilermakers -18 (Move the line 20 points with a massive college football teaser found at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)

Money Line: Wildcats +690/Boilermakers -1206

Over/Under: 49

RECENT FORM

Heading into this week’s game, the Wildcats have a record of 1-6 in Big Ten play. Their overall record currently sits at 1-9. This season, the Wildcats have been favored in 3 games while posting an ATS mark of 3-6-0. Their average over-under betting line is 44.15 leading to an over-under record of 4-5-0.

In their last game, Northwestern entered as the 17.0-point underdogs vs Minnesota. The Wildcats ended up losing the game by a score of 31-3. For the game, Northwestern threw for 206 yards but did not come up with a passing touchdown. Their overall completion percentage came in at 46.9%. In the rushing game, the Wildcats did not find the endzone, while finishing with a total of 72 yards on the ground.

The team’s leading quarterback is Ryan Hilinski, who comes into the game with a passer rating of 71.59. Heading into this week’s game, he has a total of 1644 passing yards. So far, the team’s most productive wide receiver is Malik Washington, who has caught 55 passes for a total of 616 yards. The Wildcats have turned to running back Evan Hull a total of 179 times for a total of 755 rushing yards.

In Big Ten play, the Boilermakers have a record of 4-3. the team’s overall record is 6-4. This season, the Boilermakers have been favored in 2 games while posting an ATS mark of 3-5-0. Their average over-under betting line is 41.8 leading to an over-under record of 5-3-0.

In their previous game, the Boilermakers picked up a 31-24 home win over Illinois. This was an impressive victory as they were also the 6.5-point underdogs. The team finished the game by throwing three touchdown passes. Overall, the Boilermakers had 237 passing yards on a completion percentage of 62.5%. On the ground, the team ended with one rushing touchdown while averaging 4.3 yards per carry for a total of 142 yards.

Aidan O’Connell heads into the game as the team’s top quarterback, with a current passer rating of 86.95 on a total of 2666 yards through the air. Receiver Charlie Jones heads into the game, as the team’s leader in receiving yards, with a total of 1010. The Wildcats have turned to running back Devin Mockobee a total of 145 times for a total of 732 rushing yards.

BETTING TRENDS

The Wildcats come into this week’s game, having covered just 10.0% of their last ten games. Their overall record in these games is just 1-9-0. Their last ten over-under record comes in at 4-6-0. Northwestern has a negative scoring differential in these games, averaging 15.3 points per game and allowing 28.2.

Through their last five road games, Northwestern has an ATS record of just 3-2-0. However, their overall record was 1-4-0 while averaging 15.6 points per game.

Against the spread, the Boilermakers have gone 4-5-0 over their last 10 games. Straight up, they have a record of 6-4-0. Their last ten over-under record comes in at 6-3-0. Purdue has a positive scoring differential in these games, averaging 29.6 points per game and allowing 25.2.

Through their last five home contests, the Boilermakers’ offense has averaged 32.2 points per game while allowing an average of 24.4. Purdue posted an overall record of 3-2-0 while going 1-3-0 ATS.

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KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Wildcats will look to improve their offensive output, as they are ranked just 128th in the NCAA in points scored, but will have a chance to put together a decent performance vs. a Purdue defense that is allowing an average of 25.2 points per game. One aspect of the game that could benefit a Northwestern offense that struggles to generate big plays in the passing attack is that they are facing off a Purdue defense that has yet to generate a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. So far, the Boilermakers are just 83rd in sacks per game.

So far, the Northwestern offense is averaging just 118.5 yards per game on the ground. This production has come on an average of 37.5 rush attempts per game (55th). This week, the Wildcats will be facing a Purdue defense that is ranked 36th in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they are averaging 94.5 yards per game when facing top 25 rush defenses.

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Boilermakers are averaging 26.7 points per contest. Although Purdue has struggled to move the chains on 3rd down throughout the season, they have a chance to take advantage against a Northwestern defense that is allowing an average of 28.2 points per game and has had its problems getting off the field on third down.

So far, the Purdue offense is averaging just 128.1 yards per game on the ground. This production has come on an average of 33.0 rush attempts per game (99th). The Boilermakers will be facing a Northwestern defense that is ranked 169th in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they are averaging 137.0 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

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