Bearkats vs. Miners Betting Odds & Predictions: Thursday Night Football

Sam Houston Bearkats (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) vs. UTEP Miners (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 6

Date/Time: Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 9PM EDT

Where: Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas

TV: CBS Sports Network

The Sam Houston Bearkats come to the Sun Bowl on Thursday for a Conference USA matchup with the UTEP Miners. Sam Houston has been surprisingly effective this season at 4-1 and coming off a comeback 40-39 win over Texas State on Saturday. Down 39-21 deep into the third quarter, the Bearkats added four scores to seal it. UTEP, meanwhile, has seen things go sideways after being on the road two straight weeks, losing 27-17 to Colorado St. two Saturdays ago. They now await the Bearkats in this conference matchup. Who should we be getting behind on Thursday?

Getting a Lay of the Land

UTEP has started slowly under first-year head coach Scotty Walden. Seeing them struggle is nothing new. A few 7-6 seasons in the last two decades has been their ceiling. Despite the proliferation of bowl games, this is a team that hasn’t won a bowl game since the LBJ administration. Still, despite their record, they haven’t been disgraceful, dropping their first game to Nebraska, a bad overtime home loss to Southern Utah, losing to Liberty but covering the spread, and then last week’s 10-point loss to Colorado State. And they were on the road three times, to boot. So maybe having last week off, while SHSU was in a tough game, while being nice and sunk in at home can make it so UTEP hits the field fresh and ready to roll.

In only their second season in the FBS and as a member of Conference USA, head coach K.C. Keeler has Sam Houston looking good at 4-1. They’ve now won twice outright as double-digit dogs, including last week’s win over Texas State. Their only loss was to Central Florida, but they’ve been otherwise pretty dependable, covering the spread in all four of their wins. It seems ahead of schedule for the Bearkats to already be competitive in only their second year since moving up from the FCS. And maybe we’ll see what they really have under the hood as they face the better teams from the conference, but so far, so good.

Trouble for UTEP This Week?

Other than the loss to a good UCF team, we’ve seen the Sam Houston offensive recipe proving to be pretty bankable. Junior quarterback Hunter Watson can sometimes be a bit dicey through the air, but with his rushing work, he’s a real weapon. Between him, Jay Ducker, DJ McKinney, and John Gentry, Sam Houston can apply a pretty nice run game. With dangerous receivers like Qua’Vez Humphreys, this offense can also mix it up, scoring between 31-40 points in all four of their wins.

While we haven’t seen a Sam Houston defense controlling games this season, there are some things they do well. They can be scored on while sometimes falling apart a little bit in the secondary. But we also see a pass-rush being applied, as this “D” is at least making plays along the way. We’ve seen turnovers, key stops, and the ability to adjust on the fly. Against Texas State, they spent most of the first 2.5 quarters getting flogged, only to tighten up late to help stage the big comeback win over their heavily-favored opponent.

What Can Texas-El Paso Do About It?

Again, sometimes you have to look at it as a spot. Granted, it doesn’t say much for UTEP football-wise when taking that route. But you have a Sam Houston team new to FBS in their second season. Coming off a hard-fought win, they now take to the road on the short week. UTEP didn’t play last week and is dug into their home quarters. And while UTEP themselves never seem to really benefit from being at home, it can still be an off-putting locale for opposing teams. Not every middling team that shows up to the Sun Bowl hits the field and ascends. In old El Paso, sometimes, it can be a big old grind.

At the same time, you have a Sam Houston team latching onto its first-ever FBS success, now looking to achieve some of that same windfall within their new conference. And it’s not a really difficult opponent, either, if we were to be frank. While UTEP put up 24 against Southern Utah, the defense they’re facing this week is exponentially tougher, and UTEP backers have to at least brace for the potential of a typical El Paso point output with that stick-in-the-mud running game they have, along with the former Austin Peay aerial connection of QB Skyler Locklear and Kenny Odom. At some point, I’m afraid they lose touch with the leader in this footrace.

Lay the Number

Laying double-digits on the road on Sam Houston isn’t a move that might provide much comfort. And if you were inclined to take a flyer on UTEP, this isn’t a bad spot at all—at home with a week off taking on a rising but still unproven team that fought hard last week for the win and getting a double-digit margin with which to work. And even if SHSU fell flat a little, it’s still not an easy number to cover in this spot. I just think the football and matchup-related stuff shakes out so poorly for UTEP, between Sam Houston’s playmaking ability on defense and their variety on offense. I see the Bearkats establishing some late separation and cruising home with the win and cover on Thursday. I’ll take Sam Houston in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Sam Houston Bearkats minus 10.5 points.

Bet your Week 5 NFL picks for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 when you enter bonus promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!