Betting on the Over in Baylor at West Virginia

As I often say, I like to stick with what works, and this week, I have a game that has three elements that have been working well for me this season:

1. – The team
2. – Stats from my personal handicapping methods
3. – Traditional stats

First, let’s start by looking at the team.
Two weeks ago, I used Baylor in an Over in their game with TCU.
The total was 63.
The Bears gifted me with 37 points, and the two teams combined for 71.

Second, let’s look at my systems.
The Baylor/TCU play came from my H/C (Hot/Cold) trend reversal spot, where both teams are trending for a total in one direction, and I look for the trend to reverse direction and go back the other way.
(Many, if not most, sports bettors look for trends or hot ‘cappers to jump on. Don’t jump on trends; it’s a sure way to lose.)

At the time of the Baylor game, the H/C play had a record of 6-11 on Unders, a 64% Fade. The current record is 8-13, still viable at a 61% Fade (anything over 58% is good enough for me.)

But what sold me on the Bears game versus the Mountaineers this week is the game also fits a subcategory I have, and this same subcategory was also in play for the Baylor/TCU game:
“When H/C says take the Under and the other method I have for handicapping totals says the game will go Over, the H/C record is 0-8.”

After Baylor/TCU two weeks ago, that subcategory’s record moved to 0-9, a perfect 9-0 Fade.

The current record for this particular subcategory is 2-9, which means it went 2-0 last week.
Did I sagely deduce that last week was a good week NOT to play the 0-9 Fade?
Of course!
(Not really. I just missed it while reviewing my data and looking for plays to bet on.)

For this wager on the Over, based on stats derived from my own methods for handicapping, I have an 8-13, 61% Fade and a 2-9, 81% Fade, making this a combined 10-22, 68% spot.
And with Baylor performing as expected in these two spots two weeks ago, I’m coming back with them again this week.

Third, traditional stats only add more fuel to my fire.
Baylor has gone Over the number for this game, 59, six straight times.
West Virginia’s only gone Over 59 in two of their last six games, but combined that’s 8 of 12, not bad for the Over.

Last year, Baylor and West Virginia combined for 65 points.
Two years back, they put up 83.
Three years ago, they scored 65.
Recent history points to high-scoring games.

All of those contests saw Neal Brown and Dave Aranda as head coaches, so the style of play (quick pace, deep passes) should be similar to those past meetings.

Since Sawyer Robertson took over at quarterback for Baylor, the Bears are averaging 35 PPG. He’s completing 58% of his passes and has a remarkable 17/4 TD-to-INT ratio. He’s also rushed for 252 yards, including a 41-yard rushing touchdown against Ok State two weeks ago.

And here’s another stat in favor of the Over – two weeks ago, QB Nicco Marchiol took over for Garrett Greene, and in each of those two games, West Virginia put up 31 points.
Robertson and Marchiol will both be under center on Saturday.

Baylor coming off a bye week doesn’t hurt either.
In 2023, off the bye, they put up 32 against Cincinnati.
In 2022, they scored 40 points against this very same West Virginia team.

West Virginia’s won the last two meetings, both by just three points (34-31 and 43-40), but I like Robertson and Baylor to come out on top in this one. They should break 35 points, so I’ll just need the Mountaineers to score their average PPG of 28, which shouldn’t be too difficult against a Baylor D giving up 35 PPG on the road

When to Buy Recommendation

Opened at 58 and is up to 59 right now, with a few 59′ starting to show and a lone 60 on my screens.
I expect it to go up by kickoff, so I’m buying it today.

This week’s play:

Baylor at West Virginia Over 59
Recap: 0-1
Record: 15-6

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