Baylor vs. West Virginia Predictions: Barking Home Dog?

Baylor Bears (5-4 SU, ATS 5-2)  vs West Virginia Mountaineers (5-4 SU, ATS 4-4)
Date: 4:00 EST Saturday, November 16th
Location: Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, WV
TV: ESPN2
Point Spread: BU -2.5/WVU +2.5
Money Line: BU -137/WVU  +115
Over/Under: 59

ESPN2 will be covering this Week 12 Baylor Bears vs. West Virginia Mountaineers matchup, set to kick off at 4:00 ET from Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown. The over/under line is currently at 59 points, and Baylor is favored by -2.5 points on the road. Both teams come in with identical 5-4 records for the season. The money line odds are -137 for Baylor and +115 for West Virginia.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Baylor Bears and West Virginia Mountaineers did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Baylor Bears have a record of 2-1. The Baylor Bears also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 70 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 3-0.

Baylor Bears Recent Form:

Baylor enters Week 12 against West Virginia with a 5-4 record, ranked 46th in our power rankings. They have an 89.9% chance of becoming bowl-eligible but only a 0.5% shot at winning the Big 12.

The Bears have gone 3-1 at home and 1-2 on the road this season. They’ve been favored in four games, going 3-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +6.8 points, and they’ve covered the spread in five of seven games.

Baylor’s over/under record stands at 5-2, with their games averaging 60.3 points. This week’s line is set at 59 points, compared to their average line of 53.1 points.

Heading into week 12, Baylor’s offense is averaging 33.6 points per game, ranking 26th in the nation. In our offensive power rankings, they are 36th. Sawyer Robertson has thrown for 1,783 yards with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 101.

Baylor is averaging 185.2 rushing yards per game. Bryson Washington has 576 rushing yards, seven touchdowns, and is averaging 6 yards per carry. Josh Cameron leads the receivers with 424 yards and seven touchdowns.

Defensively, Baylor has struggled this season, allowing 26.8 points per game. In their latest matchup, a 37-34 win over TCU, they gave up 34 points and 468 total yards, including 293 passing yards and 175 rushing yards.

Opponents have averaged 145.9 rushing yards per game against Baylor, while quarterbacks have posted a 56.8% completion rate and 229.4 passing yards per game, ranking Baylor 100th nationally in pass defense.

Away Injury Report

West Virginia Mountaineers Recent Form:

West Virginia enters Week 12 against Baylor with a 5-4 record, ranked 51st in our power rankings. They have an 85% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. At home, they are 1-3, while their road record stands at 3-1.

Their average scoring margin is +1.1 points per game, and they are 4-4 against the spread. On the road, they are 3-1 ATS, but just 1-3 at home. West Virginia has been favored in only two games this season, going 1-1 ATS as the favorite and 3-3 as the underdog.

The over/under line for this week is 59 points. West Virginia’s games have averaged 56.9 points, with an average line of 55.8. Their over/under record is 5-3, with six games having lower lines than this week’s total.

West Virginia’s offense has leaned heavily on their ground game, ranking 30th in rushing attempts and averaging 193.2 yards per game on the ground. They are 46th in scoring, with 29 points per game, and we have them 28th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 12.

Jahiem White leads the team with 572 rushing yards, averaging 5 yards per carry, and has scored five touchdowns. Quarterback Garrett Greene has thrown for 1,352 yards, with nine touchdowns and eight interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 78.

West Virginia’s defense will look to improve after allowing 24 points in their last game against Cincinnati. They gave up 436 total yards, including 279 passing yards, but did manage to force an interception. Cincinnati also ran the ball 43 times for 157 yards.

So far this season, West Virginia’s defense has allowed an average of 27.9 points per game. They rank 51st in the nation against the run, giving up 128.6 rushing yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged a 108.4 passer rating and 263 passing yards per game against West Virginia’s secondary.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Across their five previous road games, Baylor has an ATS mark of 2-3. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 1-4 while averaging 28 points per game.
• The West Virginia Mountaineers are 3-0 ATS in their last three home games and 3-0 straight-up.
• As the betting underdog, the West Virginia Mountaineers have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight-up record was 2-1.
• The Baylor Bears have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.

Free Pick

I really like West Virginia at home in their week 12 matchup vs Baylor. Look for the Mountaineers to put together a big game on the offensive side of the ball. Not only do I like them to cover at +2.5, but I’m taking West Virginia with some good odds at +115.

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