Baylor vs. LSU Predictions & Picks: Texas Bowl Best Bets

Baylor Bears (8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS) vs. LSU Tigers (8-4 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Kinder’s Texas Bowl Betting Preview
Date/Time: Tuesday, December 31st, 2024, 3:30PM (EST)
Where: NRG Stadium Houston, TX.
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: BAY -1/LSU +1
Moneyline: BAY -120/LSU +100
Total: 59.5

On New Year’s Eve, the Baylor Bears will collide with the LSU Tigers inside NRG Stadium for the Kinder’s Texas Bowl in an intriguing match-up between a pair of 8-4 (SU) opponents from the Big 12 and SEC. The current betting odds slightly favor the Bears who appear to come into this match-up with more momentum. Baylor had a rough 2-4 SU start to the season before catching fire during the 2nd half of the season that was captivated with six straight victories. As a result, the Bears will be the slightest of favorites when they attempt to capture their first bowl victory since the 2021 Sugar Bowl.

The Tigers’ 2024 campaign was much different than Baylor. Unlike the Bears who got hot during the 2nd half of the season, LSU seemed to lose steam down the stretch losing 3 of their final five games. Obviously, some of those losses were against quality teams like Texas A&M and Alabama. However, many could also argue that LSU’s victories lacked quality outside of the victory against Ole Miss earlier in the year. With some additional losses coming by way of the transfer portal following the end of the regular season, LSU may have some depth issues going into this match-up. However, the Tigers have proven to be a tough opponent throughout the year, which makes this match-up very interesting for Head Coach Brian Kelly, who continues to claim that LSU is among the nation’s best teams.

Baylor Bears vs. LSU Tigers Betting Analysis

From a match-up perspective, Baylor’s late season success has been largely possible due to their success running the football with tailbacks Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass who have combined for 1,600 yards and 16 touchdowns on the season. While Washington has been the most effective between the tackles, I believe both backs present a problem for a full 60 minutes against an LSU defense that has been very vulnerable against the run. Additionally, Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson is a serviceable asset that has thrown for 26 touchdowns and just seven picks on the season. If Robertson can help in any way and avoid the turnovers, the Bears’ offense could be a problem for the LSU defense.

For LSU, I definitely think we will see the offense produce scoring opportunities. QB Garrett Nussmeier has thrown for 3,739 yards this season. However, Nussmeier has had turnover issues and, perhaps more importantly, will be without leading WR Kyren Lacy and TE Mason Taylor. With WR CJ Daniels already declaring for the transfer portal, LSU will be without 3 of their top 4 pass-catchers going into this match-up. Additionally, Baylor’s defense has played better throughout the 2nd half of the season, especially against the pass. Therefore, in my opinion, LSU will likely need a big effort on the ground if they are going to take control of the tempo and pace of this game.

Baylor Bears vs. LSU Tigers Betting Trends

• Baylor is 6-0 ATS in the last six games.
• Baylor has hit the “over” in 7 of the last nine games.
• Baylor is 2-7 SU in the last nine games as the betting underdog.
• Baylor is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 games in the month of December.
• LSU is 1-4 ATS in the last five games.
• LSU has hit the “under” in 7 of the last nine games.
• LSU is 15-5 SU in the last 20 games.
• LSU has hit the “over” in each of the last six games against Big 12 opponents.

Baylor Bears vs. LSU Tigers Betting Prediction

Considering the momentum the Bears have shown during the 2nd half of the season, combined with the match-up advantage described above, I think they get the job done here in a match-up that likely means more for their program. As a result, I like Baylor to get the win!

Jay’s Pick: Take Baylor -1

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