Baylor vs. Houston ATS Pick: Can the Cougars pull off the upset at home?

Date: 7:00 EST Saturday, November 23rd

Location: TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX

TV: FS1

Point Spread: BU -7.5/UH +7.5

Money Line: Bay -302/Hou  +244

Over/Under: 50.5

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Kick-off for this Baylor Bears vs. Houston Cougars matchup is set for 7:00 ET at TDECU Stadium in Houston. The game will be broadcast on FS1, and Baylor comes in as the -7.5-point favorite on the road. The over/under line is currently at 50.5 points. The moneyline odds have Baylor at -302 and Houston at +244. Baylor has a 6-4 record, while Houston is 4-6 this season.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Baylor Bears and Houston Cougars did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Baylor Bears have a record of 2-1. The Baylor Bears also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 55 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 0-3.

Baylor Bears Recent Form:

Sitting at 6-4, Baylor is 37th in our power rankings heading into Week 13 against Houston. They have a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible, but only a 0.6% shot at winning the Big 12.

Baylor has been favored in five games this season, going 4-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +7.5 points per game, and they’ve covered the spread in six of eight contests.

The over/under line for this week is 50.5 points. Baylor’s games have averaged 62.7 points, with their over/under record at 6-2 and an average line of 53.8 points.

Heading into week 13, Baylor’s offense is averaging 35.1 points per game, ranking 19th nationally. They are 20th in our offensive power rankings. Sawyer Robertson leads the passing game with 2,112 yards, 20 touchdowns, and just four interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 105.

Baylor ranks 26th in passer rating and averages 243.8 passing yards per game. They are 42nd in rushing, with 185.4 yards per game. Bryson Washington has 699 rushing yards, ten touchdowns, and averages 6 yards per carry. Josh Cameron leads the receivers with 525 yards and eight touchdowns.

Baylor’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 27.6 points per game. In their recent game against West Virginia, they gave up 35 points and 499 total yards, including 262 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns.

Opponents have averaged 157.5 rushing yards per game against Baylor, ranking 95th nationally. Through the air, Baylor has allowed 230.2 passing yards per game, with quarterbacks completing 56% of their passes.

Away Injury Report

Houston Cougars Recent Form:

With a 4-6 record, Houston faces Baylor in Week 13. The Cougars have been stronger at home, going 3-2, compared to a 1-4 record on the road. They have only been favored in two games this season and hold the 82nd spot in our power rankings. Houston has just a 3.8% chance of becoming bowl-eligible.

Houston’s ATS record is 5-5, with a -8.5 average scoring margin. At home, they are 3-2 against the spread, and as favorites, they are 1-1 ATS.

Their over/under record is 1-9, with an average margin of -10.2 points. Houston’s games have averaged 36.5 points, and their average over/under line is 46.7 points. This week’s line is set at 50.5 points.

Houston’s offense has struggled this season, scoring just 14 points per game, which ranks 98th nationally. They are 118th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 13. Their third-down conversion rate is low at 26.3%, and they are 122nd in passing yards, averaging 152.9 per game. Quarterback Donovan Smith has thrown for 867 yards with a passer rating of 68, and he has more interceptions (8) than touchdowns (4) this season.

Smith has completed 65.4% of his passes, contributing to Houston’s 18th-ranked completion percentage nationally. The team is 41st in rushing attempts, averaging 144.1 yards per game. Re’Shaun Sanford II leads the ground game with 376 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry. Joseph Manjack IV has 326 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

Houston’s defense, ranked 38th nationally, has allowed 22.5 points per game this season. In their recent game against Arizona, they gave up 27 points, allowing 341 total yards, including 224 passing yards and two touchdowns, while also forcing an interception.

On average, opposing quarterbacks have completed 61.7% of their passes for 189.5 yards per game against Houston. The defense has faced 32.1 rushing attempts per game, allowing 134.1 rushing yards on average.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Across their last five road contests, Baylor has a 3-2 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 2-3, while averaging 34 points per game.
• In their last five games at home, the Houston Cougars have a straight up record of 1-4 while going 2-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 11 points per game in this stretch.
• Through their last five games as the underdog, the Houston Cougars have an ATS record of 3-2 and a straight-up mark of 3-2.
• The Baylor Bears have played well in their last five games as the betting favorite, going 4-1 straight up and 4-1 against the spread.

Free Pick

The matchup to watch in this one is Baylor’s offense vs Houston’s defense. Currently, Baylor is favored by -7.5 on the road, but I see the Cougars’ defense being able to make things tough enough for the Bears to keep this one in reach. Heading into Saturday night’s matchup, I really like Houston to cover at +7.5.

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