Baylor Bears vs. WVU Mountaineers Total Pick 10/13/22

Baylor Bears (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS)
When: Thursday, October 13, 7 p.m.
Where: Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, W. Va.
TV: FS1

Point Spread: BAY -3.5/WVU +3.5 (STOP wasting your hard earned money overpaying for -110 odds! Start laying only -105 TODAY at BetAnySports! Who doesn’t like to save money?)
Total: O/U 54.5

Outlook

Both teams took a week off last week after getting handled pretty easily by two of the three most likely teams to make it to the Big 12 title game. Baylor actually played well in the second half against Oklahoma State, but poor special teams work, and a weak first half left the Bears well behind against the Cowboys and made it impossible for them to catch up. The Bears did get their passing game going eventually, but by then, it was too late for it to matter.

For West Virginia, it was the exact same story against Texas. The Mountaineers didn’t show up in Austin until the fourth quarter, which left them staring at a 35-7 deficit before they managed to salvage a little pride in an eventual 18-point loss to the Longhorns. West Virginia tried to turn itself into a passing team on the fly against Texas, and the only thing the Mountaineers managed to do was completely take themselves out of the contest. The question here is whether West Virginia opts to try to be itself again or if the Mountaineers again take to the air because they’re facing an even better run defense than what Texas showed. If West Virginia can’t get its ground game on track here, it’s hard to see how they can hope to hang around with Baylor.

How the Public is Betting the Baylor/West Virginia Game

The public hasn’t really been able to affect the line enough because this game hasn’t been on the board for very long. The number might end up going to -4 soon, as 72% of the tickets have come in on the Bears. The total has dropped from 55 to 54.5.

Injury Concerns

Baylor:

Running back Taye McWilliams (undisclosed) is questionable.

West Virginia:

Tight end C.J. Donaldson (concussion) and cornerback Charles Woods (ankle) are out.

When Baylor Has the Ball

There’s no other way to say it: Baylor was simply flat last week. The Bears have had that problem in both of their losses this season, as they scored just six points in the first half against Brigham Young and three in the first half against Oklahoma State. When they got off to a good start against Iowa State, however, they controlled the game and forced the Cyclones to panic, leading them to dominate the contest and emerge with a hard-fought victory.

The Bears’ ideal formula for this game involves getting the offense off to a strong start on the ground through Richard Reese, but that might be a challenge in this game because West Virginia’s biggest strength is its run defense. Given that Texas just shredded West Virginia’s pass defense, Blake Shapen could have a field day if the Bears come out ready to perform. But this is an offense that usually needs to run to set up the pass, so if that’s not working, Baylor might run into the same issues that have caused its struggles.

When West Virginia Has the Ball

West Virginia’s offense is difficult to analyze because there really isn’t a baseline team that the Mountaineers have faced this season. They’ve put up gaudy numbers against the likes of Virginia Tech and Kansas, but Kansas’ defense has been fairly inconsistent, and Virginia Tech really doesn’t do anything well this season. On the other side of the coin, the Texas team that just rolled West Virginia dominated the Mountaineers’ run game and forced JT Daniels to take to the air 48 times, which isn’t really where West Virginia wants this game to go.

However, the Mountaineers might have no choice in this game because Baylor’s run defense is the best they’ve seen all season long. The Mountaineers couldn’t run the ball on Texas, which has a middling run defense, and Baylor hasn’t let anyone run the ball against its front seven. That’s going to put a lot of pressure on Daniels and the West Virginia offensive line, as well as receivers Bryce Ford-Wheaton and Sam James. West Virginia has the ability to put up points via the pass, as the Bears have proven susceptible to a good aerial assault, but the Mountaineers’ lack of a run game might make it too easy for the Bears to pin their ears back and go after Daniels.

More Picks: Get Jay’s LSU at Florida Recommended Bet 10/15/22

Betting Trends

Baylor has never won in West Virginia, so that’s something that’s working against them as they head into this matchup. So has the fact that the home team has won nine of 10 in this matchup and has gone 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series. But that said, West Virginia, has had better teams than what it’s shown the past two seasons, so its history against the Bears might not be as strong of a guide in this situation.

In more recent outings, West Virginia has just one cover in its past six conference games at home, and Baylor tends to focus pretty well after it gets beaten. When the Bears are coming off an ATS loss, they have covered in 20 of the following 26 games, and they’re 13-5 ATS in their past 18 games overall. However, rust is a factor for both of these teams: Baylor is 1-6-1 ATS coming off a bye, and the under is 4-1 in West Virginia’s past five after a bye.

Weather Report

The good news is that the rain in the morning on Thursday should be out of the way by the time the teams take the field for this game. The bad news is that the rain will leave behind chilly weather, as temperatures will dip to a mere 39 degrees for this matchup. Winds will blow at five miles per hour to the south-southwest.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

I’m not completely sold on Baylor, even though this is a reasonably low spread. That said, West Virginia has to call a better game if the Mountaineers are going to stay competitive in this game. The pass defense for Baylor isn’t the greatest around, and the Mountaineers should be able to attack it if they don’t completely abandon the run game and let Baylor focus on going after Daniels.

Personally, I think the best bet here is the Under. If I have to make a spread play, I’ll take West Virginia and the points. Bet your Week 7 NCAA football predictions for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 when you enter bonus code PREDICTEM on the Special Offers page after making your first deposit at the web’s oldest and most trusted bookie —> Everygame Sportsbook!