Baylor Bears (4-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Kansas Jayhawks (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS)
College Football Week 6
Date/Time: Saturday, October 10th, 12:00pm
Where: Memorial Stadium Lawrence, Kansas
TV:Fox
by Bob, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: BAY -44 / KAN +44
Over/Under Total: 77
This Saturday at noon, tune into Fox and check out the nations number three ranked Baylor Bears travel into Lawrence and take on the heavy underdog, Kansas Jayhawks. Baylor comes in tied for the Big 12 lead, while at 0-4, Kansas is 10th. What an upset this could be, right? Yeah, not a chance most would say, but it is still fun to think about. Baylor feels they were snubbed last season along with TCU for a final four berth. Well, based on the current rankings, the Bears of Baylor control their own destiny. Win out, and it would be hard to drop them out of the top four.
The spread in this game is an incredible 44 points, of course with Baylor as the favorite. The total points are set at 77. At this time, 59% of the action is on Baylor to cover the big spread and win this game in blowout fashion. So far this season, Baylor is 2-1 against the spread. They have played four games but their game against Lamar was not on the betting board, so there was no result in that one. These two teams have met every season since the 2010 campaign and since that time, Baylor has covered the spread all but once and that was in 2011. The last two seasons, this game had the same point spread, 34.5, in favor of Baylor and both seasons they covered. The over has also hit in the last two years. 2013 the total was set at 66 and last season, 2014, the line on the total points was 59.5. These large spreads are tough to gauge, but we will take a crack at it.
The Baylor Bears consider themselves a legit contender for a national title. Currently, ranked third in the country, they are 4-0 and their results have been very impressive, at least from an offensive standpoint. Baylor has scored 56, 66, 70, and 63 points. Unreal. They have the nations top scoring offense and they also rank top ten in passing and rushing yards. This team is flat out clicking on offense. Their defense however needs to shapen up some. Yes, when you are averaging 64 points a game, it is easy to overlook the defense, but someone is going to come along that does not let them put up points at will, then the defense will need to shine. Baylor ranks 79th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing nearly 27 points a game. To win and cover this week at Kansas, they will need to hold the Jayhawks under that amount, or at least I would think so.
Kansas is going to need an absolute miracle to pull off an upset this Saturday. Yes, crazier things have happened, but lets focus more on what the Jayhawks need to do to keep the score somewhat close, rather than win the game. Kansas is winless and not only are they defeated at 0-4, they are losing games and even being competitive. Statistically, Kansas is just as bad as their record. They have the 121st ranked defense, the 205th ranked offense. Yes, that is right. They are ranked 205th in scoring at just 22 points per game. Kansas does however have a decent passing game. I am not sure if that is due to them actually being good, or just their run game is so bad they have no other choice. Lets also remember that in a few games this season, Kansas was playing catch up, so the passing stats get a little inflated in those situations too. Here is the deal: Kansas has to just play unlike Kansas. This team is bad, real bad. They need to have Baylor make a few mistakes and if this happens, Kansas MUST take advantage of those mistakes. Not to win the game, to just come within the 44 points.
Well, time to make a pick. I will just go ahead and go with the favorite. The Kansas defense is awful, absolutely awful. Baylor will pretty much be able to pick their score for this one. The only way that Kansas covers the 44 would be if their offense could get in the end zone a few times, and I do not even have faith that will happen more than once or so. Baylor wins this game like 63-13 or some blowout score.
Bobs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I will ride the hot hand and pick Baylor to blow out Kansas and cover the 44 points.
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