Barking Dog Alert: Nevada vs. San Diego St Pick

Nevada Wolf Pack (0-6 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS)

College Football Week 8

Date and Time: Saturday, October 22, 2023 at 9PM EDT

Where: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, California

TV: Fox Sports 2

Point Spread: NEV +13.5/SDSU -13.5 (Bovada – MASSIVE wagering menu! Tons of prop bets!)

Money Line: Nevada +400, San Diego St. -575

Over/Under Total: 49

The Nevada Wolf Pack come into Snapdragon Stadium on Saturday for a Saturday night showdown with the San Diego State Aztecs. The Wolf Pack continue to struggle in the wake of Jay Norvell’s departure to Colorado State, dropping their first six games of the season, including a 45-27 loss to UNLV last week. The Aztecs enter this at 3-4, having ended a four-game losing streak on Saturday, coming back with a big fourth quarter to beat Hawaii, 41-34. Who can get the upper hand in San Diego on Saturday?

Nevada: As Bad as It Looks?

An 0-6 record is unsightly. We’re seeing small hints of an offense coming to life, seemingly always undone by the follies on the other side of the ball, where they’re giving up 40 points a game. But there are some things to look at with a discerning eye, namely their 3-3 ATS mark, a sometimes-lively offense, and how even with being on the rocks the last few years as a program, they’ve held their own in games against the Aztecs in ’21 and ’22. So, while we know they’re bad, we don’t want that 0-6 mark to hypnotize us.

We also have to consider that on the other sideline is an Aztecs team that has spent the better part of a month getting their own butts kicked. That fourth quarter against a bad Hawaii team that had them on the ropes last week was their only real positive sequence in weeks. Getting hammered by Pac-12 teams like UCLA and Oregon St. is one thing, but two weeks back, they were smashed by Air Force, 49-10, so it’s not like the winless Wolf Pack are facing an opponent that has seen smooth sailing this season. SDSU has a lot on their plates, as well.

More Likely to Produce?

Recent woes and issues aside, this might not be an altogether bad spot for an Aztecs’ offense that had been showing signs of life to resurface. The Nevada defense has been bad across the board. The flop against Air Force and the early-game issues against an exploitable Hawaii “D” notwithstanding, the Aztecs put up 31 a few weeks ago against Boise and on Saturday, it was QB Jalen Mayden’s play and freshman back Lucky Sutton’s two TDs that allowed the Aztecs to avoid losing their fifth game in a row. While having been mistake-prone this season, Mayden’s dual-threat appeal and weapons like RB Jaylon Armstead, TE Mark Redman, and a group of talented receivers is coming along some.

Having allowed 114 combined points in their last three games, however, we see San Diego State coach Brady Hoke no longer having the “D” he used to have with the Aztecs. It’s hard to like a Nevada offense that puts up 9 against Fresno and manages to not even get in the end zone against the likes of Idaho. But Brendon Lewis and this Nevada offense can be deceptively scrappy. Lewis is gaining more comfort, last week throwing for two TDs, while also rushing for 115 yards and another score. It seems like a week where some production can be forecasted from this group. It’s not a deep cast of real weapons, but with Lewis and a few playmakers in the receiving corps, this isn’t the worst spot against an SDSU defense that has been sporadically stout, flashed playmaking ability here and there, but has otherwise at least been fairly exploitable.

The Drawbacks of San Diego State in This Role

Losing in their only other game as large-sized favorites this season when they beat Idaho State by only 6 probably doesn’t relate much to this game, but it does bring to light the shortcomings the Aztecs have as big favorites. You have an Aztecs “D” that just gave up 34 to Hawaii and 49 to Air Force now laying almost two TDs against a Nevada offense that while capable of bad showings, isn’t all that terrible. And sure, this seems like one of, if not the most advantageous home-spots the Aztecs offense will see in conference this season against this Nevada defense. If Mayden is connecting with his targets and the Aztecs are running downhill all night, a big point-total is certainly on the table. But other than last week’s 41-point output against the Rainbow Warriors, we haven’t really seen this offense drop the hammer, scoring 20 against Ohio and 36 against Idaho State in their two easier spots of the season, a pair of totals that might not get it done this week.

San Diego State can certainly deliver in this spot, even as the large favorite, but it seems they need a lot of stars to align. They need an offense that sometimes lapses into long scoreless spells to produce a nice total this week. They need a defense that has been exploitable in spots to curtail what could be a Nevada offense that is at least slightly coming around to speed. And when taking the Aztecs laying this many points, you need four good quarters and that’s something we haven’t seen from them in 2023.

Take the Points

Taking a winless team doesn’t produce a lot of comfort. And both sides of the ball for the Wolf Pack have the capacity to bottom out without warning. I still see a Nevada team out there trying and playing with an edge despite a hopeless situation from a won-loss standpoint. I think there is enough fire on this Nevada offense that they manage to hang in this game halfway decently and get the cover in San Diego. I’ll take the Wolf Pack and the points.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Nevada Wolf Pack plus 13.5 points.