Ball State vs. Buffalo Week 12: Free CFB Pick and Betting Prediction

Ball State Cardinals (3-6 SU, ATS 5-3)  vs Buffalo Bulls (5-4 SU, ATS 3-4)
Date: 7:00 EST Tuesday, November 12th
Location: UB Stadium, Buffalo, NY
TV: CBSS
Point Spread: BSU +4.5/UB -4.5
Money Line: BSU +158/UB  -192
Over/Under: 53.5

At 7:00 ET, the Buffalo Bulls and Ball State Cardinals will face off at UB Stadium in Buffalo. The Bulls are the -4.5 point favorites in this week 12 college football matchup. The game will be broadcast on CBSS, and the over/under line is currently 53.5 points. Buffalo comes in with a 5-4 record, while Ball State is 3-6 on the season.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Ball State Cardinals and Buffalo Bulls did not meet up last season, but over their last three head-to-head matchups, each team is 1-2. The Buffalo Bulls had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 52 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 3-0.

Ball State Cardinals Recent Form:

Ball State enters Week 12 with a 3-6 record, facing Buffalo on the road. They rank 124th in our CFB power rankings and have just a 1.3% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. The Cardinals are 1-4 on the road and 1-2 at home this season.

Ball State is 5-3 against the spread, with a perfect 3-0 record at home. They’ve been favored in just one game, and their average scoring margin is -14.2 points per game.

The Cardinals’ over/under record stands at 6-1-1, with their games averaging 63.6 points. This week’s line is 53.5 points, slightly below their average over/under line of 53.9 points.

Ball State’s offense has been centered around their passing game, ranking 30th in passing attempts per game. They are 24th in completions, averaging 23 per game, and their quarterback, Kadin Semonza, has thrown for 2,029 yards with a 65.8% completion rate. He has 16 touchdowns but also nine interceptions, and his passer rating is 89.

Overall, Ball State is 67th in scoring, averaging 24.7 points per game, and they are ranked 99th in our offensive power rankings. Their run game has struggled, averaging 107.2 rushing yards per game. Braedon Sloan leads the team with 517 rushing yards and four touchdowns.

Ball State’s defense has struggled this season, allowing an average of 38.9 points per game. In their recent game against Miami (OH), they gave up 27 points, including three passing touchdowns, while allowing 336 total yards.

Opponents have averaged 291.9 passing yards per game against Ball State, completing 64.1% of their passes. On the ground, Ball State’s defense has faced the 22nd fewest rushing attempts nationally, but they’ve allowed 172.3 rushing yards per game.

Away Injury Report

Buffalo Bulls Recent Form:

Buffalo enters Week 12 with a 5-4 record, and they are projected to be bowl-eligible with a 97.9% chance. However, their odds of winning the Mid-American stand at just 3.2%. The Bulls have a 2-1 record at home this season and are ranked 116th in our power rankings.

Buffalo is 1-0 as the favorite this season and has been favored in just one game. Their average scoring margin is -4.8 points, and they have a 3-4 record against the spread.

The over/under line for this week is 53.5 points. Buffalo’s over/under record is 5-2, with their games averaging 53.2 points. The average line for their games has been 46.7 points, and they’ve exceeded the total by an average of 7.8 points.

Buffalo’s offense has been underwhelming this season, ranking 114th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 12. They are 69th in scoring, averaging 24.2 points per game, and their third-down conversion rate is just 30.6%, which ranks 119th nationally. Their passing game has struggled, averaging 174.2 yards per game, and they are 96th in passer rating.

Quarterback C.J. Ogbonna has thrown for 1,527 yards with a passer rating of 87. He has ten touchdowns and two interceptions, completing 56.5% of his passes. Buffalo is 39th in rushing attempts, averaging 155.6 yards per game. Al-Jay Henderson leads the ground attack with 562 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry and scoring four touchdowns. Victor Snow is the top receiver with 424 yards and three touchdowns.

Buffalo’s defense has had a challenging season, allowing 29 points per game, including 30 in their recent matchup against Akron. Despite giving up 452 total yards, they limited Akron to 74 rushing yards on 27 attempts but struggled against the pass, allowing 378 yards and four touchdowns.

On average, Buffalo’s defense has given up 255.4 passing yards per game, ranking 143rd nationally, and 154.3 rushing yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 62.4% of their passes and hold a passer rating of 92.4 against the Bulls.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Across their three previous road games, Ball State has an ATS mark of 1-2. Their straight up record in these matchups was 1-2 while averaging 19 points per game.
• When looking at their past three home matchups, Buffalo has an ATS record of 1-2 while averaging 20 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Ball State Cardinals have a straight up record of 2-8 and an ATS mark of 8-2.
• As the betting favorite, the Buffalo Bulls have an ATS mark of just 4-6 in their last ten games. Buffalo posted a straight up mark of 5-5 in these matchups.

Free Pick

By no means does Buffalo have a dynamic offense this year, but even they should be able to take advantage of a struggling Ball State defense. Getting the Bullks at -4.5 is a good value bet, given they have a favorable offensive matchup and are at home this week. I’m going with Buffalo to win and cover at -4.5.

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