Bahamas Bowl Picks and Predictions: Buffalo vs. Liberty

Buffalo Bulls (8-4 SU, ATS 5-4)  vs Liberty Flames (8-3 SU, ATS 3-4)
Date: 11:00 EST Saturday, January 4th
Location: Thomas Robinson Stadium, Nassau, NP
TV: ESPN2
Point Spread: UB +2.5/Lib -2.5
Money Line: UB +106/Lib  -128
Over/Under: 51.5

At 11:00 ET on Saturday, January 4th, the Buffalo Bulls and Liberty Flames will face off in the Bahamas Bowl, being played at Thomas Robinson Stadium in Nassau. The game is set to be broadcast on ESPN2, with Liberty coming in as the -2.5 point favorite over Buffalo. The money line odds are currently -128 for Liberty and +106 for Buffalo. The over/under line is at 51.5 points. Both teams are 8-3 on the season.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Buffalo Bulls and Liberty Flames did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Buffalo Bulls have a record of 2-1. However, against the spread, the Liberty Flames went 2-1. The over/under record in these matchups was 2-1 on an average of 73 points per game.

Buffalo Bulls Recent Form:

Buffalo heads into their Week 1 matchup against Liberty with an 8-4 record. They’ve gone 3-1 at home and 2-3 on the road this season. The Bulls have been favored in only two games, winning both, and they’ve posted a +1.1 average scoring margin.

Against the spread, Buffalo is 5-4, covering in three of four home games. They are 2-0 with ATS as the favorite and have a 2-3 record with ATS as the underdog.

The over/under line for this week is 51.5 points. Buffalo’s games have averaged 57.1 points, and their over/under record stands at 6-3. On average, their games have exceeded the line by 9.9 points, with eight games featuring higher totals than this week’s line.

Buffalo’s offense has leaned on their running game, averaging 166.6 rushing yards per game on 38.9 attempts. Al-Jay Henderson has 959 rushing yards, eight touchdowns, and averages 5 yards per carry. Quarterback C.J. Ogbonna has thrown for 2,244 yards with 19 touchdowns and five interceptions, posting a passer rating of 92.

Buffalo ranks 45th in scoring, with 29.1 points per game, but they are 106th in our offensive power rankings. Their third-down conversion rate is low at 34.1%, and they are 106th in passing yards per game. Victor Snow leads the receivers with 610 yards and six touchdowns.

Buffalo’s defense had a strong showing in their recent game, allowing just 7 points and 209 total yards against Kent State. They limited the Golden Flashes to 10 first downs and 107 rushing yards on 35 attempts while giving up 102 passing yards and grabbing an interception.

On the season, Buffalo is allowing 28 points per game. Opponents are averaging 146.6 rushing yards per game and 258.6 passing yards, completing 62.9% of their throws with a passer rating of 92.7.

Away Injury Report

Liberty Flames Recent Form:

Liberty enters Week 12 with an 8-3 record, going 3-1 at home and 2-1 on the road. They’ve been favored in seven of their 11 games this season, holding a 5-2 record as the favorite.

The Flames have an average scoring margin of +7.5 points per game. Against the spread, they are 3-4 this season, with a 2-2 record at home and 1-2 on the road.

This week’s over/under line is set at 51.5 points. Liberty’s games have averaged 54 points, and their average over/under line has been 55.2 points, with a 2-4-1 record against the total.

Liberty’s offense is built around their rushing game, ranking 7th nationally with 238.8 yards per game. They are 14th in rushing attempts, averaging 41.5 per game. Quinton Cooley leads the team with 1,254 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns, and 6 yards per carry. Liberty is 21st in third-down conversions, converting 45.5% of their attempts, and they are 48th in scoring, with 28.2 points per game.

Quarterback Kaidon Salter has thrown for 1,886 yards, with 15 touchdowns and six interceptions, and Liberty ranks 121st in passing yards per game. Salter’s passer rating is 88, matching the team’s overall passer rating. Treon Sibley leads the receivers with 499 yards and two touchdowns.

Liberty’s defense has been solid this season, ranking 24th nationally by allowing just 21.3 points per game. In their recent matchup against Sam Houston, they gave up 20 points, including two passing touchdowns, while also forcing an interception.

Against Sam Houston, Liberty allowed 337 total yards, with 135 rushing yards on 42 attempts and 202 passing yards. So far this season, they’ve given up an average of 152.9 rushing yards per game and 201.7 passing yards.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• In their last three road games, Buffalo has averaged 31 points per game while allowing 32. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
• Through their last ten home games, Liberty has an ATS record of just 4-6. However, their overall record was 7-3 while averaging 30 points per game.
• Buffalo has done well both straight up and vs. the spread as the underdog, going 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five games.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Liberty Flames have a straight up record of 7-3 and an ATS mark of 3-7.

Free Pick

Digging into this one, I see Liberty having a good opportunity to move the ball and put up some points vs Buffalo’s defense. This is a tight point spread, sitting at -2.5 in favor of the flames. However, I see them being closer to a touchdown favorite. Before this line moves too much, I’m taking Liberty to win and cover.

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