AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Over/Under Pick

Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-4 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS)
AutoZone Liberty Bowl Betting Preview
Date/Time: Friday, December 27th, 2024, 7:00PM (EST)
Where: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium Memphis, TN.
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: TTU +1.5/ARK -1.5
Moneyline: TTU +105/ARK -115
Total: 53.5

For the 3rd straight season, Head Coach Joey McGuire has led the Texas Tech Red Raiders to another respectable campaign which was capped off by a 52-15 blowout victory over West Virginia in the season finale. At 8-4 SU, the Red Raiders will make their 4th straight bowl season appearance. In both prior postseason appearances under Head Coach Joey McGuire, the Red Raiders have been victorious with wins in the Texas and Independence Bowls. This year, the Red Raiders will meet the Arkansas Razorbacks at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium for a showdown in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl.

At 6-6 SU, the Razorbacks were able to sneak into the bowl season despite losing 4 of their last six games. To be fair, Arkansas dealt with a pretty tough schedule down the stretch, which included games against ranked opponents in 6 of their final eight games of the regular season. As everyone is aware, that is typical life in the SEC, and Arkansas will try to prove that they are much better than their 6-6 record suggests when they meet the Red Raiders in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl. Currently, Arkansas is listed as the slight betting favorite and they have been victorious in each of their prior two bowl season appearances under Head Coach Sam Pittman!

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Analysis

The biggest item to note before we break down this Texas Tech and Arkansas match-up is the fact the Red Raiders will be without starting QB Behren Morton, who had shoulder surgery following the regular season finale. Morton was a huge part of the Red Raiders passing attack and had thrown for 3,300 yards with 27 touchdowns and just eight picks on the season. Without Morton, the Red Raiders will turn to freshman QB Will Hammond, who has shown a lot of skills in limited action this year but obviously lacks a ton of experience. Needless to say, it will be interesting to see if the Red Raiders’ high-power offense can be as efficient with Hammond behind center.

The good news for Red Raiders fans is that Hammond is surrounded by a lot of talent in the likes of RB Tahj Brooks and WR Josh Kelly. Personally, I think Hammond will perform better than expected but the Texas Tech defense still worries me in this match-up. The Red Raiders’ defense has been very poor this season, especially against the pass where they have given up over 300 yards per game. Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green is not the best pure passer to exploit the Red Raiders’ defense, but he is capable. The Razorbacks are typically heavily focused on the rushing attack with Green, RB Ja’Quinden Jackson, and others who have combined for 32 touchdowns on the ground this season. If Arkansas is able to control the ground game, it could be very difficult for Texas Tech to pull out the victory.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Trends

• Texas Tech is 4-1 ATS in the last five games.
• Texas Tech has hit the “over” in five of the last six games.
• Texas Tech is 10-2 SU in the last 12 games in the month of December.
• Texas Tech is 6-2 SU in their last eight bowl games.
• Arkansas is 2-4 ATS in the last six games.
• Arkansas has hit the “under” in six of the last nine games.
• Arkansas is 3-9 SU in the last 12 games in the month of December.
• Arkansas is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 games against Big 12 opponents.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Prediction

I think both offenses are going to be successful in this match-up, especially if Hammond plays the way I expect. I’m not confident enough in the Texas Tech defense nor the Arkansas offense to pick a side in this match-up. However, I do believe there is enough confidence to take the “over” based on the current total and the advantageous match-up both offenses should have with each possession.

Jay’s Pick: Take the over 53.5

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