Auburn Tigers vs. LSU Tigers Betting Pick

Auburn Tigers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. No. 22 LSU Tigers (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS)

College Football Week 7

Date/Time: Saturday, October 14th, 2023. 7:00 PM (EST)

Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA

TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: AUB +11 / LSU -11 (Make sure you’re placing your wagers with the best betting sites!)

Moneyline: AUB +350 / LSU -430

Total: 63.5

Last week, the LSU Tigers bounced back from their close loss to Ole Miss with a victory over No. 21 Missouri in yet another high-scoring affair. Despite trailing Missouri 35-27 at the start of the 4th quarter, the Tigers rallied behind their potent offense to score 22 points in the final period to secure a 49-35 victory in Columbia. From a betting standpoint, it was the 2nd straight week the Tigers were involved in an extremely high-scoring shootout, and it was also the 2nd straight week that I successfully picked LSU to hit the “over.”

LSU’s recent trend of producing high-scoring football games has translated into another interesting betting total that has been placed at a lofty 63.5 points for this Saturday’s home stand against the visiting Auburn Tigers (3-2 SU). Auburn’s rugged offense has not exactly produced the firepower to warrant 60 plus point betting totals. In fact, this Saturday’s road trip to Baton Rouge will mark just the 2nd time since 2021 that Auburn had a betting total that exceeded 60 points. Therefore, it may be time to discuss if this betting total has been overinflated due to recent results!

Auburn Tigers vs. LSU Tigers Betting Analysis

One of the main reasons that I have sided with the “over” in the LSU games in recent weeks is because the Tigers are simply ‘bad’ on the defensive side of the football and really good on the offensive side of the football. Additionally, in both previous match-ups, I felt like the opposing offenses had the personnel and schematic match-up advantages to exploit LSU’s defense. For this week’s match-up, I’m not quite sure if Auburn has the same weapons to exploit this LSU defense.

The visiting Tigers are still addicted to a somewhat predictable ground attack that features a lot of option-reads and misdirection schemes behind RB Jarquez Hunter and QB Payton Thorne. In passing situations, Thorne has produced very modest results, which includes 4 picks and just 3 touchdowns through the air. I mention this because LSU’s defense has been better against the run as opposed to the pass, which is favorable for this match-up. Without a true every-down passing threat combined with the night atmosphere in Baton Rouge, I’m expecting this LSU defense to produce much better results, which is indicative of the 11-point betting line.

For LSU, I still believe the Tigers have one of the more dangerous offenses in the country, which was on full display in the 4th quarter last week with QB Jayden Daniels and WR Malik Nabers producing numerous big plays. With RB Logan Diggs picking up steam in recent weeks, I would label this LSU offense as borderline elite in terms of talent and potential. Purely based on the match-up, I don’t see Auburn’s defense yielding the speed or talent to present any significant restraints to LSU’s execution.

Auburn Tigers vs. LSU Tigers Betting Trends

• Auburn has hit the “over” in 8 of the last 12 games.
• Auburn is 1-7 SU in the last 8 games on the road.
• Auburn is 5-11 SU in the last 16 games against LSU.
• Auburn is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games against LSU.
• LSU has hit the “over” in each of the last 10 games.
• LSU is 4-1 SU in the last 5 games.
• LSU is 10-1 SU in the last 11 games at home against Auburn.
• LSU has hit the “under” in each of the last 5 games against Auburn.

Auburn Tigers vs. LSU Tigers Betting Prediction

Unless Auburn has a field day running the football, I expect this match-up to favor the Tigers from Baton Rouge. I’m expecting an improved LSU defensive performance driven by match-up narratives. If that happens, I believe LSU’s offense will help us get the cover, perhaps with ease. Don’t be surprised if the scoring is less than the posted total this week either!

Jay’s Pick: Take LSU -11