Auburn Tigers (7-3, 5-4 ATS) at Georgia Bulldogs (5-4, 2-6 ATS)
Sanford Stadium Athens, G.A. Saturday November 14th, 7:00PM Eastern
By Jay Horne of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Auburn +4/Georgia -4
Over/Under: 56.5
Outside of the top 3 teams in the SEC who all rank in the top 10, the rest of the conference has struggled. The Georgia Bulldogs actually still hold down the number 2 spot in the SEC East despite an extremely disappointing 5-4 record on the season just to emphasize how there is a lack of powerhouses this year in the conference that normally rules the top 25. The Bulldogs will get the chance to avoid any losing record if they can lock up a win when they host the Auburn Tigers in a Saturday night contest between the hedges. The Tigers on the other hand started off extremely impressive winning their first 5 games of the season.
However, Auburn hit a rocky road through the middle of the year losing 3 straight in conference action. The Tigers bounced back a few weeks ago knocking off Mississippi Rebels 33-20 and they have won two straight entering the contest. However, the Tigers will face a tough challenge taking down Georgia on the road as the Bulldogs normally play well at home. The Bulldogs have yet to score a true quality win this season and they will try to avoid falling back to the .500 mark on the year. Georgia took down Tennessee Tech last week 38-0 and perhaps that will build up some confidence for this Saturday night’s home stand against the Tigers.
Oddsmakers opened the betting line favoring the Bulldogs by 3.5 points, but that has climbed to 4 points currently. Some other lines already have the Bulldogs at 4.5 and it could very well keep moving in favor of the home team. However the line movement has not persuaded the betting public as 75% of early betting action is siding with the Tigers who stand at 6-3 on the season.
The Bulldogs offense has not been nearly as flashy as they were last year, but WR A.J. Green remains the best wide receiver in the league. Green has 44 catches for 732 yards with 6 touchdowns on the season. The Tigers secondary has not exactly performed outstanding against the pass this season and that should give Green the chance to make some more plays in front of the home crowd. Bulldogs QB Joe Cox will have to limit the mistakes. Cox has thrown 12 picks on the season with 17 touchdowns, but the turnovers have proven to be costly. Georgia has not really been able to move the ball on the ground so a lot will ride on Cox to led the offense down the field and get the ball in the hands of Green. If that can happening regularly and the mistakes can be avoided, then the Bulldogs should be able to post some touchdowns against a Tigers defense that is allowing an SEC worse 27 points per game.
The Tigers main problems have been on defense where they have failed to keep a team under 20 points or more since the opener against Louisiana Tech. Luckily for Auburn the offense has produced for the majority of the season capturing some solid victories. QB Chris Todd has been very impressive this season throwing 17 touchdowns with only 3 picks on the season. Todd has thrown for 1,958 yards and recorded 4 touchdowns in last week’s victory over Furman. The Tigers offense has also benefited from running back Ben Tate having an excellent season. Tate is just 6 yards behind Alabama’s front runner for the Heisman Trophy in Mark Ingram at 1,142 yards on the year. Tate has also recorded 8 touchdowns and he has a hard nose running style that will cause trouble for the Georgia defensive line.
Betting Trends – Auburn has reached the under total in the last 4 out of 5 games while sporting an embarrassing 1-7 mark ATS in their last 8 games on the road. Georgia has won the last 4 out of 6 games over the Tigers in the series, but is just 2-4 ATS in those 6 games. The Bulldogs have also won the last 4 out of 5 games at home.
Jay’s Pick – Georgia -4.