Tigers vs. Wildcats: Can Either Offense Find the End Zone? Week 9 CFB Predictions

Auburn Tigers (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 9
Date/Time: Saturday, October 26th, 2024, 7:45PM (EST)
Where: Kroger Field Lexington, KY.
TV: SEC Network

Betting Odds

Point Spread: AUB +3/UK -3
Moneyline: AUB +115/UK -135
Total: 42.5

As an old-school SEC guy, it’s kind of weird that the Auburn Tigers have become one of the worst teams in the conference. However, the Tigers dropped their 4th straight game against an SEC opponent in last week’s 21-17 defeat to Missouri. At 2-5 SU, Auburn’s only two victories this season were against the likes of Alabama A&M (FCS) and New Mexico. Needless to say, there are a lot of issues on the plains in 2024 and not exactly a lot of answers in sight. More importantly, the Tigers are in desperate need of a victory to avoid the premature firing of Head Coach Hugh Freeze, which is becoming a weekly topic.

On Saturday, the Tigers will take a road trip to Lexington for a meeting with the Kentucky Wildcats at Kroger Field. Last week, the Wildcats dropped their 2nd straight game since their big upset against Ole No. 6 Miss earlier this month. Since that victory, the Wildcats have dropped losses to Vanderbilt (20-13) and to Florida (48-20). In the loss to Florida last week, Kentucky uncharacteristically failed to run the football effectively, which led to more issues as QB Brock Vandagriff tossed three interceptions. Needless to say, Head Coach Mark Stoops pointed out that Kentucky must run the ball better this week and finish drives with points on the scoreboard!

Auburn Tigers vs. Kentucky Wildcats Betting Analysis

If you are looking for games this week with a lot of scoring opportunities, you may not want to watch this one. If you are a fan of old-school style football, where points are hard to come by, this game may be perfect for you. The reason the betting total for this game is listed at just 42 points is that neither the Auburn nor Kentucky offense is playing well. More importantly, it is reflective of the stylistic match-up in this game, where both offenses want to control the ground game but are going up against much better defenses. In fact, both Auburn and Kentucky are highly-ranked rush defenses that are giving up less than 115 yards per game. As a result, the defenses will hold the upper hand on both sides of the football in this particular match-up.

To complicate matters, I don’t expect either coach to steer away from the game plan of trying to run the football this week. Auburn QB Payton Thorne has had issues with turnovers, and the Tigers are more comfortable putting the workload on RB Jarquez Hunter. The problem for Auburn is that the run game plays into the strength of the Kentucky defense, which is very physical and among the top 20 defenses in the country. Meanwhile, Kentucky was forced into passing situations last week and it led to a plethora of interceptions by Vandagriff. As a result, I expect Kentucky will try to keep the football on the ground and rely on their defense to help control the field position battle to potentially lead to scoring opportunities.

Auburn Tigers vs. Kentucky Wildcats Betting Trends

• Auburn is 2-4 ATS in the last six games.
• Auburn has hit the “under” in 4 of the last six games.
• Auburn is 3-10 SU in the last 13 games on the road.
• Auburn is 5-1 SU in the last six games against Kentucky.
• Kentucky is 6-3 ATS in the last nine games.
• Kentucky is 5-10 SU in the last 15 games.
• Kentucky has hit the “under” in 5 of the last seven games.
• Kentucky is 1-6 SU in the last seven games against SEC opponents.

Auburn Tigers vs. Kentucky Wildcats Betting Prediction

I know the total for this game is extremely low at just 42 points. However, I am not sure that it is going to be low enough based on the match-up breakdown described above. Kentucky appears to be the better team, but they are far from being reliable offensively. As a result, I think this game is going to produce minimal scoring and an old-school-style box score.

Jay’s Pick: Take the under 42!

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