SEC Showdown: Auburn Hosts Arkansas – Betting Predictions & Picks

Arkansas Razorbacks (2-1 SU, ATS 0-1) vs Auburn Tigers (2-1 SU, ATS 1-1)

Date: 3:30 EST Saturday, September 21st

Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Ark +3/Aub -3

Money Line: U OF A +128/AU -154

Over/Under: 58

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ESPN will be covering this week four matchup between the Auburn Tigers and Arkansas Razorbacks, set to kick off at 3:30 ET from Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn. The over/under line is currently set at 58 points, with the Tigers as the -3-point favorites at home. Both teams enter the game with a 2-1 record for the season.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Arkansas Razorbacks and Auburn Tigers did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Arkansas Razorbacks have a record of 2-1. The Arkansas Razorbacks also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 90 points per game leading to an over/under record of 2-1.

Arkansas Razorbacks Recent Form:

Arkansas is now 2-1 for the season after a 37-27 win over UAB. The Razorbacks were -22.5 point favorites but failed to cover the spread. The over/under line was set at 61 points, and the teams combined for 64 points, hitting the over.

Arkansas led 10-3 after the first quarter, but UAB outscored them 17-7 in the second quarter, tying the game at 20-20 by halftime. The Razorbacks regained the lead in the third quarter, outscoring UAB 7-0, and added 10 points in the fourth quarter to seal the win.

Arkansas’ offense was powered by their ground game in their 37-27 win over UAB, as they rushed for 268 yards and four touchdowns. The Razorbacks picked up 29 first downs and finished with 429 total yards. The passing game, however, was less effective, with Taylen Green completing just 42.3% of his passes for 161 yards. Green threw one interception and ended the game with a passer rating of 47.12.

Ja’Quinden Jackson was the standout in the rushing attack, averaging 9.8 yards per carry and totaling 147 yards on the ground, including one touchdown. Andrew Armstrong was the leading receiver, with eight receptions for 137 yards.

Arkansas’ defense will need to tighten up after allowing 354 total yards and 27 points to UAB. The Razorbacks gave up 235 passing yards and three touchdowns through the air, while also allowing 119 rushing yards. Despite these numbers, Arkansas did manage to come up with one interception.

Away Injury Report

Auburn Tigers Recent Form:

Auburn improved to 2-1 after handling New Mexico at home. The Tigers, favored by -24, not only won but also covered the spread, finishing with a 45-19 victory. The combined score of 64 points surpassed the over/under line of 58 points.

Auburn led 14-10 after the first quarter, and the game was tied at 17-17 in the second quarter. The Tigers took control in the third quarter, outscoring New Mexico 14-0, and added 14 more points in the fourth quarter while allowing just 6 points to New Mexico.

Auburn’s offense was dominant in their 45-19 win, racking up 505 total yards and 27 first downs. The ground game was particularly effective, with the Tigers rushing for 270 yards and two touchdowns. Jarquez Hunter led the way with 152 yards on 20 carries, averaging 7.6 yards per attempt and finding the end zone once.

Quarterback Hank Brown completed 68% of his passes for 235 yards and four touchdowns, resulting in a passer rating of 137.5. KeAndre Lambert-Smith was his top target, hauling in two receptions for 72 yards.

Auburn’s defense will be looking to improve after giving up 448 total yards to New Mexico in their last game. The Tigers allowed 291 passing yards on 22 completions and 44 attempts, but they did come up with two interceptions. On the ground, Auburn gave up 157 yards and one rushing touchdown.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past ten road matchups, Arkansas has an ATS record of 7-3 while averaging 30 per game. The team went 3-7 overall in these games.
• Across their ten previous home games, Auburn has an ATS mark of 4-5-1. Their straight up record in these matchups was 3-7 while averaging 23 points per game.
• Through their last five games as the betting underdog, the Arkansas Razorbacks have a strong record vs the spread going 4-1. Their straight up mark in these contests is 1-4.
• As the betting favorite, the Auburn Tigers have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight up record was 2-1.

Free Pick

Going into this one, I think the oddsmakers are overvaluing home-field advantage for Auburn. At +3, I really like Arkansas in this spot and wouldn’t be surprised if they went into Jordan-Hare Stadium and knocked off Auburn. My pick for this Saturday afternoon matchup is to take Arkansas at +3.

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