Armed Forces Bowl Prediction: James Madison vs. Air Force Best Bet

James Madison Dukes (11-1 SU, ATS 8-2) vs Air Force Falcons (8-4 SU, ATS 4-5-1)

Date: 3:30 EST Saturday, December 23rd

Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX

TV: ABC

Point Spread: JMU -3/AF +3

Money Line: J. Madison -155/Air Force +127

Over/Under: 41

The James Madison Dukes and Air Force Falcons matchup in a non-conference showdown at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, TX. The over/under for this matchup is currently 41, while James Madison is favored by -3.

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Head-to-Head Matchup:

These teams did not face off last season, but looking back on their last three head-to-head games, Air Force has gone 2-1. The over/under record in these games was 2-1 with the teams averaging 60 points per game combined. Air Force went 2-1 vs. the spread.

James Madison Dukes Recent Form:

Going into their game vs. Air Force, the James Madison Dukes are coming off a 56-14 win over the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and have an above .500 record of 11-1.

Going into the game, James Madison was favored by 4.5 and went on to cover the spread. The team’s combined 70 points surpassed the over/under line of 51.

In the game against Coastal Carolina, Jordan McCloud managed a passer rating of 130.24 while passing for 324 yards. He attempted 35 passes and had a completion rate of 74.3%.

Ty Son Lawton carried the rushing load for James Madison against Coastal Carolina, accumulating 73 yards on 14 attempts and finding the endzone one time. On his six receptions, Elijah Sarratt finished with three touchdowns and 107 yards.

On defense, James Madison finished their game against Coastal Carolina by giving up a total of 328 yards. Coastal Carolina threw the ball 29 times for 254 vs. James Madison. While on the ground, the Dukes gave up 74 rushing yards. So far this season, the Dukes’ defense has given up 63.2 rushing yards per game against the run (212th). Opponents are averaging 267.1 passing yards and opposing quarterbacks have a passer rating of 83.8 against James Madison. In terms of points allowed, they are 94th in the NCAA.

Away Injury Report

Air Force Falcons Recent Form:

Air Force’s record took a hit as it dropped to 8-4 following their recent game against Boise State. The Falcons ended up losing the matchup with a score of 27-19.

Air Force and Boise State combined for 46 points in the game, which was enough to surpass the over/under line of 45 points. In addition to losing straight-up, Air Force did not cover the spread as 6.5-point underdogs.

Despite not throwing a touchdown pass in the team’s loss versus Boise State, quarterback John Busha did manage to rush for one touchdown. His overall statistics included a completion rate of 47.1% and a total of 131 passing yards.

Dylan Carson carried the ball 12 times against Boise State, leading the team with 132 yards and one touchdown. Air Force’s most productive receiver in the game was Brandon Engel, who finished with 57 on four receptions.

Air Force’s defense gave up 545 yards of offense vs. Boise State. In the passing game, they allowed 226 yards while on the ground, they gave up 319 yards. This season, the Falcons’ defense has allowed 98.2 rushing yards per contest, placing them 198th. Opponents are averaging 181 passing yards, and opposing quarterbacks hold a passer rating of 84.4 when facing Air Force. They currently hold the 98th spot in NCAA points allowed.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• When playing on the road, James Madison has an ATS mark of 5-0 vs. the spread.
• Air Force is 2-2-1 Against the spread in their last five games at home.
• Air Force’s ATS record in their three most recent games as an underdog is 2-1.
• Over their last three games as the betting favorite, James Madison has an ATS record of 2-1.

Free Pick

There is no secret that Air Force is going to look to run the ball, running the ball on 85% of their possessions this season. However, they will be up against a James Madison defensive unit that gave up just 2.1 yards per rush. I’m going big on James Madison to win and cover at -3.