Arizona Wildcats vs. USC Trojans: Week 6 College Football Betting Preview

Arizona Wildcats (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) vs. USC Trojans (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS)
College Football Week 6
Date and Time: Saturday, October 7, 2023, at 10:30PM EDT
Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: ARIZ +21.5/USC -21.5 (Bovada)

Money Line: ARIZ +850, USC -1800
Over/Under Total: 72

The Arizona Wildcats come to the LA Coliseum on Saturday for a Pac-12 battle against the USC Trojans. Arizona enters this one at 3-2, coming off a close 31-24 loss to highly-ranked Washington last week. The Trojans won their fifth in a row to begin the season, holding off the Buffaloes in a 48-41 win on Saturday. Who can get us the cover in Los Angeles this weekend?

Is Recent History Revealing?

It’s somewhat curious that USC has beaten Arizona by only a combined 19 points in the last three seasons. We’re talking about some pretty good USC teams and utterly down Arizona teams in that stretch. Even last season, the Trojans only won 45-37. In the last several seasons, we’ve seen the USC offense do its part, with the defense not really doing a good job of holding down the Arizona offense. Once is maybe an aberration, but three in a row makes you wonder if there’s something within the matchups that just bodes well for the Wildcats for some reason.

Hard to Cover Giant Spread with Bad “D”

With USC’s 2-3 mark ATS, we’re already seeing the Trojans’ offense far outperform the other side of the ball, giving up 28 to both San Jose State and Arizona State, before giving up 41 to Colorado last week after keeping them scoreless for the first quarter and change. And with four second-half touchdowns by the Buffaloes, the Trojans ended up in a little sweat after being up by 27 early in the third quarter. It’s not just their national title hopes that are threatened by this defense, as conference teams can also exploit this “D” and give this Trojans team a real struggle.

After all, this isn’t the same hapless Arizona team to which we’ve become accustomed. Under third-year head coach Jedd Fisch, we’ve seen an about-face from a program that had completely bottomed out, now hanging in there and being competitive, even in higher-level conference matchups. They just lost to Washington by a TD last week without their starting QB Jayden De Laura (questionable). This is a team that lost 20 games in a row from 2019-21, and they’ve latched onto something good finally. It’s not easy, even for a powerhouse like USC, to deal with a team that worked so hard to get up to a certain level and won’t easily be separated from that newfound inertia.

Could We See a Better USC This Week?

The shortcomings of the Trojans are no secret, and you’d expect Lincoln Riley and his staff to start ironing out different things. The defense as a whole might not be easy to upgrade, but there are some things they can do. We’ve seen a lot of fast starts, with the Trojans fading in the second half. Maybe it’s the lack of urgency that can accompany taking a big lead, but we’ve seen some troubling events before USC is even really being put in tough spots.

Certainly, the USC offense evokes some awe, with defending Heisman winner Caleb Williams leading the way with a stocked cast of backs and receivers. It’s not hard to envision them at home working harder to get on the right track, tighten that defense up, and put forth more of a complete four-quarters of football. Or maybe they’re using this time as they open up their conference play with some easier games to work on different things. I don’t think one necessarily needs to be alarmed at some of the unevenness we’ve seen from Southern Cal early in the season. They know they’ve been afforded the opportunity to ease into the season and slowly bring things to a peak at just the right time. But with Notre Dame next week, followed by a handful of high-end conference opponents, this is where USC would like to start snapping into top form.

Ignoring Warning Signs?

Maybe USC is just overrated and the same team, more or less, that hit a wall last season when facing tougher conference opponents. And not that Arizona is that, but to see USC getting pressed by both Arizona State and Colorado isn’t a great look. Against a really dilapidated and injury-riddled ASU team two weeks ago, USC was only up 35-28 midway through the fourth quarter. And if not for the early-game points bonanza against Colorado, that one could have gotten away from them also.

Take the Points

Again, the site of this game and the notion that USC will work to attain a higher gear for their upcoming series of tough games is a concern for Arizona backers this week. And maybe we’d be getting a bigger number if last week didn’t bring more into plain view the issues on the Trojans’ defense. I just sense that Arizona will be able to put up points in this spot once again, where it’s going to take something really special from the USC offense to cover this big number. It will be worth checking on starting Arizona QB De Laura leading up to game-time, as his absence would put at least a small dent in Arizona’s chances. At any rate, I’ll take the Wildcats in this one.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Arizona Wildcats plus 21.5 points.