Arizona vs UCLA Game Analysis & Top Bet

Arizona Wildcats (3-6 SU, ATS 5-4) vs UCLA Bruins (8-1 SU, ATS 6-2)

Date: Saturday, November 12th

Location: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA

TV: Fox

Point Spread: Wildcats +19.5/Bruins -19.5 (Make AZ a +39.5 underdog or UCLA a +0.5 dog by inserting either into a massive 20 point college football teaser found at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)

Money Line: Wildcats +700/Bruins -1228

Over/Under: 77.5

RECENT FORM

The Wildcats have an overall record of 3-6 coming into this week’s game. They are currently 1-5 in Pac-12 action. This season, the Wildcats have been favored in 1 game while posting an ATS mark of 5-4. Their average over-under betting line is 60.61 leading to an over-under record of 6-3.

In their last game, Arizona entered as the 18.0-point underdogs vs. Utah. The Wildcats ended up losing the game by a score of 45-20. In the game, Arizona finished with one touchdown through the air, while throwing for 231 yards. On the ground, the team ended with 1 rushing touchdown while averaging 6.2 yards per carry for a total of 156 yards.

Heading into the matchup, Jayden De Laura has an overall passer rating of 100.37 on a total of 2813 yards. Thus far, he has thrown for 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Receiver Jacob Cowing heads into the game, as the team’s leader in receiving yards, with a total of 846. The Wildcats have turned to running back Michael Wiley a total of 73 times for a total of 410 rushing yards.

This season, the Bruins hope to continue playing well against Pac-12 teams, as they are 5-1.
Their overall record is 8-1. This season, the Bruins have been favored in 5 games while posting an ATS mark of 6-2. Their average over under betting line is 55.94 leading to an over-under record of 7-1.

In their previous game, the Bruins picked up a 50-36 home win over Arizona State. This was an impressive victory as they were also the 1.0-point underdogs. In the game, UCLA finished with two touchdowns through the air while throwing for 169 yards. The team ended the game with five rushing touchdowns, along with a total of 402 yards on the ground.

The team’s leading quarterback is Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who comes into the game with a passer rating of 115.96 on a completion percentage of 71.7%. So far, the team’s most productive wide receiver is Jake Bobo, who has caught 38 passes for a total of 590 yards. In the run game, Zach Charbonnet has accumulated 964 on 128 attempts to lead the team.

BETTING TRENDS

The Wildcats come into this week’s game having covered just 30.0% of their last 10 games. Their overall record in these games is just 3-7. On offense, the team averaged 29.3 points per game while allowing 38.2. Their over-under mark (last 10) is 7-3.

Through their last 5 road games, Arizona has an ATS record of just 2-3. However, their overall record was 1-4 while averaging 28.6 points per game.

Over the Bruin’s last 10 games, they have a strong record of 9-1, while also going 7-3 against
the spread. The team’s average scoring differential was 16.5, as they averaged 40.9 points per
game. Defensively, they allowed an average of 24.4. Their last 10 over-under record is 7-3.

When looking at their past five home matchups, UCLA has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 39.4 per game. The team went 5-0 overall in these games.

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KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Wildcats will look to improve their offensive output, as they are ranked just 52nd in the NCAA in points scored and are facing off against a UCLA defense that is allowing an average of 25.56 points per game.

So far, the Arizona offense is averaging just 137.78 yards per game on the ground. This production has come on an average of 29.56 rush attempts per game (123rd). This week, the Wildcats will be facing a UCLA defense that is ranked 46th in rush yards allowed per game. On the season, they are averaging 135.25 yards per game when facing top 25 rush defenses.

So far, the Bruins are averaging 40.78 points per game on offense, which is good for 8th most in college football. This week, they have an ideal matchup against an Arizona defense that is giving up 38.22 points per game.

One aspect of the game that could benefit a UCLA offense that struggles to generate big plays in the passing attack is that they are facing off an Arizona defense that has yet to generate a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. So far, the Wildcats are just 163rd in sacks per game.

On the ground, the UCLA offense is averaging 242.33 yards per game, good for 7th in the country. This has come while ranking 43rd in attempts at 38.67 per game. This week, the Bruins will be facing an Arizona defense that is ranked 167th in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they are averaging 277.83 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

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