Arizona vs. UCF Prediction: Can the Wildcats Pull Off an Upset?

Arizona Wildcats (3-5 SU, 1-7 ATS) vs. UCF Knights (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 10

Date/Time: Saturday, November 2nd, 2024, 3:30PM (EST)

Where: FBC Mortgage Stadium Orlando, FL

TV: FS1

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Ari +6.5/UCF -6.5

Moneyline: AZ +180/Central Fla -215

Total: 54.5

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One of the least polarizing match-ups in the Big 12 this weekend will feature the UCF Knights, who will host the Arizona Wildcats at FBC Mortgage Stadium. Both the Wildcats and Knights have struggled tremendously in recent weeks and throughout the season. Arizona is currently in the midst of a 4-game losing streak while UCF has dropped five straight games. While Arizona has suffered several sizable defeats in recent weeks, UCF has at least been competitive in the majority of their contests, and odds-makers have the Knights listed as 6.5-point betting favorites as they seek their first home win of the season against a Big 12 opponent.

The visiting Wildcats have not only dropped four straight games, but they are tied for the worst record in college football against the spread at 1-7 (ATS). In many ways, Arizona’s results are somewhat hard to comprehend because they have been competitive on both sides of the football, at least on paper. However, turnovers have been one of the major issues for the Wildcats and a big reason they are posting the results we have seen thus far in 2024. In fact, Arizona ranks 121st in college football in turnovers lost (16) and outside the top 100 in turnover margin. Needless to say, Arizona has turned into a dumpster fire in Head Coach Brent Brennan’s first season, and the Wildcats are in desperate need to turn things around!

Arizona Wildcats vs. UCF Knights Betting Analysis

In last week’s 31-26 loss to West Virginia, I thought the Arizona offense showed improved execution and, perhaps most importantly, showed an unwavering focus to pepper WR Tetairoa McMillan with targets. McMillan has proven to be a nightmare match-up for opposing corners and racked up ten catches for a season-high 202 yards and a touchdown against the Mountaineers. I point out that stat line purposely because the UCF defense has been horrible against the pass this season, allowing 247 yards per game through the air, which ranks 107th in the FBS. Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita has struggled with turnovers (10) this season, but he is still a capable passer who should have plenty of vertical opportunities down the field. Obviously, Fifita not only has to hit those opportunities but also has to avoid turning the ball over. If those things happen, Arizona will have a great chance to end their losing skid.

On the other side of the field, UCF’s path to victory involves keeping the Wildcats defense on their heels. RB RJ Harvey has been a beast in the run game and often opens things up for this entire UCF offense. On the season, Harvey has already eclipsed the 1,000-yard plateau and should draw another solid match-up against a less-than-stellar Arizona run defense. The problem that UCF has run into is when the running game does not thrive on early downs, they have not performed well in obvious passing situations. QB KJ Jefferson has continued to struggle with accuracy down the field, and this Knights offense can be very vulnerable if the running game falters. Therefore, keep an eye on the battle upfront when the UCF offense is on the field.

Arizona Wildcats vs. UCF Knights Betting Trends

• Arizona is 1-7 ATS in the last eight games.
• Arizona has hit the “under” in 5 of the last seven games.
• Arizona is 4-2 SU in the last six games on the road.
• Arizona is 1-5 ATS in the last six games against Big 12 opponents.
• UCF is 1-4 ATS in the last five games.
• UCF has hit the “over” in six of the last eight games.
• UCF has hit the “over” in four of the last five games at home.
• UCF is 2-10 SU in the last 12 games against Big 12 opponents.

Arizona Wildcats vs. UCF Knights Betting Prediction

I’m just not convinced that UCF deserves to be a near-touchdown favorite over anyone at this point. I’m also somewhat optimistic about Arizona’s chances to win this game strictly from a match-up perspective. For those reasons, I’ll take the points with Arizona!

Jay’s Pick: Take Arizona +6.5!

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