Arizona vs. Texas Tech: College Football Picks and Predictions

Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-1 SU, ATS 2-1-1)  vs Arizona Wildcats (3-1 SU, ATS 1-2)
Date: 11:00 EST Saturday, October 5th
Location: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
TV: FOX
Point Spread: TT +6/AZ -6
Money Line: TT +180/AZ  -220
Over/Under: 64

Heading into this Week 6 college football matchup, the Arizona Wildcats are set to host the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Arizona Stadium in Tucson. Kick-off is scheduled for 11:00 ET, with FOX handling the broadcast. The over/under line is currently set at 64 points. The Wildcats are -6 point favorites at home. Arizona comes in with a 3-1 record, while Texas Tech is 4-1 on the season.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Texas Tech Red Raiders and Arizona Wildcats did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Texas Tech Red Raiders have a record of 2-1. However, against the spread, the Arizona Wildcats went 2-0-1. The over/under record in these matchups was 2-1 on an average of 63 points per game.

Texas Tech Red Raiders Recent Form:

Texas Tech enters Week 6 against Arizona with a 4-1 record, ranked 52nd in our power rankings. They have an 85.8% chance of becoming bowl-eligible but only a 5.1% shot at winning the Big 12. The Red Raiders are 3-0 at home but 0-1 on the road this season.

They’ve been favored in four of their five games, going 3-1 as the favorite. Texas Tech’s average scoring margin is +7.2 points per game, and they are 2-1-1 against the spread, with a 2-0-1 record at home.

The over/under line for this week is 64 points. Texas Tech’s games have averaged 76 points, with their over/under record at 2-2. Their average line has been 63.5 points, and they’ve exceeded it by an average of 5.8 points per game.

Texas Tech’s offense has been heavily focused on the passing game, ranking second in the nation in passing attempts, with 41.8 per game. They are also fifth in completions and ninth in passing yards, averaging 305.4 yards per game. Overall, they are 15th in scoring, with 41.6 points per game and ninth in third-down conversions, converting 51.9% of their attempts. Heading into week 6, they are ranked 54th in our offensive power rankings.

Quarterback Behren Morton has thrown for 1,426 yards with a passer rating of 105. He has 14 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. Tahj Brooks leads the rushing attack with 551 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry. Josh Kelly is the top receiver, with 39 catches for 487 yards and three touchdowns.

Texas Tech’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 34.4 points per game. In their recent matchup against Cincinnati, they gave up 41 points and 555 total yards, including 426 passing yards and four passing touchdowns, though they did manage one interception.

Opponents are averaging 309.4 passing yards per game against Texas Tech, completing 60.3% of their passes. The defense has also allowed 153.6 rushing yards per game on 35.6 attempts per contest.

Away Injury Report

Arizona Wildcats Recent Form:

Arizona enters Week 6 with a 3-1 record, ranked 44th in our CFB power rankings. They have an 85.5% chance of reaching bowl eligibility. At home, the Wildcats are 1-0, while they’ve split their road games at 1-1.

Arizona’s average scoring margin is +5.8 points per game, and they are 1-2 against the spread this season. They’ve been favored in one game, going 0-1 ATS as the favorite and 1-1 ATS as the underdog.

This week’s over/under line is 64 points. Arizona’s average O/U line is 56.2 points, with their over/under record at 1-2 and an average game total of 50.8 points.

Heading into week 6, Arizona’s offense ranks 52nd in our college football offensive power rankings, averaging 28.2 points per game. Quarterback Noah Fifita has thrown for 1,060 yards with seven touchdowns and four interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 93. Arizona is 51st in passing attempts, averaging 32.5 per game and 43rd in completions, with 20.5 per game. They are 60th in passing yards, averaging 265 per game.

Arizona has struggled on third downs, converting just 34.7% of their attempts. Leading the rushing attack is Quali Conley, with 322 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry. Tetairoa McMillan leads the receiving corps with 503 yards and four touchdowns on 29 catches.

Arizona’s defense played a key role in their 23-10 win over Utah, allowing just 10 points and limiting the Utes to 84 rushing yards on 29 attempts. The Wildcats also forced two interceptions, though they did give up 280 passing yards.

For the season, Arizona ranks 31st nationally, giving up 22.5 points per game. Opponents are averaging 155 rushing yards per game and 201.2 passing yards, completing 57% of their throws.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Across the Texas Tech Red Raiders’ last five road games, the team averaged 18 points per game while allowing 29. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 2-3 while going 2-3 straight-up.
• In their last five home games, Arizona has averaged 32 points per game while allowing 23. The team’s record in this stretch was 4-1 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
• The last ten games that Texas Tech was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 6-4 while going 5-5 straight up.
• In their last three contests as the favorite, Arizona has a poor record vs the spread going 1-2. But they still put together a straight-up mark of 3-0.

Free Pick

I have a good feeling that Arizona is going to roll in this one and jump all over Texas Tech. Between the two teams, Arizona is most capable of playing complementary football, and I see there being some good value in taking them at -6.