Arizona vs. Kansas State: 7-Point Spread Too Much?

The Arizona Wildcats take on the Kansas State Wildcats in a Friday night Big 12 special from Manhattan, Kansas. The parallels are striking on the surface—two teams both called the “Wildcats,” both with a 2-0 record without having covered a spread, and both top-20 teams. For Arizona, this is their maiden voyage into the Big 12 as a member of the conference. Following wins over New Mexico and Northern Arizona last week, 22-10, they now dip their big toe into the Big 12 Conference waters, their first opponent being no cupcake in Kansas State, fresh off a 34-27 win over Tulane on Saturday. Who should we get behind on Friday?

Early Signs

Both teams took care of business the first two weeks, while those getting behind them with bets have been empty-handed, with four non-covers between the two teams. I think Kansas State has been closer to where they’ve wanted to be—narrowly missing covering in their two games. Arizona has been more off the mark, particularly last week as 37-point favorites over NAU and, not taking a lead until the second half and winning by just 12.

Thus far, Kansas State has to be pleased with what they’re seeing on offense with the re-emergence of DJ Giddens, who already has two big games as he continues the form he established last season as KSU’s main man in the backfield and a guy who can also do damage aerially. Going back to last season, Giddens has six straight 100-yard games. QB Avery Johnson, seeing his first full-time usage behind center, has been adequate and should improve as he gets more acclimated to the role. On defense, we are already seeing a massive push up-front as the Wildcats look to set the tone on that side of the ball with a big pass-rush.

After putting up well over 600 yards of offense in their first game against the Lobos, the Arizona offense was due to cool off some, as they did against NAU. A lot of the promise some Arizona backers had after week one had dissipated by the end of the NAU game, where they started off very poorly and did just enough to skate by. QB Noah Fifita will be looking to bounce back. They’ve been getting good play from RB Quali Conley, a back who figures to give this offense a big boost. Jedd Fisch might be gone to Washington, but he left this program in good shape, going from one win to ten wins in two years.

What to Expect on Friday

I think this is where we start to see if there is going to be a real advantage for entrenched conference teams like Kansas State taking on these exiled Pac-12 teams playing in a new conference. Coming into unfamiliar territory for a conference game is a different experience. These conferences have their own feel, culture, and M.O. In the end, it’s still two teams playing a game, and Arizona’s lack of familiarity with Kansas State goes both ways, but I think these earlier-season conference spots on the road for deposed Pac-12 teams like Arizona could be extra tricky.

Now in his sixth season since taking over for coaching legend Bill Snyder, Kansas St. head coach Chris Klieman has taken a program that had been slipping and brought it back to being respectable with 19 wins in the last two seasons. They’ve scored some big wins had some tough and untimely losses, but you’re generally going to see a smoothly-run offense, a good running game, and a consistent team that usually stays within a certain range.

Still, the Wildcats’ game against Tulane was largely a struggle, and if not for Kansas State safety Jack Fabris returning a fumble for a TD in the 4th quarter, we might be talking about just one unbeaten team in this game. I’d look for better, however, at home this week. Any Arizona backers taking solace in KSU needing late-game dramatics to beat Tulane on the road should remember how Arizona was trailing in the second half at home to a worse NAU squad.

Not Easy to Embarrass Arizona

Even in the times we’ve seen Arizona come up short, they’re right in the game. In asking Kansas State to cover a -7 point spread, you’re asking them to do something no team did last season, including six different ranked former Pac-12 schools and Oklahoma. Arizona was actually 5-2 in those spots last season and never lost by more than 7. Things have changed. Jedd Fisch is no longer in the mix, as it is now Brent Brennan in control. Some pieces have been shuffled. But I wouldn’t be so quick to disregard them, even in this somewhat foreign (for them) Big 12 context.

Take the Points

While we’ve seen imperfections from both teams and we can’t too carried away with what we saw in the first two games, I think there could be some holes in the Kansas State defense. I see Noah Fifita getting a little more out of this Arizona offense aerially this week. Otherwise, they are teams with a comparable offensive approach with a similar caliber of player. I think Conley and the Arizona running game can match decently enough with Kansas State and Giddens to make this a game that’s pretty competitive, at least to the point where you feel pretty good about having 7 points. I’ll take Arizona.

Loot’s’ Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Arizona Wildcats plus 7 points.

Bankroll running low? Fix that with a 100% real cash bonus from one of numerous bookies on our sportsbook bonuses page!