Arizona Bowl Total Prediction: Miami RedHawks vs. CSU Rams

Miami (OH) RedHawks (8-5 SU, ATS 6-6)  vs Colorado State Rams (8-4 SU, ATS 6-4)

Date: 4:30 EST Saturday, December 28th

Location: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ

TV: CW

Point Spread: Mia-Oh -2.5/CSU +2.5 (Bet it FREE with a sportsbook promo code!)

Money Line: MU -138/Col St.  +114

Over/Under: 43.5

The Miami (OH) RedHawks and Colorado State Rams are set to face off in the Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl on Saturday, December 28th, with kick-off scheduled for 4:30 ET at Arizona Stadium in Tucson. The game is being broadcast on CW as both teams look to cap off their seasons with a win. Miami (OH) comes in with an 8-5 record, while Colorado State is 8-4. Miami (OH) is the slight -2.5-point favorite, and the over/under line is currently 43.5 points.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Miami (OH) RedHawks and Colorado State Rams did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Miami (OH) RedHawks have a record of 2-1. However, against the spread, the Colorado State Rams went 2-1. The over/under record in these matchups was 1-2 on an average of 46 points per game.

Miami (OH) RedHawks Recent Form:

Miami (OH) enters Week 1 against Colorado State with an 8-5 record. They’ve gone 4-2 at home and 3-3 on the road this season. The RedHawks have been favored in seven of their 13 games, posting a 6-1 record as the favorite.

Against the spread, Miami (OH) is 6-6, with a +3.7 average scoring margin. They are 4-3 ATS as the favorite and have split their home and road ATS records at 3-3 each.

The over/under line for this week is 43.5 points. Miami (OH) has a 5-6-1 over/under record, with their games averaging 41.5 points. Their average over/under line this season has been 44.5 points.

Miami (OH) enters the season with an offense that ranks 98th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 22.6 points per game. Their third-down conversion rate is just 33.1%, placing them 118th nationally. On the ground, they average 130.3 rushing yards per game.

Quarterback Brett Gabbert leads the passing attack with 2,737 yards and 21 touchdowns, though he has 11 interceptions and a passer rating of 89. Miami (OH) is 51st in passing attempts per game, averaging 220 yards through the air. Javon Tracy has 818 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.

Miami (OH)’s defense, ranked 19th nationally, has allowed an average of 18.9 points per game this season. They’ve given up 137.9 rushing yards per game and 184.5 passing yards, which ranks 35th in the country, with opposing quarterbacks posting a 71.3 passer rating.

In their recent game, Miami’s defense struggled, allowing 38 points and 468 total yards, including 233 rushing yards and 235 passing yards. They also gave up three rushing touchdowns and two passing scores.

Away Injury Report

Colorado State Rams Recent Form:

Colorado State enters their Week 1 game against Miami (OH) with an 8-4 record. At home, they’ve gone 5-1, while they are 2-2 on the road. The Rams have been favored in seven games, going 7-0 in those matchups, but they are 0-3 as underdogs this season.

Their ATS record stands at 6-4, with a +0.7 average scoring margin. As favorites, they’ve covered the spread in six of seven games (6-1 ATS), and they are 4-2 against the spread at home.

Colorado State’s over/under record is 3-7, with their games averaging 49.3 points. The average over/under line for their games has been 52 points, and this week’s line is set at 43.5 points.

Heading into week 11, Colorado State’s offense is averaging 25 points per game, placing them 67th in the nation. Our power rankings have them 103rd. They are converting just 35% of their third downs, which ranks 109th nationally. On the ground, they are averaging 171.8 rushing yards per game.

Avery Morrow leads the rushing attack with 956 yards, nine touchdowns, and an average of 5 yards per carry. Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has thrown for 2,456 yards, 13 touchdowns, and six interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 90.

Colorado State’s defense has allowed an average of 24.3 points per game this season, including 37 points in their recent 42-37 win over Utah State. They gave up 486 total yards, with 297 rushing yards on 48 attempts and 189 passing yards, while also forcing two interceptions.

Opponents have averaged 156 rushing yards per game on 34.8 attempts and 238.5 passing yards against Colorado State’s defense, ranking them 125th nationally in passing yards allowed.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Through their last ten road games, Miami (OH) has an ATS record of just 6-4. However, their overall record was 6-4 while averaging 20 points per game.
• In their last three home games, Colorado State has averaged 27 points per game while allowing 20. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
• The last three games that Colorado State was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 0-3 straight up.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Miami (OH) RedHawks have a straight up record of 9-1. Their record vs the spread in these games was 5-5.

Free Pick

From a point spread perspective, this is a tough one to gauge, as these teams are fairly evenly matched on both sides of the ball. Miami is slightly higher in our power rankings, but I could easily see Colorado State winning this one outright. But where I do feel good is on the over/under line, as points are going to be tough to come by. The way I’m playing this one is to take the under at 43.5 points.

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