App State vs. Marshall Picks: Sun Belt Week 6 Betting Predictions

Where: Joan C. Edwards Stadium (Huntington, WV)
When: Saturday, October 5th at 3:30 PM EST
Watch: ESPN+

Betting Odds

• Spread: Marshall -3.0
• Over/Under: 58.0

Game Preview

The Appalachian State Mountaineers make the short trip to West Virginia to take on the Marshall Thundering Herd in a Sun Belt conference matchup. Intraconference games are always tough to predict, and this one is no different. Both teams have contrasting styles, and the team that can impose their game plan will likely come out on top. Let’s dive into each team’s strengths and weaknesses to see how this contest might unfold.

Appalachian State Mountaineers

After a week off due to Hurricane Helene, Appalachian State returns to action. Their offense is heavily dependent on the passing game, ranking 23rd in the nation with 307.5 passing yards per game. Quarterback Joey Aguilar leads the way with 1,230 yards on 164 attempts, though his 56.7% completion rate leaves room for improvement. While Aguilar has a 2:1 TD-to-interception ratio, the Mountaineers’ ground game has struggled, averaging just 130.8 rushing yards per game. On the defensive side, App State has allowed 463.5 total yards and 35.8 points per game, making them vulnerable.

Marshall Thundering Herd

Marshall, true to their name, focuses on the ground game, averaging 193.5 rushing yards per contest. With a strong backfield rotation and a mobile quarterback in Stone Earle, they keep defenses on their heels. Earle also has a solid 7:1 TD-to-interception ratio, though the Herd’s passing attack only averages 184.2 yards per game. Defensively, Marshall is excellent against the pass, ranking 70th nationally and limiting opponents to 175.8 passing yards per game. This strength could be a deciding factor against a pass-heavy Appalachian State offense.

Key Matchups

App State’s Passing Attack vs. Marshall’s Pass Defense

The Mountaineers’ passing game is their primary weapon, but they’ll be facing a tough Marshall defense that excels at shutting down opposing quarterbacks. With Aguilar’s inconsistency, it will be challenging for App State to exploit this defense through the air.

Marshall’s Rushing Attack vs. App State’s Run Defense

Marshall’s ground game is their bread and butter, and with Appalachian State struggling to stop the run, the Herd should be able to control the clock and pace of the game. A.J. Turner and the other Marshall backs will look to wear down the Mountaineers’ defense.

Betting Trends

• Marshall: The Thundering Herd have been solid defensively, holding teams to low yardage through the air. They should capitalize on a Mountaineers defense that has struggled all season.
• Appalachian State: The Mountaineers have shown an ability to score through the air, but their weak defense and reliance on the pass could be their downfall against a more balanced Marshall team.

Final Pick

My Pick: Marshall Thundering Herd -3.0 (-110)

Marshall’s ground control game and stout defense give them the upper hand in this matchup. While Appalachian State may be more rested, their defensive struggles will likely be exploited by Marshall’s rushing attack. The Mountaineers’ one-dimensional offense plays right into the strengths of Marshall’s defense. A three-point spread seems manageable, and Marshall could win this game by double digits. Additionally, the under (58.0) could be a solid secondary play, with both teams likely to rely on clock control.