App State vs. Louisiana Pick: Will This Game Be a Shootout or a Snoozefest?
App St/La Laf Under
If I could, if it wasn’t in bad taste, (not to mention frowned upon by Google rankings) I would have entitled this article using just one word.
A four-letter word.
Yes, THAT word.
The F word.
All capital letters.
Large print.
Bold font.
Three exclamation marks after it.
Why?
Because I may have seen the last of the play I call NP Under.
For the second week in a row, nothing qualifies.
This has never happened before.
The data source I use for a part of the qualifying parameters on this particular play may have changed methodology.
I’ll find out soon enough, but it doesn’t look good.
17-7, 70% this season.
134-81, 62 % in the past five years.
The best, most consistent system I have. And it may be gone.
Ugh.
Double and triple Ugh.
Coincidentally (good fortune?) I have a new system I’m trying out for totals this week, hoping it’ll kick out some viable plays. Looks like I’m going to need it now. (I’ll share it in the PredictEm forum later today.)
For this week’s total, I’m going to use the Appalachian State/La Lafayette game.
It barely misses qualifying for an NP Under. But it qualifies using the old parameters when I used a differential of five points between my number and the book’s.
For some reason I changed it to a seven point differential in 2023.
I checked my logbook and I don’t see a note on the reason why the change was made.
It can only be for one of two reasons – it was kicking out too many plays with a five-point differential or, more likely, I found that if I upped it to a full touchdown differential of seven points I got a higher Win percentage.
That’s not making sense to me right now, not sure what I was thinking when I changed the parameters, because in the first three years, using the five-point differential, the record was 96-57, 62%.
ANYTHING over 58% is gold.
62% is triple platinum.
I’m hoping these past two weeks were just a freak occurrence, and things will be back to normal where I average four NP Unders per week.
Time will tell.
The common number on App St/La Laf is sitting at 65 right now.
Looking at recent play, the Mountaineers are 2-3 O/Un, the Ragin’ Cajuns are the same, 2-3.
PF/PA, Mountaineer’s games average 59
points, Cajuns 61.
Three of five App State games have come in Under this game’s total.
Same for Louisiana, three of five were Under this total.
They haven’t faced each other since 2021, no relevant data to look at there.
But I do have this in my favor for my play on the Under: App state has been in the NP Under spot once this year, back on September 14th vs East Carolina.
The total was 59.
The final score was 21-19.
Under by 19 points.
I used it for a W in the PredictEm forum.
And I stick with what works so I’m using them again this week.
When to Buy Recommendation
This game opened at 63′.
It’s now sitting at 65.
I’m good with 65 for this spot but as long as it’s rising, and kickoff is still a few days away, I may as well wait another day or two. I might be able to get a little bit more, which coincidentally is the same thing Mr. Burns replied when Homer said to him, “You’re the richest guy I know.”
Burns: “Yes, but I’d trade it all for just a little more.”
Saturday’s play:
App St/La Laf Un (wait to buy it)
Update on my WNBA championship series bet: Back on September 18th my homepage column gave a detailed analysis on the eight team WNBA playoffs.
If my projections were accurate the championship series would end up being played between the New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx.
I took both teams at plus odds, Minnesota +300, New York +140, giving myself a guaranteed profit if I turned out to be correct in my analysis.
The final teams have been set – Minnesota and New York.
NY is now -240, Min is +240.
Smart and timely shopping leaves me with a better price on both.
My pick for the winner?
Who cares??!!
That’s the beauty of having a guaranteed profit regardless of who wins.
Based on what I saw in the postseason, I see why the Liberty are at such a high price. They have a deeper bench than the Lynx, and they have more experience than the younger Minnesota team.
They have a determined look on their face. And they have hunger after getting KO’d in the championship last year.
But vanquishing their conqueror, the former champions from Las Vegas in the semifinals, did not satisfy their hunger.
You could see it readily apparent on their faces at the end of the elimination game that sent the Aces home.
Sabrina Ionescu wasn’t celebrating on the court.
She wasn’t hugging everyone and giving high-fives.
She wasn’t even smiling.
She was shouting at her teammates, “We’re not done yet! We’re not done yet!”
She was keeping her team focused.
She was reminding them they had more work to do.
That’s leadership.
So yes, New York does look like the team that will take home the trophy.
But remember this from my article with the postseason analysis: the winner of the Commissioner’s Cup in the WNBA earned a $40,000 bonus for each player.
The game was played between New York and Minnesota, and the Liberty had a home-court advantage. They were -5 Favs.
Final score? 94-89 Minnesota.
When the money was on the table, the Lynx spanked the Liberty.
The money is on the table again, 25k for each player on the championship team.
And the Lynx have the hot hand, going 14-2 and a final games of the regular season and 6-2 in the playoffs thus far.
So who’s going to win?
Like I said above, it doesn’t matter; who cares? That’s the beauty of . . .
