Alamo Bowl Predictions: Arizona vs. Oklahoma Pick

The Arizona Wildcats and the Oklahoma Sooners face off on Thursday in the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio. Oklahoma is coming off a ten-win season that could have been special if not for two close road losses. They enter this with some good momentum with three straight wins, including their last one, a 69-45 win over TCU on November 24. Arizona, however, really got on a roll to end the season, finishing with 6 straight wins. They last played on the 25th of November, beating in-state rival ASU, 59-23. Who should we get behind in what looks like an exciting Alamo Bowl matchup?

A Tough Call

Both teams enter this with some steam. For Oklahoma, those two straight road losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State kept them from bigger things, but the way they bounced back was impressive. While both teams are a combined 18-6 against the spread this season, Oklahoma has been a less reliable proposition in the second half of the season. Arizona, meanwhile, has failed to cover just one spread since September 23, completely flipping the script this season with a bunch of conference wins, most of them pretty conclusive.

Arizona having to come out of the comfort zone of the soon-to-be-defunct Pac-12 to take on a Big 12 power with at least a slight geographical advantage might be a tough context in which to thrive. In either event, Wildcats’ head coach Jedd Fisch, along with his staff and players, orchestrated a massive about-face for this program. You’d have to think they want to add this cherry on top, but we’re just more accustomed to Oklahoma getting what they want more than Arizona when it comes to college football. It’s still hard to low-rate an Arizona team that isn’t your average 9-win team. They’re a team that was long denied success on a big run of wins, and it might not be that easy to separate them from that hard-fought momentum.

Reasons to Like Arizona

Not to imply that Oklahoma is phoning this one in, but I think it will be difficult to match the enthusiasm of an Arizona team that was buoyed this season by their spirit and energy. This is not “old hat” for them, and they should be pumped up to be in the Alamo Bowl, maybe a notch more than an Oklahoma team where this was definitely not their goal. As far as on-the-field stuff, a lot of that falls in line for this spot for Arizona, as well. Naturally, they’re going to need to rely on defense in this matchup, a part of their team that has gotten better over the course of this season.

The Arizona offense really stepped up this season, especially when QB Noah Fifita took over the starting QB job. They have a cast of dangerous receivers, led by Tetairoa McMillan and Jacob Cowing, who have combined for almost 2000 yards and 21 TDs. Jonah Coleman leads a dangerous backfield that can do damage. Not having their starting left tackle for this game isn’t good, but on the heels of a transcendent season for this program, not a ton of guys hit the transfer portal. Again, this all bears watching leading up to game-time.

Issues for Oklahoma in this Spot?

With all the time between the last regular season game and this bowl, the Sooners have seen more things disrupt the formula. Offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby left to take the head coaching gig at Mississippi State, leaving a void in the offensive play-calling duties. Starting QB Dillon Gabriel is in the transfer portal, so going to sparsely-used Jackson Arnold and not the guy who had 40 touchdowns has to cost them. Throw in three running backs entering the portal, along with a chunk of their starting O-line, and it’s just making it an unideal situation. The Sooners defense also took some bad hits in this area. They’re going against a “D” that’s peaking and going to bring a ton of energy at far less than full strength. Sure, some of these players stepping into key roles are good prospects who want to make a good impression, but starters are starters for a reason, and missing a gaggle of them heading into this spot could prove to be costly.

It’s not just the loss of Gabriel. Arnold could grow into the role with some extended practice with the first team and didn’t look bad in a smallish window this season, with Gabriel having been healthy this year. It’s all the other opt-outs that, when combined, paint a picture of an Oklahoma team that hit this point in the season a little down. As opposed to the Wildcats, their defense seemed to ebb as the season took its course. But then again, it’s not often you see the Sooners in this underdog role, and maybe there’s some appeal in that. It’s certainly not much of a cushion, but you could almost see a position on the Sooners from a value standpoint.

Lay the Points

For those who have spent recent seasons betting on college football, it’s not often you would’ve found yourself saying that you’re going to take Arizona giving points to Oklahoma. It’s almost a psychological barrier to overcome in itself. And maybe beating Oklahoma in a bowl-setting is another step they have to overcome, but they just seem like the more positive-moving team at this point and, despite having one less win, appeared the better team to close the season. Combine that with entering this more intact, I’m OK laying the small number. I’ll take Arizona in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Arizona Wildcats minus 2.5 points.