Alamo Bowl Picks: Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners

When: Wednesday, Dec. 29th, 2021, 9:15 pm (ET)

Where: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: ORE +4.5/OU -4.5 (Opened at 4 at Bovada – Home of the 50% real cash bonus and rebates on ALL your bets; win or lose!)

Total: 61.5 (Opened at 62)

Money Line: ORE +160/OU -190

Power Rating: OU -3

Key Injuries

Oregon Ducks: DE Kayvon Thibodeaux *Out* (Declared for draft), OL Ryan Walk *Out* (Leg), S Steve Stephens *Questionable* (Lower Body), WR Jaylon Redd *Out* (Undisclosed), WR Johnny Johnson *Out* (Lower Body), OL Bram Walden *Out* (Leg), S Bennett Williams *Out* (Leg), RB CJ Verdell *Out* (Leg), RB Sean Dollars *Out* (Knee), TE Patrick Herbert *Out* (Knee), DT Jaylen Smith *Out* (Undisclosed), LB Jonathan Flowe *Out* (Leg), LB Dru Mathis *Out* (Knee), TE Cam McCormick *Out* (Leg), S JJ Greenfield *Out* (Suspension)

Oklahoma Sooners: WR Theo Wease *Questionable* (Leg), WR Drake Stoops *Questionable* (Undisclosed), DB Jeremiah Criddell *Out* (Undisclosed), WR Cody Jackson *Out* (Personal), LB Nathan Rawlins-Kibonge *Out* (Undisclosed), DB Kendall Dennis *Out* (Undisclosed)

Recent Form

The Oregon Ducks finished the 2021 season with a 10-3 record. After having a spot in the College Football Playoff, Oregon had their National Championship hopes spoiled by the Utah Utes. Utah, in fact, handed Oregon two of their three losses this season in the final weeks of the season. Oregon’s most notable win this year came on the road over Ohio State 35-28. The Ducks offense is ranked 53rd in FBS with 418.0 YPG and sits inside the top 50 with 31.4 points per game. The Oregon defense is 60th in the nation in both yards allowed and points allowed, allowing 371.8 YPG and 25.4 points per game.

The Oklahoma Sooners finished the 2021 season with a 10-2 record, the third-best mark in the Big 12. Like Oregon, the Sooners saw their playoff bid slip away after losing two of their last three games, including a 37-33 loss to Oklahoma State. Oklahoma avoided multiple upsets this year, with seven of their 12 games ending in a seven-point or less margin. The Sooners’ most notable win of the season came in a Red River shootout vs. Texas in a 55-48 final that came down to the final seconds. The Oklahoma offense is the 28th best in the nation for yards at 441.6 YPG and 10th in scoring with 38.4 points per game. The Sooner defense is 70th, allowing 381.9 YPG and 56th in scoring, allowing 25.2 points per game.

Ducks Defense Will Struggle

For this matchup, it goes without saying that both teams will rely heavily on their offense to carry them to a victory as their defenses have not played well down the stretch. The defense that sticks out to me as having a tougher time keeping up in this one is Oregon. The Ducks defense held opposing offenses under 20 points just four times in their 13 games. To finish the season, Oregon gave up 35 points per game in their last three games as their defense couldn’t get off the field on third down, allowing a 56.8% conversion rate. Faring against the Oklahoma offense won’t be any easier, as the Sooners finished the year in the top 10 for scoring offenses. To stack the odds against them even more, Oregon will be without projected No. 1 pick in the upcoming draft: Kayvon Thibodeaux. Thibodeaux is the heart and soul of the Ducks defense and will leave a big set of shoes to fill in the Oregon pass rush. Without Thibodeaux and the Oregon defense’s trends, I see the Sooners offense being too much for them to handle.

Ducks Lose Without a Running Game

On the other side of the ball, the Oregon offense has become one-dimensional in their downfall to end the season. When the Ducks abandon their run game or don’t see production, the team has often found themselves on the short end of the scoreboard. From a bettor’s perspective, the Ducks are 5-12 ATS when rushing for less than 100 yards in a game. Typically, when playing against a Big 12 team, I wouldn’t take this trend into account as the Big 12 is notoriously known for “not playing defense” with high-scoring games, but the Oklahoma Sooners have an admirable run defense. Oklahoma has the 24th best run defense, allowing 123.8 YPG rushing. Keeping the Oregon offense under 100 yards in this game would indeed force them to be one-dimensional again and give opportunities for more mistakes and turnovers.

Oklahoma Fares Better in Bowl Games

In recent history, both teams have a 2-3 record in their last five bowl appearances. Oklahoma is coming off a 2020 bowl win over Florida, 55-20. Last year the Ducks lost to Iowa State 34-17. While both teams have struggled to get bowl wins, Oklahoma has fared well against the spread, going 5-2 ATS in their last seven bowl games and 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games. Oregon is 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games and 1-1 ATS in Alamo Bowl appearances.

The Historicals

These two teams have met seven times in their schools’ history. Oklahoma is 6-1 all-time vs. Oregon, with Oregon’s lone win coming in their most recent matchup in 2006, which was a 34-33 final.

How the Public is Betting the Ducks vs. Sooners

69% are betting the Sooners to cover the spread.

65% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 61.5.

More Picks: Las Vegas Bowl Odds & Predictions 12/30/21 >>>

Betting Trends Worth Noting

• The Oregon Ducks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games vs. teams with a winning record.
• The Oregon Ducks are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games.
• The Oklahoma Sooners are 5-2 in their last seven bowl games.
• The Oklahoma Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games as a favorite.
• The Oklahoma Sooners are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with a winning record.
• The Under is 5-1 in the Ducks’ last six games as an underdog.
• The Under is 4-1 in the Ducks’ last five games vs. Big 12 opponents.
• The Under is 4-1 in the Sooners’ last five bowl games as a favorite.
• The Over is 5-1 in the Sooners’ last six games vs. PAC-12 opponents.

Collin’s Pick for the Alamo Bowl

While this game has the makings to be a high-scoring affair, a wild card to consider is that both teams are without the head coach that led them for the whole season. This will be something to pay attention to in the early stages of the game for decision-making and play calling. With that said, I am still giving the nod to the team that has more of their key players from the regular season and has the better offense: Oklahoma. Take the Oklahoma Sooners to cover the 4.5-point spread. Bet your bowl game picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use bonus code PREDICT100).