Alamo Bowl Pick: Iowa State Cyclones vs Washington State

No. 24 Iowa State Cyclones (8-4, 6-6 ATS) at N0. 13 Washington State Cougars (10-2 SU, 10-2 ATS)

Date: Friday, December 28, 2018 9PM EST
Location: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX.
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: ISU +3.5/WSU -3.5
Total: 54.5
Power Ratings: WSU by 6

Takeaways from the regular season

The Washington State Cougar’s takeaway from this season although a good record at 10-2 was somewhat jaded when they lost to the Washington Huskies in the Apple Cup for a 6th straight year. The loss knocked the Cougars out of the Rose Bowl and soured an otherwise exciting season. That said, the Cougs still finished the regular season with several accolades. Mike Leach was voted Coach of the Year for the Pac 12, QB Gardner Minshew won the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award and the Cougs were the top passing team in the nation. In addition, Coach Leach will likely have an easier time recruiting given the attention WSU grabbed this year with their first ever hosting of ESPN’s College Gameday and the Minshew Mustache phenomenon, not to mention their play on the field.

Iowa State’s takeaway from this season was a respectable record at 8-4 with notable, tough, but quality losses to Texas and TCU. The Cyclones cracked the top 25 and are looking forward to this bowl game—in fact they have sold all of their allotted tickets (13,500) while WSU fans are still getting over the let-down of losing the Apple Cup and a chance for a Rose Bowl trip—WSU fans have only purchased 4,500 tickets so far. Iowa State might just have the 12th Man covered in this contest.

How the Public is Betting the Game

The public is currently betting WSU 64 percent and Iowa State 36 percent. The Over is getting 58 percent action, and the Under is 42 percent.

The Historical

These teams have not played each other. WSU has been to 14 bowl games and had a .500 record at 7-7. The Cougs have lost their last two bowl games, both in the Holiday Bowl, 17-12 to Minnesota, 2016 and 42-17 to Michigan State, 2017. Iowa State has been to 12 bowl games and is 3-9 with their last appearance in the 2012 Liberty Bowl where they lost to Tulsa 31-17.

Injury Concerns

Washington State:

• 12/03 DB Sean Harper Jr. is questionable for Alamo Bowl—lower-body injury. He’s missed the last 5 games.

Iowa State:

• 12/28 DB Datrone Young is questionable with a shoulder injury.
• 12/28 DB D’Andre Payne is questionable with an upper-body injury.

When Washington State has the Ball

Washington State will do what they do best—run the air-raid offense. QB Gardner Minshew has more than enough targets including his two RBs out of the backfield, Borghi and Williams who not only run well but they are good receivers too. WSU’s offensive line has been one of the best in the country allowing only 9 sacks all season.

When ISU has the Ball

Iowa State will bring a balanced offense, but they are more dangerous with the running game. Junior RB David Montgomery rushed for over a thousand yards in the regular season for the second consecutive year. The Hawkeyes running game will dictate their attack and success versus the Cougs.

Betting Trends

• WSU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 versus Big 12
• The Under is 7-0-1 in Cougars last 8 games after a double-digit loss at home.
• The Under is 4-0-1 in Iowa State last 5 non-conference games.
• Head to Head—no recent history

Weather Report

Game time outside the dome will be in the mid to upper 50s with 7 mph winds and 72 percent humidity but inside the dome will nice and cozy with perfect conditions for a bowl game!

Dave Wilson’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Washington State is the stronger team in this game. The Cougs are better at most key positions which will show throughout the game. Wazzu has the advantages in points per game, yards allowed, yards gained, and time of possession. Coug’s QB Gardner Minshew leads the team to a victory and their 11th win to close out the year. I like the Cougs to cover the spread.

Wilson’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Washington State Cougars cover. Luck to ya.