Alabama vs. Michigan Bowl Game: Expert Predictions and Best Bets

Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3 SU, ATS 6-5)  vs Michigan Wolverines (7-5 SU, ATS 5-7)
Date: 12:00 EST Tuesday, December 31st
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
TV: ESPN
Point Spread: UA -11.5/UM +11.5
Money Line: UA -458/UM  +344
Over/Under: 43.5

ESPN will be covering the matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Michigan Wolverines as they face off at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. Kick-off is set for 12:00 ET on Tuesday, December 31st. Although Michigan is technically the home team, this game is being played on a neutral site. The Tide come in with a 9-3 record, while the Wolverines are 7-5. The over/under line is 43.5 points, with Alabama favored at -11.5 points.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Alabama Crimson Tide and Michigan Wolverines did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Alabama Crimson Tide have a record of 2-1. The Alabama Crimson Tide also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 53 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 1-2.

Alabama Crimson Tide Recent Form:

Alabama enters Week 1 against Michigan with a 9-3 record, going 6-0 at home and 2-3 on the road. They’ve been favored in 10 of their 12 games, holding a 7-3 record as the favorite. At home, Alabama is 5-0 when favored, but they’ve struggled on the road, going 2-3 in those matchups.

Their ATS record is 6-5, with a +18.2 average scoring margin this season. Alabama is 4-2 against the spread at home and 2-3 on the road. As the favorite, they are 5-5 ATS, and they’ve covered in their lone game as the underdog.

Alabama’s over/under record stands at 5-6, with their games averaging 52.8 points. The average over/under line for their games has been 53.8 points, and this week’s line is set at 43.5 points, the lowest they’ve faced this season.

Alabama’s offense is ranked 13th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 11, and they are 15th in points per game, scoring 35.5. Their third-down conversion rate is impressive at 48.7%, ranking 11th nationally. Jalen Milroe has thrown for 2,657 yards and has a 66% completion rate. However, he has ten interceptions to go along with 15 touchdowns, and his passer rating is 98.

Alabama is averaging 184.8 rushing yards per game, ranking 40th in rushing attempts. Jam Miller leads the team with 641 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 4 yards per carry. Ryan Williams is the top receiver with 857 yards and eight touchdowns on 45 catches.

Alabama’s defense, ranked 8th nationally, has allowed just 17.2 points per game this season. In their recent game against Auburn, they gave up 14 points but forced two interceptions. Auburn managed 399 total yards, including 301 passing yards, but Alabama held them to 98 rushing yards on 23 attempts.

Opponents have averaged 141.9 rushing yards per game against Alabama, while quarterbacks have posted a 73.4 passer rating, completing 61% of their throws. Alabama’s defense has faced an average of 31.7 pass attempts per game, ranking 43rd in the nation by allowing 191.2 passing yards per game.

Away Injury Report

Michigan Wolverines Recent Form:

Michigan enters Week 13 with a 7-5 record, hosting Alabama. The Wolverines are 6-2 at home but just 1-3 on the road. They’ve been favored in six games this season, going 5-1 in those matchups.

Their ATS record stands at 5-7, with a +1.8 average scoring margin. At home, they are 3-5 against the spread and 2-4 as the favorite.

This week’s over/under line is 43.5 points. Michigan’s games have averaged 42.8 points, with their over/under record at 7-5 and an average line of 42.1 points.

Michigan’s offense has been underwhelming heading into week 1, ranking 82nd in points per game with 22.2 and 79th in our offensive power rankings. Their passing game has struggled, averaging just 133.6 yards per game, placing them 127th nationally. They are 98th in passing attempts and 80th in completions.

Davis Warren, Michigan’s quarterback, has thrown for 1,126 yards with six touchdowns and nine interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 69. On the ground, the Wolverines average 161.3 rushing yards per game. Kalel Mullings leads the team with 948 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns.

Michigan’s defense played a crucial role in their recent 13-10 win over Ohio State, allowing just 10 points and forcing two interceptions. They limited the Buckeyes to 252 total yards, including 77 rushing yards on 26 attempts and 175 passing yards.

On the season, Michigan ranks 8th nationally in rushing yards allowed, giving up just 93.2 yards per game. Opponents have averaged 218.3 passing yards per game and completed 61.2% of their throws against Michigan’s defense.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Across the Alabama Crimson Tide’s last three road games, the team averaged 20 points per game while allowing 20. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 1-2 while going 1-2 straight-up.
• Through their last ten home games, Michigan has an ATS record of just 7-3. However, their overall record was 7-3 while averaging 27 points per game.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Michigan has an ATS mark of 3-2 while going 2-3 straight up.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Alabama Crimson Tide have a strong straight up record of 4-1. In addition, their ATS record was 4-1 in these scenarios.

Free Pick

Even though we have two of the premier programs in college football facing off, Alabama and Michigan are meeting up outside of the CFB playoff. Right now, the line sits at -11.5 in favor of Alabama. Both teams will have been off since November 30th, while Michigan will be looking to build on where they left off with a huge win over Ohio State. Even with a chance to knock off another premier opponent, I see Michigan struggling in this one. At -11.5, I still feel good about the Crimson Tide. I’m taking Alabama to win and cover.

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