Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Spread Pick

Alabama Crimson Tide (3-1 SU, ATS 4-0) vs Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-2 SU, ATS 0-2)

Date: Saturday, September 30th

Location: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Ala -14/MSU +14 (You can make MSU a +34 underdog by inserting them into a 20 point college football teaser found at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)

Money Line: Bama -737/Miss St +501

Over/Under: 46

The Alabama Crimson Tide and Mississippi State Bulldogs matchup in a SEC showdown at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS. The over/under for this matchup is currently 46 while Alabama is favored by -14.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The most recent matchup between these teams finished with a 30-6 win for Alabama. Offensively, Alabama ran for 29 yards and put up 261 in the passing game. On the other side, Mississippi State ended the game with 293 yards of offense.

Alabama Crimson Tide Recent Form:

The Alabama Crimson Tide are heading into this week’s game with an above .500 record of 3-1. In their most recent game, they added a win to their record by taking down Ole Miss (24-10).

Looking at the point-spread for this game, Alabama covered as 7-point favorites. While on the over/under, the betting line was 56 at game time, resulting in a hit for the under.

Against Ole Miss, Jalen Milroe threw for 225 yards on a completion percentage of 81.0%. In the win, he threw one touchdown and had a passer rating of 107.34.

Jase McClellan was Alabama’s leading rusher vs. Ole Miss, carrying the ball 17 times for 105 yards and one touchdown. Jalen Hale emerged as the team’s top receiver, scoring one touchdown and making two receptions for 63 yards.

Against Ole Miss, the Crimson Tide defense was excellent against Ole Miss, giving up just 10 points on 301 yards allowed. Ole Miss’ passing game finished with 245 yards. Up-front, Alabama gave up 1.9 yards per attempt. In terms of passing yards allowed per game, Alabama’s defense is ranked 134th. Opponents, on average, attempt 34.2 passes against the Crimson Tide. They are allowing 13.5 PPG, which places them 28th in college football. Their rush defense ranks 36th in the NCAA.

Away Injury Report

Mississippi State Bulldogs Recent Form:

Following their recent defeat against South Carolina, the Bulldogs find themselves back at .500 as they approach this week’s matchup with a 2-2 record.

Looking at the over/under in this matchup, the line was 46.5 and with their 67 points, the over hit. Against the spread, Mississippi State went into the game as 5.5-point underdogs giving them an ATS and straight-up loss.

In the passing attack, Will Rogers had a big game through the air vs. South Carolina, throwing for 487 yards while completing 30 of his 48 attempts. Overall, he averaged 16.2 yards per completion and finished with a passer rating of 94.7.

Mississippi State’s leading rusher against South Carolina was Jo’quavious Marks, who rushed for 27 yards and found the endzone one time on 12 carries. The team’s top receiver was Lideatrick Griffin, who hauled in one touchdown and caught seven balls for 256 yards.

Defensively, Mississippi State allowed a total of 432 yards to South Carolina. This includes giving up 144 yards allowed on the ground and 288 passing yards. The Bulldogs’ defense has given up 120.2 rushing yards per game this season, which is 140th. Opponents are recording an average of 280 passing yards, and opposing quarterbacks come in with a passer rating of 108.5 when playing against Mississippi State. In terms of points allowed, they currently sit 34th in NCAA rankings.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Alabama’s three most recent games vs. the spread has seen them go 1-2 against the spread.
• Looking across Mississippi State’s ten most recent home games, they are 5-5 against the spread.
• In the three most recent times they were the underdog, Mississippi State has put together an ATS record of 1-2.
• The previous ten time that Alabama was favored, they are 4-5-1 against the spread.

Line Movement:

In the context of the current moneyline odds, Mississippi State currently holds a 17% implied win probability, accompanied by a moneyline payout of +485. On the flip side, the Crimson Tide’s implied win percentage is 88% with a moneyline of -705. Since the lines have opened, Alabama has moved from -15 point favorites to their current line of -14 (-109). Mississippi State is currently +14 (-112) point underdogs at home. The over/under market has seen alterations from its opening at 49, now resting at 46.5.

Free Pick

With Alabama coming off a big win and Mississippi State dropping their last game, I’m expecting the Crimson Tide to pick yet another win. When it comes to getting a bet down on the spread, I like Alabama to have its way on offense and cover at -14.