Alabama Crimson Tide 2024 Season Wins Prediction: Over/Under Analysis

Alabama Crimson Tide Season Wins Predictions

Alabama Crimson Tide Season Wins Over/Under Pick

Bovada Betting Line: Over 9.5 Wins (+110), Under 9.5 Wins (-145)

Analysis

The season total in wins for Alabama this season is 9.5, with the “under” favored at +110. That’s going to be, at root, a tantalizing number for some, especially those who have watched this team eclipse that total, usually significantly, for 16 consecutive seasons. To be getting a plus-number on them just getting to double-digits seems doable. And maybe it is. But don’t forget that conference championship games and bowl wins don’t count toward this total. It’s strictly regular season games—the ones you can now see on the schedule.

Nick Saban at Alabama had become an institution. For almost two decades, he had turned Alabama into one of the better programs, and even at their worst, they were always good, as their 16-year run of double-digit win seasons would attest. And maybe Kalen DeBoer, who whipped that Washington program into shape, can step in and keep the machine going forward for the most part.

It’s just that when you combine the slight downward trajectory of the program, the revamped leadership, and the exodus of talent that left as a result of Saban’s unexpected retirement, you can at least understand the notion that this 2024 ‘Bama bunch might be a bit below what we’re used to seeing. And that’s not to imply they had totally fallen off, but after being a fixture in the College Football Playoff with six appearances in seven seasons, they had been shut out of the big-time postseason picture for two straight seasons.

There is a certain level of inescapable math at play in this equation. The Crimson Tide have 12 games to beat this total, meaning they need a 10-2 record for those who take the more optimistic side of this bet. And that’s not the easiest outcome to project with games at Wisconsin, at home against Georgia, at Tennessee, at LSU, and at Oklahoma. And that’s if they get through their other games, which include South Carolina, an 11-win Missouri team from last season, and Auburn, which might not all be easy-breezy. Even an early-season spot with USF is tricky. They’re going to deliver in some, and maybe most of these spots, but a prediction that forecasts two or fewer setbacks on this path would qualify as optimistic. Is it a little too hopeful for the somewhat-modest +110 return?

Sure, on the overall power scale, Alabama still ranks high among the teams they are playing. Only far-and-away SEC favorite Georgia is a more-fancied team heading into 2024, and the Tide do get that one at home. A trio of games on the road against Tennessee, new SEC team Oklahoma, and LSU are tough tests, but Alabama could pull through and get through this campaign with just a loss or two. It’s something that can be envisioned.

Those betting “under” on this season wins total wager could be taken aback at what will certainly at times be an explosive offense. Jalen Milroe knows how to distribute the ball around, and with three viable backs with guys like Justice Hayes and Jam Miller, along with monsters at receiver like Germie Bernard, this is an offense that has some balance to go with its explosive potential. And it’s not like Kalen DeBoer isn’t just coming off a run where he had the Washington offense among the most lethal in the nation.

Still, while there is some projected growth with Milroe, there are areas in his passing profile that are less than polished. Word out of camp is that he’s really looking good, but that isn’t going to be the final word on this. He surely has the stuff around him to win. But with some issues on the other side on the ball, this unit will have a lot asked of it this season and we’ll see if they can do that kind of heavy lifting.

Even if you blow off the departure of Saban and just figure with Alabama’s always-excellent recruiting, they will once again be stocked, there was a lot of talent that left. That’s especially true in the secondary, where we saw departures and guys going to the NFL, with a large handful of DBs having flown the coup. If the talent they now have registers to a high extent, the upside is tremendous, while growing pains could provide a major obstacle to success.

DeBoer brings with him a nice staff. He’s an offensively-minded coach who will have a hand in the offense in a big way, while his defensive staff is rounded out by capable personnel. The transition might be off-putting to some, but the actual step back in overall coaching might be negligible or non-existent. In fact, there’s a chance we could see DeBoer give this offense a bit of a new edge.

The major issue, however, for the purposes of the “under” seeming more likely is the schedule. There are easier games, like against WKU, Vanderbilt, and Mercer. USF is no cupcake for a team with a new look early in game two. Missouri won 11 games. Instead of a late-November walkover, they have to go into Norman. Add in three more road games of some difficulty, along with a game against top-ranked Georgia, and it’s not the rosiest outlook.

Kalen DeBoer could just be the rising star this team needs, and they take off as the top dog in the SEC. That’s on the table. But so is a season filled with growing pains where they struggle against a tough schedule and have a season well below their normal standards. Cutting out those two more-extreme outcomes, I see the range being more along the lines where if they get a lot to go right, they finish the regular season 10-2. There is just a higher volume of scenarios where they achieve something at least slightly worse than that. I’m taking “under” in Alabama’s season wins total.

Pick:

I’m betting the Alabama Crimson Tide go under 9.5 wins at -145 betting odds. Find this line at Bovada Sportsbook, home of the best live betting platform on the planet and the most football prop bets of any other betting site! They also give you a 50% bonus using credit cards to deposit OR a 75% bonus up to $750 if you use Bitcoin! Awesome deal from an awesome sportsbook!