Alabama at LSU: Jay’s Best Bet for This SEC Showdown

No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. No. 14 LSU Tigers (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 11

Date/Time: Saturday, November 9th, 2024, 3:30PM (EST)

Where: Tiger Stadium Baton Rouge, LA

TV: ABC

Betting Odds

Point Spread: ALA -3/LSU +3

Moneyline: Bama -135/Louisiana St. +115

Total: 59.5

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College Football Playoff implications will be on the line this Saturday when the no. 14 LSU Tigers host the no. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide. At 6-2 SU, both the Crimson Tide and Tigers are one loss away from essentially being eliminated from the playoff picture, which makes this meeting a must-win for both programs. This annual rivalry game known as the “First Saturday in November” has historically been to decide the SEC West, which has produced 3 of the last 6 National Championships, with Georgia claiming two in that same period from the SEC.

With two losses already this season from both programs, neither Alabama nor LSU has shown the elite consistency that we have seen in previous years. Obviously, Alabama is adjusted to life without legendary Head Coach Nick Saban and has dropped 2 of their last four conference games. Meanwhile, LSU suffered that well-publicized loss to USC in the season opener and won 6 straight games before a disappointing loss to no. 14 Texas A&M in their last outing. Despite the different paths, both Alabama and LSU have the opportunity to right the ship and control their playoff destiny if they can emerge from Baton Rouge this Saturday with a victory!

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers Betting Analysis

I find this SEC heavyweight showdown very intriguing from a match-up perspective. The Crimson Tide no longer have the elite defense that we saw for the majority of the Nick Saban era and are more offensively oriented. QB Jalen Milroe is a superb athlete who can break games open at any time. However, Milroe struggles at times with consistency, especially down the field. With that being said, the Crimson Tide are no longer a power-rushing oriented offense and will look to spread the ball around to create space for Milroe and this Alabama receiving corps.

The reason I say this match-up is intriguing is because LSU’s defense has struggled against these types of offenses with a mobile quarterback. The good news, at least offensively, is that LSU’s offense is still very efficient and will have the talent to attack a slightly less fearful Alabama defense than they are accustomed to playing. QB Garrett Nussmeier has been really good, barring the turnover woes, which were apparent in the loss to the Aggies. In that game, Nussmeier still threw for more than 400 yards, and I expect that LSU will look to attack this Alabama defense with receivers Kyren Lacy and Aaron Anderson. The LSU offensive line has only allowed four sacks this season, and if they can create time for Nussmeier again this week, I expect opportunities will open down the field.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers Betting Trends

• Alabama has hit the “over” in 11 of the last 15 games.
• Alabama is 17-3 SU in the last 20 games.
• Alabama has hit the “over” in six of the last seven games on the road.
• Alabama is 11-2 SU in the last 13 games against LSU.
• LSU is 3-6 ATS in the last nine games.
• LSU is 6-1 SU in the last seven games.
• LSU is 14-0 SU in the last 14 games at home.
• LSU has hit the “over” in four of the last five games against Alabama.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers Betting Prediction

This is a difficult game to predict because both teams have been somewhat inconsistent. Obviously, night games in Baton Rouge are not usually favorable to visiting opponents, and I am somewhat inclined to believe that LSU could keep their 14-game home winning streak intact. Expect this to be a back-and-forth game, but I will side with LSU to edge out the win!

Jay’s Pick: Take LSU!

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