Who Covers the Spread in the ACC Championship? Clemson vs. SMU

Clemson Tigers vs. Southern Methodist Mustangs, 12/7/24
When: 8 pm ET Saturday, Dec. 7
Where: Bank of America Stadium
TV: ABC

Betting Odds

Point spreads: Clem +2.5/SMU -2.5
Money line: Clem +115/SMU -135
Over/under: 57

 
A berth in the College Football Playoff is on the line when Clemson and Southern Methodist meet in the ACC championship game Saturday night in Charlotte.
 
The Tigers are playing in this ACC title tilt for the eighth time over the last 10 seasons. And they won those previous seven appearances on their way toward greater things.
 
Meanwhile, the Mustangs are playing in this ACC championship game in their first season in the conference.
 
Clemson’s presence in this game comes as no big surprise, considering the Tigers went off this season at a price of around +400 on most ACC championship betting boards. But SMU was a +1500 shot, which would make for a very nice payday.
 

The Line

 
The CFB Championship Week betting market opened Clemson at -1.5 over SMU, with an O/U of right around 55. Early betting action then flipped the Mustangs into the favorites at -2.5.
 
According to Sagarin’s ratings (Sagarin.com), Southern Methodist should be favored by -4.5 for this game.
 

ACC Championship Betting Preview

 
Clemson reached this ACC championship game by playing 7-1 in conference to finish in second place. The Tigers opened this season with that bad loss to Georgia, then won nine of their next 10 games, mostly against a softer-than-expected slate of conference opponents. Clemson completed its ACC season three weeks ago with a 24-20 victory at Pittsburgh, then finished with a non-conference win over The Citadel (FCS) two weeks ago and a tough 17-14 rivalry loss to South Carolina last Saturday.
 
The Tigers then qualified for this ACC championship game when Miami lost at Syracuse last Saturday night.
 
So Clemson is chasing what would be its eighth conference title over the last 10 seasons.
 
The Tigers led the Gamecocks last Saturday 14-7 through three quarters, then gave up the next 10 points, including a touchdown with just over a minute to go. Clemson then drove last-gasp into field-goal range but threw an interception.
 
The Tigers got out-rushed by the ‘Cocks 267-139.
 
Meanwhile, Southern Methodist reached this ACC championship game by playing a perfect 8-0 in conference to finish atop the standings. The Mustangs started 2-0, then lost a tough game at home to Brigham Young. But SMU then won out from there – the closest call was that crazy overtime game at Duke a few weeks ago – and finished strongly, winning its last two games over Virginia and Cal by a combined score of 71-13.
 
So the Mustangs are chasing what would be their second straight conference championship; they won the AAC last season.
 
SMU, favored by -13 last Saturday against the Bears, led 21-0 at the half and eased home from there.
 
This will be the first-ever meeting between these two programs.
 

By the Numbers

 
Clemson averaged 466 YPG on offense this season, 191 on the ground. Defensively the Tigers held opponents to 357 YPG, 150 on the ground. This while playing what Sagarin ranked as the 60th-toughest schedule in the country.
 
SMU averaged 442 YPG, 178 rushing, while holding foes to 326 YPG, just 96 rushing. This while playing Sagarin’s No. 63 schedule.

Common Opponents

 
These teams played five common opponents this season; Florida State, Louisville, Pitt, Stanford and Virginia Tech. The Mustangs played those foes to 5-0 both SU and ATS and +153 YPG, the Tigers to 4-1 SU, 0-5 ATS and +94 YPG.
 

Totals Report

• The unders played 8-3 in Tigers games this season, which averaged 57 total points.
• The overs played 7-5 in Mustangs games, which are averaging 59 points.

Free ACC Championship Game Pick

 
Clemson might own an edge offensively, but SMU owns the better defense, namely against the run. Also, the Mustangs put on the better performance against common opponents and they finished better. The Tigers have owned the ACC for the last decade, but they’re not quite what they used to be. Meanwhile, Southern Methodist is building a power down in Dallas. We like the Mustangs to win this ACC championship game and advance to the CFP.

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