AAC Win Total Picks 2024: Betting Analysis & Predictions

The college football season is just days away, and now is the time to start getting in all your preseason win total wagers.  Below you will find a breakdown and picks for all American Athletic Conference teams along with a betting trend for each—odds provided by MyBookie.

1. Memphis

Total Wins Over/Under: 9
Over the last fifteen years the Tigers have gone 80-17 at home and they should have little issue continuing that success this season with seven games on the docket at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium that will see them favored by double-digits in each.  Road trips to Tulsa and Navy look like easy wins, and a visit to Tallahassee to take on Florida State can be chalked up as a loss, so matchups against fellow conference title competitors UTSA and USF will likely decide not only whether Memphis hits their victory total but also who comes out victorious in the AAC as well.
PICK: OVER 9
ATS Trend: The Tigers have won 17 of the last 18 games they have been favored in and lost all eight regular season games that saw them as underdogs over the last two years.

2. UTSA

Total Wins Over/Under: 8
In the four years since Jeff Traylor took over as the head coach at UTSA, the team has had four straight winning seasons, won two Conference USA Championships and for the first time ever were ranked in the Top 25 while also winning their first ever bowl game.  They avoid both USF and Tulane on the schedule and get Memphis at home in the Alamodome, where UTSA has gone 21-2 over their last 23 games.   Traylor recently signed a contract extension through 2031 and his success so far speaks for itself, there is no reason to think it won’t continue in 2024.
PICK: OVER 8
ATS Trend: The Roadrunners have done well recently on the road, both straight up and against the spread, having posted a 14-5 record overall in their last 19 away matchups and a 9-3 mark in their last 12 versus the number as a road favorite.

3. Tulane 

Total Wins Over/Under: 7.5
The Green Wave are looking at a 1-2 start to their season with FCS doormat SE Louisiana lined up in week one followed by two brutal non-conference matchups against Kansas State and Oklahoma, but after that are set up well including a six-game AAC stretch that should see them as prohibitive favorites in each.  In looking to not only clear their win total but also get back to their third conference championship, the team also benefits from avoiding both UTSA and ECU while getting South Florida and Memphis at home
PICK: OVER 7.5
ATS Trend: Tulane has done well when picked by Vegas in recent history, winning all 11 regular-season games they were favored in last season and going 37-22 against the spread over their last 59 games when giving points.

4. South Florida

Total Wins Over/Under: 7
The Bulls look locked in to go 2-2 in non-conference games with wins against Bethune-Cookman & Southern Miss along with losses to Alabama and Miami but from there it’s all about how much they can improve on recent AAC terribleness, having gone 4-26 against conference opponents over the past four seasons.  Things thankfully look in favor of a big turnaround, with the Bulls avoiding two of the American’s best in UTSA and ECU while also getting an extra week to prepare for their home matchup against conference favorite Memphis.
PICK: OVER 7
ATS Trend: USF has just one win as a road underdog in the last eight years and is 4-12 in their last 16 as a home favorite.

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5. East Carolina

Total Wins Over/Under: 6
Expecting a five win increase out of a team to hit the over might seem like a lot, but the Pirates schedule definitely has some beneficial elements, namely the avoidance of three of the top four teams in the conference (Memphis, Tulane and South Florida) while also drawing UTSA at home.  They certainly need to improve on their recent road struggles though if they expect to exceed their total, considering they were 1-5 last year in away games and this season have some of their most winnable matchups away from Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium (Charlotte, Tulsa, Army and North Texas).
PICK: OVER 6
ATS Trend: ECU has struggled to cover as a favorite in recent years, going 9-17 against the spread in their last 26 games at home and 9-20 in 29 on the road.

6. Rice

Total Wins Over/Under: 6.5
Two easy wins should start off the Rice season but from there on things get a lot harder with a schedule that includes all four of the top teams in the AAC in Memphis, UTSA, Tulane and South Florida along with a non-conference trip to Houston.  I think they will lose all five of those games, which if you think the same means they would have to run the table in the rest of the games to clear their victory total. The Owls have increased their overall wins each of the last three years; that streak ends in 2024.
PICK: UNDER 6.5
ATS Trend: Rice is 5-10 against the spread in their last fifteen as a home favorite but 6-1 in their last seven as a home underdog with four outright wins, including three in which they were getting at least 8 points.

7. Florida Atlantic

Total Wins Over/Under: 6.5
The Owls schedule lines up for success, with an easy non-conference slate that should see them go 3-1, facing a beneficial home slate (see below in trends) while also dodging both Memphis and Tulane from the top of the AAC.  To clear their over Florida Atlantic will have to figure out how to win consistently on the road though, where they have gone just 5-17 over the last four years.
PICK: OVER 6.5
ATS Trend: FAU is just 4-12 against the spread in their last 16 games as an underdog at home.  This trend will likely be put to the test just once in 2024 with the game against USF the only time they will face an opponent at FAU Stadium this season in which the Owls will be getting points.

8. UAB

Total Wins Over/Under: 6.5
The Blazers had four straight winning seasons before Trent Dilfer arrived as the new coach in 2023 and led them to a 4-8 record.  They will be looking to get things going back in the right direction, considering they have just one road win and one victory as an underdog over the past four years. This season, they have four games that look like wins (Alcorn State, ULM, UConn, Charlotte) and four that don’t (Arkansas, Tulane, USF, and Memphis), and since I don’t think they will go 3-1 against the remaining teams (Army, Navy, Tulsa, Rice), I will be picking them to go under their total.
PICK: Under 6.5
ATS Trend: UAB has played especially well at Protective Stadium over the last few years, going 33-6 straight up since 2017 while also posting an 8-2 record against the spread in their last ten as a home favorite.
 

9. North Texas

Total Wins Over/Under: 5.5
Last season ended a three-year streak of postseason eligibility for North Texas and with a tough schedule in front of them for 2024 I don’t think they will be getting back to a bowl game this year either.  They draw three of the best in the conference (Memphis, UTSA and Tulane) and more importantly have only 3-4 games at most where they will be favored all year.
PICK: Under 5.5
ATS Trend:  The Mean Green have won 14 of the last 15 games they were favored in and have lost 17 of the last 23 in which they were underdogs.
 

10. Army

Total Wins Over/Under: 6
The Black Knights benefit from a schedule that has only four true road games, which is especially helpful for a team that has a 14-46 away record over the last 13 years and also avoids three of the top four teams in the AAC (Memphis, Tulane & South Florida).  Unfortunately, a majority of their most winnable games are away from Michie Stadium, and I do not believe that Army will get to the necessary victory total to eclipse or even reach their projected mark of 6.
PICK: UNDER 6
ATS Trend: Army is 14-6 against the spread over the last ten years in neutral site games.  They have two on the schedule in 2024, Notre Dame and Navy.
 

11. Navy

Total Wins Over/Under: 5.5
Navy should start the season with a 2-0 record with wins against Bucknell and Temple, but after that, a home matchup against Charlotte in October is likely the only remaining game they will be favored in for the remainder of the year.  The Midshipman will hope to continue their success when getting points as more than half of their wins (9 of 16) have come as an underdog over the past four seasons, but they have also ended each of those years with a losing record, and I believe that streak of shoddiness will continue in 2024.
PICK: UNDER 5.5
ATS Trend: Navy is 6-1 against the spread in its last 7 games as a road underdog but 1-5 against the number in its last 6 games as a home favorite.
 

12.  Tulsa

Total Wins Over/Under: 4.5
Tulsa’s win total has declined in each of the last three seasons. Despite avoiding both Memphis and Tulane from the AAC, they find themselves with a less than favorable chance of turning their current streak of sliding inferiority around.  A majority of their most winnable games are on the road where they are just 12-29 over their last 41 games and I can’t imagine them being favored in more than three games total on the season.  Not the best recipe for success.
PICK: UNDER 4.5
ATS Trend: The Golden Hurricanes have been significantly better at covering the spread on the road than at home over the past decade, having posted a 40-20-1 record versus the number away from H.A. Chapman Stadium and 21-32-2 at Tulsa.
 
 

13. Charlotte

Total Wins Over/Under: 3.5
A week three matchup against FCS Gardner-Webb is likely to be the only game that the 49ers will be favored in this season, and even that isn’t a guaranteed victory for a team that as recently as 2022 got blown out at home by 17 points against William & Mary.  Even with five of their last six wins coming as an underdog, I have little faith in Charlotte eclipsing the 3.5-win plateau, especially with fellow AAC cellar dwellers Temple and Tulsa not on their schedule.
PICK: UNDER 3.5
ATS Trend: The 49ers are 9-2 in their last 11 games as a road underdog, a trend that will be tested plenty of times this year as they will be getting points in all six of their matchups away from home.
 

14. Temple

Total Wins Over/Under: 2.5
The Owls are one of the worst teams in college football and are likely to be underdogs in every game this season, a spot that has seen them go 2-8 against the number in their last ten games.  While they have reached three wins each of the last three seasons, without the benefit of an FCS team on their schedule, I don’t think there is a chance they get to that mark in 2024.
PICK: UNDER 2.5
ATS Trend: Temple is 1-20 straight up in their last 21 road games and 4-14 versus the number in their last 18 away from home.