2024 Mountain West Conference Win Total Picks

 Mountain West Conference Win Total Picks 2024

The college football season is mercifully just days away from starting. Get in now on some bargains available within the Mountain West Conference, as seen below. Odds provided by Bovada.

1. Boise State

Total Wins Over/Under: 9.5
Other than Oregon, the Broncos do not play a single other team in the consensus top 70. They get the most difficult of the group (Oregon State and Washington State) at home, where the Broncos have lost just 15 games over the past 22 years. They are easily my favorite total bet of the year in the Mountain West.
PICK: OVER 9.5
ATS Trends: Boise is 34-21-2 against the spread on the road over the past decade and have only been an underdog at home three times in the past 18 years.
 

2. Fresno State

Total Wins Over/Under: 7.5
The Bulldogs have seven games this year against teams they should be a significant favorite in, and only two games will likely be underdogs.  With that math, I am counting on Fresno to do well enough in their other three games to clear their over despite the trend listed below.
PICK: OVER 7.5
ATS Trend:  Of the Bulldogs last ten losses, only two came as an underdog.
 

3. Air Force

Total Wins Over/Under: 6.5
The Falcons should post a 3-1 non-conference record and within the MWC avoid Boise and UNLV. They will get their toughest matchups (Fresno and Oregon State) at home, where AF is 47-11 over the last decade. Air Force is lined up well to not only hit their over but is also the odds-on favorite to capture the coveted Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy in their annual battle against Army and Navy.
PICK: Over 6.5
ATS Trend: Air Force is 7-3 in their last ten games as a home underdog and 19-10-1 in their last 30 anywhere when getting points.
 

4.  UNLV Rebels

Total Wins Over/Under: 7.5
The conference schedule is more positive than negative for UNLV, avoiding Air Force and getting both Boise and Fresno State at home but also having to travel to play a tough matchup against possible future MWC member Oregon State.  How they do against non-conference opponents early will go a long way in shaping their season, especially low-spread matchups at Houston and home against Syracuse.
PICK:
ATS Trend:  The Rebels have done incredibly well on the road against the spread of late, going 6-0 last season, 14-4 over the past three years, and 10-3 in their last thirteen as an underdog.

5. Colorado State

Total Wins Over/Under: 6.5
The Rams have at least one win as a 3.5 point or more underdog in each of the last six years and will need to continue that streak in 2024 if they want to have a chance at hitting their over mark this season.  Due to a non-conference schedule including Texas and Colorado and a repeated inability to succeed in the MWC (six straight years with a losing conf record), I am taking Colorado State to go under their total even with only five road games on the docket.
PICK: UNDER 6.5
ATS Trend:  CSU has had issues covering at home when expected to win, going just 5-14 over the last seven years as favorite at Canvas Stadium, and winning there in general, with a 12-19 record straight up since 2019.
 

6. Utah State

Total Wins Over/Under: 5.5
USU should go 2-2 in non-conference games with USC and Utah the losses and Robert Morris and Temple the victories but after that face a tough MWC slate that includes Boise State and UNLV and misses Nevada and San Jose State.  The Aggies three-year bowl streak will come to an end in 2024.
PICK: UNDER 5.5
ATS Trend: Over the past eight years, Utah State has been much better against the spread when giving points at home than getting them, going 19-7-1 as a favorite and 6-13 as an underdog.
 

7.  Wyoming

Total Wins Over/Under: 6.5
Wyoming was arguably the toughest Mountain West team to judge for 2024, with seemingly half their games a coin-flip matchup.  The Cowboys have managed to post a winning record in seven of the last eight seasons with lesser teams than what they have this year, and I believe they will continue to overachieve and clear their win total.
PICK: OVER 6.5
ATS Trend:  Wyoming has found great success against the spread at War Memorial Stadium over the last few years, going 16-6 in their last 22 games as an underdog and 14-9-2 in their last 25 as a favorite.
 

8. San Diego State

Total Wins Over/Under: 5.5
The Aztecs have the benefit of getting their three most winnable games at home, but after that the schedule doesn’t do them a lot of favors as those may be the only matchups all year where SDS is favored thanks to missing fellow MWC lower tier teams San Jose State and Nevada on the 2024 slate.  They will need to win away from home to have any chance of clearing their over, which is not a good sign for a team that is just 1-10 straight up in their last eleven road games as an underdog.
PICK: UNDER 5.5
ATS Trend:  The Aztecs have had near opposite success against the spread of late in recent years, going 7-18 in their last 25 as a favorite and 12-5-1 in their last 18 as an underdog. 

9.  San Jose State

Total Wins Over/Under: 4.5
The Spartans have just five road games on the schedule for 2024, which is especially ideal for a team that has gone 10-2 in their last 12 at home and 15-43 in previous 58 road matchups.  Unfortunately, San Jose State will not be favored in at least eight games this year, which is definitely not ideal for a team that hasn’t won as an underdog of more than two points since 2020.
PICK: UNDER 4.5
ATS Trend:  SDS is an impressive 20-9 against the spread in their last 29 games as a road favorite, a record that will remain intact after this season as they have little chance of being favored in any of their five matchups away from home.
 

10.  Hawaii

Total Wins Over/Under: 5.5
The Rainbow Warriors have five games on the schedule that should see them as at least a medium-sized favorite. This has boded well for them of late, as they have won their last 15 games in a row when giving four or more points. They have also had a recent run of success as an underdog that should aid them this season, with seven of their last ten wins coming in games in which they were getting points.
PICK: Over 5.5
ATS Trend:  The Rainbow Warriors haven’t been as ferocious against the spread in recent history, going 8-22-2 over the past decade as a home favorite and 23-35 overall on the road.
 

11.  Nevada

Total Wins Over/Under: 2.5
The Wolfpack are 0-2 in their last two games against FCS opponents, and when you can’t even count those as a win, it’s hard to trust a team to get three victories on the season, especially when their schedule misses the worst team in the conference, and they have to travel to get their two best shots at an MWC win.  Even with 13 games on their regular season docket, I still can’t consider taking Nevada to hit their over.
PICK: UNDER 2.5
ATS Trend:  Nevada has gone 2-10 both against the spread and straight up at home over the last two years.
 

12. New Mexico

Total Wins Over/Under: 2.5
The fact that the Lobos are a touchdown+ underdog in week zero against FCS Montana State is enough of a reason to doubt their ability to get three wins on the year.  They also don’t get fellow MWC cellar dwellers San Jose State and Nevada on their schedule and have to travel on the road where they are 3-24 over the last five seasons to play some of their best chances at a victory against New Mexico State, Hawaii and San Diego State.  
PICK: UNDER 2.5
ATS Trend: New Mexico is 2-12 against the spread in their last 14 games as a home favorite and is 1-5 straight up in their last six games as a favorite against FBS opponents.