Yale vs. Penn Betting Analysis & Predictions 2/17/23

Yale (17-6 SU 13-7 ATS) vs. Penn (14-11 SU 12-10 ATS)
When: Friday, February 17th: 7:00 ET
Where: The Palestra Philadelphia, PA
TV: ESPW
Point Spread: Yale -2.5/Penn +2.5
Total: 143.5
Money Line: Yale Bulldogs -146/Penn Quakers +119

The Yale Bulldogs travel to Philadelphia to take on the Pennsylvania Quakers in Friday night Ivy league action. The visitor is a -2 favorite in this match, with the total line offered up at 143 points. Expert handicapper Rich Crew gives out his analysis and projected point spread winner.

Line Movement

This game opened with Yale as a -2 favorite and made a big move to -3/-3.5 at 8:30 AM ET as we were preparing this betting preview. The total has seen some movement opening at 143.5 points and hitting 144.5 on some boards before regressing to 143.5.

Last Game Info

Yale picked up a victory over Columbia by a score of 99-68. Heading into the game, the Bulldogs were favored to win, with a point spread of -19.5. The combined 167 points finished above the 138.5 total line.

Penn will be looking for another win, as they most recently defeated Harvard by a score of 80-72. The Quakers also picked up an ATS victory as they were +2 point underdogs. The combined 152 points finished above the 138.5 total line.

Current Form

Yale
Over their last five games, Yale has a straight-up record of 5-0 while going 4-0-1 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Bulldogs’ offense averages 79.2 points per game while hitting 49.7% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 40.2% from the field while allowing 61.2 points per contest.

Penn
In their previous five contests, Penn is 5-0 straight-up and 4-1 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 81.0 points per game on a shooting percentage of 47.3%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 39.8% of their shots while giving up 68.6 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Yale’s opponents comes in at 73.2. On the other side, Penn’s combined opponent power rating sits at 75.7.

How Does Yale Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Bulldogs have played 13 road games and have a record of 8-5. In these contests, Yale is 9-4 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 70.0 points per game on a shooting percentage of 45.8%. On defense, the Bulldogs allow 63.2 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 40.6% in these games.

How Does Penn Fare At Home?

In their 12 games at home, Penn has a 5-6 record vs. the spread while going 8-4 straight-up. On offense, the Quakers are shooting 47.2% on their home floor, leading to 79.7 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 38.2% in these contests. The Penn defense is allowing 71.2 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Yale is averaging 72.3 points per game (166th) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 44.5%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a Penn defense that has allowed an average of 71.8 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 40.5% of their shots vs. Penn. On the other side, the Penn Quakers are coming into the game averaging 72.0 points per game on a shooting percentage of 44.6%. The Quakers will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 61.3 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 38.1% of their shots vs. the Bulldogs.

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Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Yale has a shooting percentage of 33.0% while ranking 440th in attempts per game. The Bulldogs will be facing a Penn defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 30.7%. Penn enters the game having hit 33.5% of their looks from deep while averaging 8.07 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Yale has allowed opponents to hit 30.0% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note

Yale

• No Reported Injuries

Penn

• No Reported Injuries

Pick Against The Spread

Yale shot only 39.3% from the field in the earlier matchup on their homecourt and still got the win extending the margin late. I just can’t not play them here. The Quakers have won three of four conference home games but lost the only game against top-level competition, getting blown out 72-60 by Princeton. The Bulldogs have the better offense and the better defense and should be able to force Penn into turnovers. Take Yale -3.