Xavier Musketeers vs. Providence Friars Total Pick for 11/13/24

Xavier Musketeers (7-8 SU, 9-5-1 ATS) vs. Providence Friars (11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS)

When: Saturday, January 13th, 2:00 PM (ET)

Where: Amica Mutual Pavilion, RI, Providence

TV: FS1

Point Spread: XAV +3/PROV -3

Total: 142.5

Money Line: Xavier Musketeers +130/-159

Notable Injuries

Musketeers

• Jerome Hunter (Out) Undisclosed
• Zach Freemantle (Out) Foot

Friars

• Bryce Hopkins (Out) Knee
• Justyn Fernandez (Out) Knee

Recent Form

After a loss to Connecticut, Xavier is now 7-8 on the season and 1-3 in Big East play. The Musketeers have lost two straight games and are 1-5 as the underdog this year.

So far, Xavier has gone 1-4 on the road, compared to a 6-4 record at home. Their average scoring margin at home is +8.3 points, while it is -2.8 points on the road.

This season, the over/under record for Xavier games is 6-9, and today’s line of 142.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (147.8). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 137 points, which is lower than the season average (144.6) and the average scoring total in their last ten games (147 points).

As the underdog this season, Xavier has a solid ATS record of 4-1-1. On the road, their ATS mark sits at 3-2, and over their last ten games as the underdog, the Musketeers are 6-3-1 vs. the spread.

Providence enters today’s game as the favorite, as they have been in 11 of their 16 games this season. So far, they have gone 9-2 in those games.

At home this season, the Friars have been dominant, going 10-2 with an average scoring margin of +13.1 points per game. Over their last ten games at home, they have gone 8-2.

Providence’s over/under record for the season is 4-12, and the average scoring total in their games is 137.8. Today’s over/under line of 142.5 is higher than the average OU line in their games (141.6), and there have been more games with fewer points than today’s line (11) than games with more points (5). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 131 points, and their OU record over their last ten games is 4-6.

As the favorite, Providence has gone 6-5 vs. the spread this season, and they are 7-5 at home. Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Friars are 5-5 vs. the spread.

Analysis

In their previous game, the Musketeers’ offense finished with 75 points, which is right in line with their current average of 74.6 points per contest. Currently leading the team in scoring is Quincy Olivari who comes into today’s matchup averaging 18.3. Desmond Claude also heads into the game with a PPG average of 14.8.

At this time, the Musketeers’ defense is positioned 130th in the country, permitting 70.0 points per game. On average, opposing teams are hitting 6.5 threes per game vs. Providence. This has come on a three-point shooting percentage of 30.2%.

The Friars’ offense wrapped up their last game with 73 points, aligning closely with their current season average of 73 points per contest. The top scorer for the Friars was Devin Carter with 31 points, while Jayden Pierre also chipped in with 17 points.

At this time, the Friars’ defense is positioned 40th in the country, permitting 64.8 points per game. So far, the Providence defense is giving up an average of 8.0 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 12.7 times per game (618th).

Betting Trends

• Through their last ten road contests, the Musketeers offense has averaged 70 points per game while allowing an average of 71. Xavier posted an overall record of 3-7 while going 6-4 ATS.
• In their last ten games at home, and the Friars have a straight-up record of 2-8 while going 5-5 vs. the spread. The team averaged 68 points per game in this stretch.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Musketeers have a straight-up record of 3-7 and an ATS mark of 6-3-1.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Friars have a straight-up record of 8-2. Their record vs the spread in these games was 5-5.

Crew’s Total Pick

Providence and the Under has been a profitable bet this season, going 4-11-1 versus the O/U line. Their offense isn’t horrible, but their shooting from behind the arc is with a 220th-ranked 3P%. Their defense has been solid, though, holding the opposition to fewer than 70 points in six of their last seven. The Musketeers’ defense has statistically been above average in FG% (57th) and 3P% (78th) and should be able to keep the Friars’ offense in check. Take the Under 143.5.